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Proverb

When you are surrounded by Vultures try not to die. Ivory Coast Proverb

Twitter users hit half a billion

Box powers data management bubble

Today, Box has raised a big $125 million growth round according to AllThingsD.The company is now worth $1.2 billion.

Box has raised $284 million to date -- about $30 million more than its file sharing and storing competitor Dropbox which has a $