Battle for online content hots up

Couple of interesting developments in the battle for online content:

Rupert Murdoch has acquired Skiff from Hearst and a stake in Journalism Online. These two deals are significant because Skiff is an online store for content and an e-reader and Journalism Online is a platform that alllows content producers to charge for content. This is clearly Mr Murdoch buying up the pieces or building blocks required to let people buy and enjoy content online from a wide range of producers over a wide range of access devices. Sound strategy

Google looks likely to launch its own content payment platform newspass. This was rumoured last year but now it appears that its happening and will be live by end of the years according to PaidContent.org.

As the battle hots up the race is on to get the access platform and the payment technology out there and adopted by consumers. Who would you back to win that race?

Home Printing - exciting new frontier

Taken by the news that HP are rolling out next generation of printers.

Central feature is printers with email addresses. This is brilliant. First no more cables and secondly ease of printing from where ever you are and whatever device - simply email whatever you want printed and its waiting for you when you get home. Brilliant

Perfect for our increasingly mobile lifestyles.

What's also significant about this generation of HP printers is the partners they've lined up for their version of the App store. With lots and lots of partners on board printing just got much more interesting.

Now this is something I've long toted. Home printing is going to become really, really important.

We started with word processing docs, moved swiftly to pics and now I believe we will print everything from colouring books for our kids to our favourite daily newspaper.

I forecast that home printing will become an important component in the transformation of the publishing sector in same way smart phones and iPads are.

Web-only TV

We've long taken a keen interest in web-only TV and its been a surprisingly quiet market. But now it seems to have burst into life with the imminent launch of 2 high profile web-only launches in UK.

First off comedy star David Baddiel is debuting in FA Dave, a web-only series on (yes you've guessed it) UKTV's Dave channel.

Fashionistas Trinny and Susannah are back on screen with a web-only series entitled Trinny and Susannah - What They Did Next.

Their 16 episode mockumentry goes out exclusively on ivillage.co.uk and is then available across the web via a group of super distributors.

You can view the trailer of the show right now on their website.

The T&S model might give us a clue about how future commercial models might work. Producers TM5 have sensibly underpinned the show with sponsor money from ivillage and Westfield and are augmenting with ad sales.

Let's see how these two perform but I suggest that if these shows go well they might provide some much needed impetus for the web-only format.

Apple’s market value overtakes Microsoft

on the day that the iPad lands in the UK Apple has overtaken Microsoft to become the largest technology company by market value, crowning a stunning corporate comeback.

After more than three decades of rivalry between Steve Jobs and Bill Gates, the founder of the iPad maker saw his company take the lead on Nasdaq.

When the New York markets closed on Wednesday, Apple was worth $222bn – short only of ExxonMobil. Microsoft was valued at $219bn.

The moment says much about how technology and business strategies are changing. But it is above all a triumph for Mr Jobs who has consistently defied conventional wisdom and taken big risks in new industries with entrenched powers, overthrowing the establishment in the music and mobile phone businesses and staking out new ground.

This clearly says alot about Apple but what does it say about Microsoft? After 3 decades on top and once so powerful it was viewed as anti-competitive and many thought it should be broken up its stumbling.

Beaten in mobile, beaten in games consoles and with software moving to a pay-as-you-use service in the cloud its truly a gloomy moment for them.

Vanity Fair comes to iPad

Conde Nast continues its promised roll-out of print titles for the iPad. Vanity Fair was released late last week for both the iPhone and iPad at $4.99 an issue.

The mobile iterations follow closely the model used in GQ. The full contents of the magazine can be thumbed in facsimile format when the iPad is in landscape mode.

Apparently recognizing recent complaints by iPad users that the single issue pricing of these apps is multiples higher than a subscription rate, Vanity Fair is giving a price break to customers. Once one buys the first iPad edition for $4.99, subsequent months will cost only $3.99. This is still extremely expensive if you consider their current 20 week (2 year) print copy subscription offer is $20.

Having given their content away online for years for free are publishers in danger of now over charging for it!

Maybe? Maybe not?

I suggest that they are pricing high to capture those who will pay a premuim for digital access whilst using high price to illustrate the value of their print subscription offers.

Remember that however well the iPad sells its penetration will never give enough coverage to sustain a digital only model so publishers have to grapple with subscription versus digital price comparision fro years to come.

I dont mind premium prices for the digital format and low prices for the print subscription model particularily for magazines not least because magazine print subscription prices have been historically extremely low and now is certainly not the time to raise subs prices

Happy Birthday YouTube

YouTube turned 5 years old yesterday.

Its proud parent, Google announced that its video-sharing site now has more than 2 billion views -- a day. Amazing

What's more, YouTube, is the third most visited Web site in the world according to Alexa and offers local versions in 23 countries across 24 different languages (70% of its traffic is from outside the United States), receives 24 hours of uploaded video every minute, and garners 45 million home page impressions every day.

Whilst it yet to turn a profit its future looks very bright indeed.

Happy Birthday

FreeIndyStandard?

Interesting to see that while the rest of the media industry stresses about digital strategy, convergence and up and coming technology driven consumer trends, the Lebedev's are focusing very much on the nuts and bolts of the "old" media world.

We've been suggesting for a while that the Independent and Standard would end up sharing editorial resource, though in our view, it may go further than the reports this morning that the process may be starting. Currently this looks likely to extend to a shared foreign reporting presence at the World Cup, cutting the cost of content generation for both loss making titles.

Well, it makes sense, and would be a good start in combining the newsroom. Rolling forwards, would Standard readers mind if their content was written with an Independent hat on? Probably not, but vice versa?

Reports also that the Indy will be going free within the M25 - presumably piggybacking the existing Standard distribution network. Lebedev is saying that the Standard should be profitable in 2011 as the new ad reveneues gained since the Standard went free are starting to beat previous combined ad+circ rev. If so, well done, a brave move that has paid back, and one that I doubted would work out. But, and it's a big but, the Independent spent the best part of 20 years "breaking even next year" without ever quite making it.

So long iPlayer

We've just taken delivery of our first Apple iPad and it is as lovely in the flesh as we've been told.

I dont intend here to add to the rave reviews but rather point out something that startled me.

As you've read elsewhere Apple and Adobe don't like each other and as a result there is no Flash on the iPad (nor the iphone). You know what this means - no BBC iplayer! and what that means is the millions and millions of users who now use hugely popular iPlayer weekly will not ne able to so on their shiny new iPad.

In many ways this is a shame. The iPad is a device that might as well have been made for the iPlayer. It's absolutely perfect for it.

So whats the BBC to do? Two choices:

They could create a non flash version of iPlayer for the soon to be millions of iPad customers or as is more likely stick with Adobe and lose the custom of the iPad crowd.

So long iPlayer my loyalty is with the iPad.

Newspaper market is bad - Music is worse

Global recorded music sales shrank by 7.2%, from $18.3 billion to $17 billion, through 2009.

What this means is the industry has been sale decline each year since 1999.

Digital sales grew 9.2 percent and now make up over a quarter of all music income…

But the extra $363 million brought in by digital last year still wasn’t even close to offsetting $1.74 billion lost from physical sales.

Source: International Federation of the Phonographic Industry’s Recording Industry In Numbers report.

What to do?

Well our tonic to improve the health of the music sector would be the following:

1. Understand buyers better - who they are and what they buy. This basic knowledge is critical (but still largely absent).

2. Build greater sense of community around listening types. Last FM etc has proven people are drawn together by shared musical taste. Build communities around taste and market to them

3. Recognise and actively reward the few who pay for digital music. Continue to chase out the illegals but not at expense of the legals. 

4. Dont be afraid of useage rather than ownership model pushed by players like Spotify and Beyond Oblivion and recognise its better to get small payment from everybody than as currently a large payment from a few.

6. Love the talent. Without it there is no industry!

7. Don't be afraid to go digital retail only. Saves on production, distribution, sales commission and critically stock risk. 

8. Merchandising. Hugely under leveraged by the industry and worth a fortune. Recognise that recorded music powers broad and valuable consumer lifestyle habits. Get in on the act directly.

Apple's stellar universe

85m iPhones and iPod touches sold from zero in 2007

4 billions Apps downloaded

10 billion songs downloaded

33m movies downloaded

250m tv shows downloaded

iPhone users who represent 2.2% of total mobile phone market but chug 64% of all browsing minutes

500,000 iPads sold since launch

185,000 apps on App store

125,000 app developers on contract but effectively working for free

iAd which lets advertisers make inventive messages appear inside apps launches in summer

Share price $3 to $247

Historic Ninety Minutes that could change the Election

Today marks a historic day. Its the first ever live UK TV Election Debate.

I have high hopes that even in the completely de politicised UK the debate will cause a wave of interest and excitement amongst voters. The Independent suggests this morning from a poll it commissioned that 30 million people will tune in and of those 50% say that the debate could influence the way they vote. Wow - thats 15m votes up for grabs.

Inspite of the oh so very typically British need for rules (and in this case 70 rules) to govern the event I am looking forward to a contest that reveals more to the public about each of the candidates than we are able to glean from PR prepared set pieces and carefully orchestrated policy statements.

The Q&A will be dull. All possible chance of excitement killed off by Candidate preparation, schooling and spin. The part that interesting is the debate itself where the 3 of them are let loose on each other. Its a relatively short segment so make sure you're back from making cup of tea or you risk missing it.

Alongside 30m others we will be listening in but not just as voters but as insight managers. We will be monitoring, analysing and reporting on all the chatter on Twitter and Facebook to see how the candidates are performing. We will be recording personal sentiment and comparing it regionally. With the stakes so high its going to be fascinating evening.

Social media channels and clever insight technology is giving us the opportunity - for the first time - to listen to the groundswell and to reveal actual sentiment. Check back with us as we will be posting results from all 3 of the live debtaes on a specially created Market Evolution election blog.

Mobile drives 5th Major Technology Cycle

The modern world is presently experiencing its fifth major technology cycle of the past half a century, according to the latest "State of the Internet" report from Mary Meeker, Morgan Stanley's managing director and global technology research head.

In what shouldn't come as a shock to readers of this blog, the two key trends driving this latest shift are mobile and social networking.

Within the next five years "more users will connect to the Internet over mobile devices than desktop PCs," according to Meeker.

Also -- based on adoption rates of iPhone/iPod touch compared to that of AOL and Netscape in the early 1990s -- Meeker says that mobile Internet usage is increasing substantially faster than desktop Internet usage did. Indeed, adoption of the Apple devices is taking place more than 11 times faster that of AOL, and several times as fast as that of Netscape.

Supporting this trend is 3G technology, which Morgan Stanley says recently hit an "inflection point" by being available to more than 20% of the world's cellular users.

Read the whole story at GigaOm.

Disappointing news from Apple

Apple has delayed the international launch of the iPad until the end of May because it has sold more devices (over half a million) than it anticipated.


Here’s the official announcement:


“Although we have delivered more than 500,000 iPads during its first week, demand is far higher than we predicted and will likely continue to exceed our supply over the next several weeks as more people see and touch an iPad™. We have also taken a large number of pre-orders for iPad 3G models for delivery by the end of April.

Faced with this surprisingly strong US demand, we have made the difficult decision to postpone the international launch of iPad by one month, until the end of May. We will announce international pricing and begin taking online pre-orders on Monday, May 10.

We know that many international customers waiting to buy an iPad will be disappointed by this news, but we hope they will be pleased to learn the reason—the iPad is a runaway success in the US thus far.”

The End of Bebo?

It looks as though the once wildly popular Bebo is on the rack.

If memory serves it was the hottest property around and was fought over by the likes of Yahoo only to fall to AOL on an exuberant valuation for $850m two years ago.

Well its no longer seen as 'core' at AOL and as they readily admit they don't have the money for the fight against Facebook.

Here a snip from the AOL memo:

“Bebo, unfortunately, is a business that has been declining and, as a result, would require significant investment in order to compete in the competitive social networking space. AOL is not in a position at this time to further fund and support Bebo in pursuing a turnaround in social networking"

All this is a long way from what was said at the time :-

"This is a tremendous acquisition and one I think is game-changing for AOL," said the company's chairman and chief executive, Randy Falco. "Bebo will be the cornerstone of our strategy."

Apple iPad sales update

Apple sold 300,000 iPads in the U.S. as of midnight Saturday, April 3, the company announced Monday.

That total includes pre-ordered units delivered to customers and sales partners as well as Apple store sales.

iPad sells quicker than iPhone

The latest estimates for iPad sales may surprise even the most optimistic Apple watchers:

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster puts the number at 600,000-700,000 this weekend, including pre-orders.

By comparison, it took Apple more than 70 days to sell 1 million iPhones after the initial launch.

The Times & Sunday Times pay walls

Phew its finally out in the open

We've all been thinking about pay walls for months and months now so it feels quite a relief that Murdoch's strategy for The Times and Sunday Times is finally out in the open.

The payment mechanism makes sense to me. At £1 a day or £2 a week they've priced it 'to go'. Its priced absolutely to encourage people away from the daily spend into the weekly committment. Why spend £1 a day when I can spend £2 for the whole week etc

The reason this is sensible is that there is an increasing recognition amongst publishers that its good business to have fewer people comitted to spending something and than large numbers comitted to spending nothing at all!

I know this sounds obvious but its taken publishers some time to get here. Lifetime value is finally becoming more central to the way publishers look at customers . For too long publishers ignored the value of relationship with readers. Now they are wide awake to the fact is of critical importance and its where the value lies.Hooray

With this payment structure they are incentivising readers through low weekly prices to make a committment. Once committed they are hooked and can be sold other bits and pieces.

Its going to be fascinating to see how many sign up and on which of the two tariffs.

I'm less concerned by the damage to visitor numbers as the advertising led commercial model around eyeballs was not working. I'm glad its moving on.

I had another thought.

Why would I continue to buy a newsagent copy of the TT and ST paying £1 a day, £1.50 on saturday and £2 on sunday when I can simply pay £2 for the week for digital access and save £5.50 a week (a massive £250 a year).

Am I alone in thinking that the digital offer might infact impact on cover price revenues as people do the maths and swap to digital access. Would'nt that be something?

Now this may not matter as its obviously far cheaper to produce a digital 'copy' and therefore the margin on £2 is probably greater that it is on the £5.50 physical copy (not paper, no printing, no distribution etc).

Lets see. Whatever happens the market is moving and its a relief

Sunday Times Ad

Id forgotten about this lovely ad we made a while back for the Sunday Times. Shot with Ian Dury shortly before died. RIP

Marie Claire iPad

Carolyn McCall takes to the skies

Guardian Media Group CEO Carolyn McCall is flying off to become chief executive of European budget airline easyjet

In the media world truth is stranger than fiction!!

Murdoch parks his tanks on N Y Times lawn

In an attempt to eat into The New York Time's mass market audience and tempt away some of its luxury advertisers The Wall Street Journal is launching a local news section for New York.

The daily news section, starts on 12 April, will average 12 pages and include daily real estate, culture, business and particularly sport.

Its unlikely that it will cause the NYT undue pressure in circulation sales but that's not the intention. This is about local retail premium advertisers.

At best this gives advertisers an opportunity to attack ad rates which is not to be encouraged and at worst its provides a viable alternative and a chance to switch.

This is unwelcome and uncomfortable for NYT who alongside all newspapers is having a hard time of it.

Its another front in the escalating turf war between these two titan titles.

News Corp (owner WSJ) is quite open about its expansion plans.

We will watch with great interest

Full story can be read here

Time sharpen your marketing axe

Once upon a time, a very strong woodcutter asked for a job with a timber merchant, and he got it. The pay was really good, and so were the work conditions. For that reason, the woodcutter was determined to do his best. His boss gave him an axe and showed him the area where he was supposed to work.

The first day, the woodcutter brought in 18 trees, and of course his boss congratulated him. Motivated by his boss' words, the woodcutter tried harder the next day, but he could only bring in 15 trees. The third day he tried even harder, but he could only bring in 10 trees. Day after day he was bringing in fewer and fewer trees.

The woodcutter thought he was losing his strength, and he went to the boss and apologized, saying that he couldn't understand what was going on. His boss then asked, "When was the last time you sharpened your axe?" Appalled by the question, the woodcutter harshly replied, "Sharpen my axe? I have no time to do that. I've been busy cutting trees."

Apple ipad and USA Today (and Marriott)

Content providers may be thrashing about sending themselves crazy about what to do with the coming iPad tablet. Not USA Today, which has secured a rather un-Internet-like, dual-revenue stream as it debuts.

The paper will employ a subscription model, while a deal with Marriott Hotels has the hotel chain funding its iPad presence from day one. The sponsorship will last for the first four months after the device's April debut.

Whilst this is an rather traditional and dare i say it old fashioned approach its a practical one and one that newspapers know how to arrange and negiotate.

David Hunke, USA Today's president and publisher says the tie-up will
"do a lot to get ... our designs in front of many, many people,"

"Our guys were very excited about the opportunity -- we will be there," said Hunke in a gathering with analysts last week. "It will be classic, very unique USA Today design that was built for this device, as it was for the iPhone in a previous generation."

China big in mobile internet

By the end of this year, there will be more more mobile Internet users in China than the entire population of the US, according to eMarketer. The 2010 estimate of the size of the United States population stands at roughly 310 million people, according to Wikipedia.

Also, according to the report, the number of mobile Internet users in China will grow to reach a jaw-dropping 957 million by 2014.

Of course, those mobile Internet users don't presently "monetize" as well as Western audiences, i.e., mobile advertising spending in China is still low relative to the size of the mobile Web user base. But its only a matter of time

Is Facebook bigger than Google?

New data released from analytics service Hitwise today names Facebook the largest website in the U.S. with 7.07% of all U.S. visits. Google is second at 7.03%. Yahoo Mail is third with 3.8% and Yahoo is fourth at 3.67%

This is the first time Hitwise has named Facebook the top site in the U.S. Comscore still ranks Google the top site by reach at 81% of the U.S. population. Facebook, at 53%, is still behind Google, Yahoo and Microsoft sites in the U.S., according to the most recent Comscore data from February 2010. Source: Techcrunch

Tiger Woods to return to golf

News Flash -- Tiger Woods will return to golf and play at the Masters Tournament in Augusta, Ga., in April, according to media reports Tuesday. Woods last played in November winning the Australian Masters before going on hiatus because of a widely publicized sex scandal.

Wow imagine the viewing figures for his tee-off. They are going to be a vast.

Checking - in

All the buzz swirling around social app Foursquare is good news for mobile advertising.

For years we've been promised location based services and the ability to match location with personal offers. Now with apps like Foursquare and Gowalla users are happy to reveal their location by 'checking in' giving advertisers permission to hit them based on location.

The check-in model is more attractive than constant tracking because it gives people more choice in disclosing their locations. And its gathering pace.

Foursquare has swelled to more than 500,000 users and has more than 1.6m 'check-ins' a weeks from around the world. Gowalla says it has 100,000 people using its application. Facebook is expected to adopt the 'check-in' method when it introduces location features in coming months.

One drawback with 'check-in' as opposed to constant monitoring is that people have to remember to use a service, but just as people have successfully got into the habit of tweeting they'll learn the habit of checking in.

If 'checking-in' goes mainstream its going to be good news for advertisers as it allows them to do some interesting things like coupons and offers based on location.

Read this and weep

More bad news I'm afraid for the news industry.

The latest US mega study from the masters of media research Pew has found in a long report a lots more depressing insights. Here is a few for you:

• 82 percent will go somewhere else to get news if their favorite site starts charging

• Only 35 percent told Pew they had a favorite news site, which means the number the study says would be willing to pay is closer to 7 percent of all online news users.

• For those with a favorite site and willing to pay they prefer a subscription fee to micropayments by 54 percent to 24 percent.

• 81 percent said they didn’t mind online ads but 77 percent said they either don’t click on them (42 percent) or “hardly ever” click (35 percent)

Its well worth reading the long study - State of News Media 2010. Its an excellent snapshot of the US New market with lots of stats and facts on how bad it is in traditional media.

The Report, also, does a reasonable job at breaking out all the new and exciting things that are going on, but then slaps us back by saying that the new stuff doesnt come close to replacing whats been lost!

Probably the best bit of the Report is the Major Trends so here they are in full:

Major Trends

For 2010, we want to emphasize six points.

As we learn more about both Web economics and consumer behavior, the unbundling of news seems increasingly central to journalism's future. The old model of journalism involved news organizations taking revenue from one social transaction -- the selling of real estate, cars and groceries or job hunting, for example -- and using it to monitor civic life -- covering city councils and zoning commissions and conducting watchdog investigations. Editors assembled a wide range of news, but the popularity of each story was subordinate to the value, and the aggregate audience, of the whole. And the value of the story might be found in its consequence rather than its popularity. That model is breaking down. Online, it is becoming increasingly clear, consumers are not seeking out news organizations for their full news agenda. They are hunting the news by topic and by event and grazing across multiple outlets. This is changing both the finances and the culture of newsrooms. When revenue is more closely tied to each story, what is the rationale for covering civic news that is consequential but has only limited interest? The data also are beginning to show a shift away from interest in local news toward more national and international topics as people have more access to such information, which may have other effects on local dynamics.

The future of new and old media are more tied together than some may think. A new multi-university study released in this report finds that even the best new-media sites in the country still have limited ability to produce content. No doubt they will evolve. Yet their reportorial capacity ultimately will still depend on finding a revenue model far larger than what exists today or is projected to come from conventional online advertising. While there are some competing values and different reportorial cultures, in the end new and old media face the same dilemma and may be much more aligned in their search for revenue than many have thought. In some cases, there will be formal alliances or networks of new and old media. One concept that will get more attention is collaborations of old media and citizens in what some call a "pro-am" (professional and amateur) model for news. Yet how traditional news organizations cope with such partnerships, the rules for what is acceptable and what is not, remain largely uncharted.

The notion that the news media are shrinking is mistaken. Reportorial journalism is getting smaller, but the commentary and discussion aspect of media, which adds analysis, passion and agenda shaping, is growing -- in cable, radio, social media, blogs and elsewhere. For all the robust activity there, however, the numbers still suggest that these new media are largely filled with debate dependent on the shrinking base of reporting that began in the old media. Our ongoing analysis of more than a million blogs and social media sites, for instance, finds that 80% of the links are to U.S. legacy media. The only old media sector with growing audience numbers is cable, a place where the lion's share of resources are spent on opinionated hosts. One result may be the rising numbers in polling data that show 71% of Americans now feel most news sources are biased in their coverage and 70% feel overwhelmed rather than informed by the amount of news and information they see. Quantitatively, argument rather than expanding information makes up the growing share of media people are exposed to today.

Technology is further shifting power to newsmakers, and the newest way is through their ability to control the initial account of events. For now at least, digital technology is shifting more emphasis and resources toward breaking news. Shrinking newsrooms are asking their remaining ranks to produce first accounts more quickly and feed multiple platforms. This is focusing more time on disseminating information and somewhat less on gathering it, making news people more reactive and less pro-active. It is also leading to a phenomenon in which the first accounts from newsmakers -- their press conferences and press releases -- make their way to the public often in a less vetted form, sometimes close to verbatim. Those first accounts, sculpted by official sources, then can spread more rapidly and widely now through the power of the Web to disseminate, gaining a velocity they once lacked. That is followed quickly by commentary. What is squeezed is the supplemental reporting that would unearth more facts and context about events. We saw this clearly in our study of news in Baltimore, but it is reinforced in discussions with news people. While technology makes it easier for citizens to participate, it is also making giving newsmakers more influence over the first impression the public receives.

The ranks of self-interested information providers are now growing rapidly and news organizations must define their relationship to them. As newsrooms get smaller, the range of non-journalistic players entering the information and news field is growing rapidly. The ranks include companies, think tanks, activists, government and partisan activists. Some are institutions frustrated by the shrinking space in conventional media and the absence of knowledgeable specialists to cover their subjects. Others are partisans and political interests trying to exploit a perceived opportunity in journalism's contraction. There are varying degrees of transparency about the financing and intentions of these efforts. Some are quite clear. Others present themselves as purely journalistic and independent when in fact they are funded by political activists, yet only by digging and cross-referencing websites can the agenda and financing be divined. In an age where linking and aggregation are part of journalism, news organizations must decide how they want to interact with this growing cohort of self-interested information players. Will they pick up this material and disseminate it? Can they possibly police it? Can they afford to ignore it? The only certainty is that these new players are increasingly vying for the public's and the media's attention, and their resources, in contrast to that of traditional independent journalism, are growing.

When it comes to audience numbers online, traditional media content still prevails, which means the cutbacks in old media heavily impact what the public is learning through the new. An analysis in this year's report of online audience behavior, extrapolated from Nielsen Net Ratings data, finds that 80% of the traffic to news and information sites is concentrated at the top 7% of sites. The vast majority of the top news sites (67%), moreover, are still tied to legacy media financed largely by their shrinking end of the business.³ New media are growing, but their ranks among the most trafficked sites are still small. Another 13% of these news sites are aggregators, whose content is derived from legacy media. Only 14% of these sites are online-only operations that produce mostly original reportorial content rather than commentary. In short, the cutbacks in old media are not only drastically affecting traditional media but significantly impact online content as well.

Google versus Newspapers - battle continues

Newspapers have blamed Google for their woes, and Google, in turn, has helped remind newspapers that they did a pretty good job of digging their own grave.

The latest haymaker in this heavy weight punch up is from Chief Economist Hal Varian, in a speech to the FTC today. Below, the big takeaways from Varian’s remarks, which are drawn from a longer post

• People spend more time brushing their teeth than reading news online: “The average amount of time looking at online news is about 70 seconds a day, while the average amount of time spent reading the physical newspaper is about 25 minutes a day. Not surprisingly, advertisers are willing to pay more for their share of readers’ attention during that 25 minutes of offline reading than during the 70 seconds of online reading. So even though online advertising has grown rapidly in the last five years, it appears that somewhat less than 5% of newspapers’ ad revenue comes from their internet editions, according to the most recent Newspaper Association of America data.”

• Special’ sections aren’t special any more: “Traditionally, the ad revenue from ... special sections [like automotive, travel etc.] has been used to cross-subsidize the core news production. Nowadays internet users go directly to websites like Edmunds, Orbitz, Epicurious, and Amazon to look for products and services in specialized areas.”

• One consolation: “There are huge cost savings associated with online news. Roughly 50% of the cost of producing a physical newspaper is in printing and distribution, with only about 15% of total costs being editorial. Newspapers could save a lot of money if the primary access to news was via the internet.

Lets stick with the positives.

The Googler is right lets move the primary access channel digital and enjoy the cost savings.

For those that want the newspaper as paper thats absolutely fine. They subscribe and the newspaper is delivered to their homes i.e becomes a premuim service based on their needs and choice.

For the rest its digital access - online, over mobile and increasingly over e-readers - enjoyed for micro payments

As we have said before the content needs to adapted, evolved and improved for digital access and enjoyment but thats not only possible its preferable - digital releases content and gives it wings......

Apple at the Oscars

The glamour, dresses and feigned looks of surprise returned on Sunday evening with the Oscars holding their annual movie jamboree. Alongside the shoes, dresses and hairstyles sat a number of businesses paying top dollar for advertising space. One such company was Apple who choose the awards ceremony as its first external showcase for the new iPad. Sadly, unlike many historic Apple ads in the past the iPad did little to excite many in the media.

It rather blandly begins with the obviously airbrushed hands of a man picking up the tablet, checking out some videos and then reading the New York Times – an unsurprising app to choose since the NY Times has already been highlighted by Apple at the launch of the iPad as a new revolutionary way of reading the news. Overall the ad tended to suggest the iPad is going to be aimed at the mainstream, a belief backed up by its accessible price tag, but did little to suggest the product is going to revolutionise the technological world in the same way the iPhone did to telecoms. A shame, as the creative genius behind the technology is usually matched in their communications.

A launch date of April 3rd in the US, with the UK following later that month, will be the real test. Commentators continue to say that this is a device that needs to be touched and handled to appreciate its true value. We’re looking forward to putting that to the test.

Big news: social is bigger than search

Facebook is now the top source of traffic for major news and entertainment portals such as Yahoo and MSN, according to traffic analysis firm Compete, and is “among the leaders” for other sites as well.

Although far from conclusive, this is just another sign of how the “social web” is becoming an increasingly dominant force in terms of driving traffic flows on the Internet — and that in turn makes it a growing threat for major web players such as Google, MSN and Yahoo.

Compete’s director of online media and search told the San Francisco Chronicle that a snapshot of web traffic from December showed 13 percent of the traffic to major web portals like Yahoo, MSN and AOL came from Facebook. Traffic from Google generated just 7 percent, which Compete said actually put it third in traffic sources behind eBay, which accounted for 7.6 percent.

If your core business depends on controlling and/or getting a piece of the web’s traffic flow, as it does for many of the Companies we are interested in, the social web is something you ignore at your peril.

Social web is a major focus for us and its why we are hooking up with really smart companies such as CitizenNet. These guys are experts in monitoring and managing social marketing campaigns and the stuff they are doing is very powerful.

Tiger replaced by elephant

Has anyone else seen the Accenture ads in Heathrow lately?

As you may remember they used to star Mr Tiger Woods. Well now - sticking with the animal theme - Tiger has been replaced by an Elephant on a surf board!

oh the irony......

Lebedev on verge of getting Indie

Ive just returned from South Africa where I got it on very good, very senior authority that the Indie deal is done and the buyer is Lebedev.

So disregard all the rumors of other buyers and of interest from 'prominent UK family' and watch the Indie story unfold under new ownership.

On strength of todays NRS news that Standard's readership has increased 113% since it went free its probably a fair assumption that Indie will try something similar along free or part free lines.

It could get very interesting as triple digit readership growth at the Indie (if it happened) would be a big enough event to cause advertisers to sit up and take notice of the paper for the first time in 15 years and it might even cause the Telegraph and Times mild concern.

Redundancy Deals at the Indy stopping Lebedev takeover?

Picking up on this morning's MediaGuardian lead story, to get the Lebedev deal done, journalists will be asked to halve their redundancy terms from 4 weeks pay for every year served, to 2 weeks pay, a number of things spring to mind.

Mr Lebedev obviously has grand plans to strip the carcass of the Indy even further back, which suggests a joint Standard/Indy editorial resource.

If there are journalists still at the Indy who have previously turned down a generous four week offer for each year served, that's surprising in itself. "Independent to finally break even next year" is a headline that's been trotted out every year for a while. To be left at the end of the dance, without chance of getting the same deal as everyone else, must be particularly hurtful.

As a combined business model - free London edition, with a free national edition - using the same resources - it's an interesting idea. How to distribute the national free paper and make it pay, will be a massive challenge, before getting onto branding issues.

We wait with interest

Farewell Times 2?

Reports this morning that Times 2 is to be axed, after a somewhat troubled life.

Born in a different age, when Editorial whim could predict a circulation uplift and bypass a business case, T2 ended up being a dumping ground for features, TV and fluffier content.

It never really worked, despite numerous re-launches and editorial changes, and never managed to carve out a niche as a destination section, rather than a generic catch-all.

Doubt it'll be missed by many, but will the main book improve with the absorption of the better T2 content? Placing the features pages back in will prove a harder challenge than pulling them all out, as there is the potential to disrupt the flow between domestic - international - business - obits and then into sport.

But then, that's why the Editor gets the big bucks, to make the best use of available content. Bit harder to do this on a print newspaper, than on a website, but that's the value of experience.

Two Dozen Carriers Worldwide Unite Against Apple’s App Store

Two dozen of the world's largest mobile-phone companies, including Verizon, AT&T, NTT DoCoMo, Deutsche Telekom, China Mobile and Vodafone, are teaming up to create an "open international applications platform,".

This is 'the industry's' response to Apple's success with its own iPhone App Store.

The announcement was made this morning at Mobile World Congress.
In addition to the 24 carriers, the GSMA and three handset manufacturers—LG, Samsung and Sony Ericsson —are also supporting the initiative.

Combined, the group reaches 3 billion subscribers worldwide, making it easily the largest app-store initiative.

This 'stop Apple' initiative is an extraordinary cross industry alliance and shows just how scared the industry is by Apple's success.

Will it work?

Alliances of this scope are exceedingly complicated on a human and technological basis.

Its also significant that there are massive players missing - Google is missing, no. 1 handset manufacturer Nokia is missing and Telefonica is missing.....

So let's wait and see.

In the meanwhile Apple and Google will continue to shake-up the industry and ultimately consumers will benefit so that's to the good.

Lebedev Gets Two More Weeks On Exclusive Independent Sale Talks

Alexander Lebedev, the billionaire Russian and owner of the Evening Standard is getting a two week extension on his exclusive negotiations to buy the Independent and Independent On Sunday newspapers. Extension enables him "to facilitate bringing these discussions to a successful conclusion"


Toby Constantine
Director | Market Evolution Ltd

Research | Analysis | Insight | Advice | Action


Sent from my handheld

iPad

Apple's forthcoming iPad tablet will cost as little as $229.35 for the company to produce, according to an estimate on Wednesday from research house iSuppli.

This makes things interesting doesn't it.

This lowish cost of production might well make it affordable (and viable) for publishers to package subscriptions with e-readers.

As we've written before we believe that this would prove popular with a broad cross section of consumers and is the model of the future.

We will run the maths and report back.

Toby Constantine
Director | Market Evolution Ltd

Research | Analysis | Insight | Advice | Action

Sent from my handheld

Yahoo! and Creme Eggs use Consumer Connect

Interesting looking development from Yahoo! working with Nectar data to target advertising at consumers based on their previous purchase history. Cadburys have become the first brand to properly engage with the service for their Creme Egg campaign.

We like smart uses of consumer data, this would look like a positive step forward.

Recession even hits the Premier League?

Spending in this year's January transfer window by Premier League football clubs ended up at about £30m, with £7m coming from a single player, Adam Johnson. This is well down on the £170m splashed out last year. Loans played a much larger part in plans this time round, with clubs reluctant to commit the cash.

So, is this a sign of the recession forcing belt tightening in the top flight? With the saga at Portsmouth becoming more dangerous (and ridiculous) as each day passes, and debt levels rising to worrying levels at other clubs, has the Premier League woken up to the realities of the consumer recession?

Short answer is obviously no, the TV revenue outweighs the money through the turnstile, but there is a definite sense that spending patterns have changed for a large number of clubs.

On a different subject, the first 3D broadcast of a live game was well reported and apparently well received. Will it catch on? I'd like to think so, but it will create fans-only pubs on match days, can't see it working well for non-footballing partners standing around without daft glasses on.

iPad

Lots has already been written about the ipad.

The nay sayers damn it as just an over sized iTouch and its fans say it's a radical step forward in convergence.

Whatever your point of view I'm pretty sure of 2 things:

1. consumer will buy it and in large numbers forcing more innovation, me-too products, and ultimately mass adoption. A great thing.

2.Whilst the ipad won't on its own 'save' print media (how can it?) it's launch marks a significant moment in the print industry's revolution - the moment when industry and consumer saw for themselves the future.

I'm a fan and I say thank you to Apple

Now it's time for the publishing industry to WAKE UP, stop whining and create e-content that people will 'want' to pay for.

The technology is arriving but it's less sure that the content is there to run on it.

The iPad - the future?

Yesterday saw the very high profile launch of the new Apple product - the iPad. Despite the fact it was widely expected to take the world by storm and signal the death of the increasingly popular Netbook it seems that the majority of the world's press have been left largely underwhelmed. Half an inch thick and weighing in nicely at 1 1/2 pounds the iPad looks the part but is it essentially just too big? Many insiders were expecting something that would actually fit in a pocket rather than have to be carried in a bag.

It is clear that Apple are aiming for people who are already their customers, the pad contains many similarities with the phone and the touch but the practicalities of its size are already being discussed. It is far smaller and lighter than a laptop, will undoubtedly be slicker and sleeker but it also clearly not aimed for business. It will seemingly be difficult to work on and so is aiming at the market as a leisure device. But can it actually do enough to be considered a ‘must have’?

The iPad has very little that is new or different from an iPhone and it appears that internet browsing and e-books are the fundamental selling points. Apple have signed deals with several major publishers including Penguin and HarperCollins and the iPad has an impressive library format for storing the books and an equally appealing reading format, described by many to be as close to reading a book without actually holding it in your hands.

Interestingly, Apple have also struck a deal with the New York Times who have specifically designed an app that showcases the power of the iPad perfectly, allowing readers to view content filled video clips immersed within an article. It is clear the NYT feels very strongly that the iPad will be a success, "The iPad combines the best of print with the best of digital, all rolled up in to one," according to Martin Nisenholtz, a senior executive at the newspaper, "It's something you can really immerse yourself in. We're pioneering the next version of digital journalism." This sounds like a full multi-media experience, bringing static content neatly to life.

A bold statement indeed, could this really be the future of digital news? Would people be more willing to pay for content on an iPad (or similar) than on a netbook or PC? Perhaps, perhaps not. Our thought is that it is just slightly too big for the pocket and surely liable for damage in a bag, if you wanted to read from it, or play a game, or surf the net surely it would be easier if your device was pocket size and less obvious?

It is definitely too early to say how well the iPad will sell, still relatively few people have actually seen one in action, but what we can be sure about though is that competitors will be quickly developing their own alternatives and that Apple have, once again, pushed technology firmly, but accessibly, into the future.

Would KRM sell Times Newspapers?

Rumours are the fuel that keeps the media bonfire burning warmly during these cold winter days, and there's a very interesting one doing the rounds at the moment. Is Times Newspapers Ltd up for sale? Acquired in 1981 by Rupert to sit alongside the more profitable News Group Newspapers, and undoubtedly occupying a place in the great man's heart, this rumour would in recent times have been laughable.

Now though, could there be a grain of truth in it? With the move to digital paywalls imminent, and the group registering £50m+ losses in recent years, would NewsCorp consider disposing of this prize asset? With James having firmly replaced Les, is their enough ink in the blood at the top of the tree to keep the Papers at any cost? The recent decision to move from free home delivery to paid for delivery for Times+ customers, and increase the cover price to £1, suggests a need to tighten up on revenues is moving further through the business. It'll be interesting to see how many customers drop the home delivery now that a weeks worth of newspapers will cost them over a tenner.

Throw into the mix the ruling by Ofcom that Sky has to wholesale its prized sport assets, diluting potential profitability, then these are challenging times across the News Corp portfolio.

That said, it's one of the few newspaper groups I'd buy at the moment. Good audience, a lot of good strategic work already done, maybe all it needs is to be unbound from the restraints of a big Corporation to survive and flourish in this new age.

68,979 downloads for Guardian news app

The Guardian has claimed that its readers are happy to pay for online content citing the success of their iPhone application. According to the newspaper their app has been downloaded 68,979 times in the first month of its release. The app costs £2.39, an expensive price considering similar apps from the Telegraph, Independent and Financial Times are all free, but it has climbed steadily up the UK App store charts and as a result is now available in other European countries, the US and Australia.

The Guardian claims that one reason the app has been so successful despite the price tag is the impressive number of downloads available on the app. As a result the app ‘proves to the industry that users are willing to pay for a news application.’

Our question would be whether this is a more of a reflection on the Guardian’s technologically minded readership, many of whom will be regular iPhone users and Guardian loyalists? Our view is that this isn't definitive proof that readers are willing to pay for online news content. More to come in this area over the next few months.

YouTube to show live sports

Cricket is not normally a sport we talk about on this blog, mainly because up until now the sport has been well governed by its television backers. Today however, the IPL (Indian Premier League) a twenty20 league noted for its extravagant salaries and very limited exposure in the UK announced they had completed a deal with YouTube to show 59 matches live, all around the world.

This is not the first time the online video channel has dabbled with big events, its streaming of a U2 concert proved very successful, and we feel that this is only just the start. The YouTube ‘brand’ is already well developed and with the much anticipated launch of Apple’s tablet coming soon it is possible live TV streamed from YouTube could become a staple for the modern media generation.

Talent spotting

This year will apparently be the toughest year for graduates to be finding employment, with 25% of jobs being taken by those who graduated in 2009. There should be a pool of people with the potential to grow into excellent employees who will be left waiting for their opportunity.

Strikes me that smaller agencies with similar expertise and specialisms should work together and offer internships to a pool of this undeveloped talent, allowing the best and most enthusiastic to spend 4 weeks in one agency, then another 4 weeks at the second agency, and the third month at a third agency - allowing them to experience a range of work in a number of businesses. Would allow us smaller agencies to see a number of people in action, without the headcount investment, and save ourselves paying any headhunters. Anyone else think this is a good idea worth developing?

One Screen to read them all

Pixel Qi's low power displays can switch between colour and ereader-like black-and-white bridging the gap between computer and ereader.

This is significant as it means that very soon we will see devices that can handle e-content - colour, video and black-and-white. Convergence is truly on its way.

Half of employers 'reject a potential worker after look at Facebook page'

Almost half of employers have rejected a potential worker after finding incriminating material on their Facebook pages, research has found.

Bosses are now using the popular social networking site as a tool to double check how likely it would be that their new worker would take a sick day for being hungover or on drugs the night before.

And job seekers were being found out for lying about their qualifications, with employers checking their Facebook pages to see if their online details matched their resume.

One in 10 were knocked back for boasting about drinking and drugs online, 13 per cent were vetoed for making racist comments and nine per cent were overlooked for placing racy photos on their Facebook page.

Big Brother employers reported the biggest online mistake that job seekers made was lying about their qualifications but having their real academic record available for all to see on line.

There were 38 per cent of job seekers knocked back for boosting up their qualifications on their resume and then getting caught on Facebook.

Examples of online posts that have caught employers' eyes include:

* Employee X "wishes his desk was near the television to watch the cricket at work

* "It's one para weekend for me".

* "Tramp related hangover"

More than four in 10 employers discarded a job seekers resume after checking their Facebook page, a survey of 450 employers for careerbuilder.co.uk found.

Career Builder president Farhan Yasin(ok) said job seekers could have all the skills needed for a job but fail to secure their dream job because they had been sloppy about what they posted online.

"More employers are now using social networking sites to uncover any digital dirt," he said.

"Job seekers are urged to be mindful of the information they post online. They are indirectly communicating with potential employers.

Mr Yasin said social networking sites like Facebook could be a bomb waiting to go off in the background checks employers do on potential recruits.

"Social networking is a great way to make connections with potential job opportunities in 2010 and to promote your brand across the internet," he said.

"Make sure you are using this resource to your advantage by conveying a professional image and underscoring your qualifications."

Mr Yasin said there were simple things job seekers could do to protect themselves from prying employers' eyes online.

"Clean up digital dirt before you begin your job search. Remove any photos content, and links that can work against your in an employers' eyes," he said.

"Consider creating your own professional group on sites like Facebook to establish relationships with business leaders, recruiters and potential referrals."

Mr Yasin said no employer likes whinging employees.

"Keep your gripes offline. Keep the content focuses on the positive, whether that relates to professional or personal information. Make sure you highlight specific accomplishments inside and outside work," he said.

"Don't forget others can see your friends, so be selective about who you accept as friends. Monitor comments made by others and consider using the block comments feature or set your profile to private so only designated friends can view it."

Thanks to the Daily Telegraph for this article.

HP Tablet Computer

LAS VEGAS (Reuters) - Microsoft Corp Chief Executive Steve Ballmer unveiled a new Hewlett-Packard Co tablet computer on Wednesday, beating Apple Inc's hotly anticipated move into the market.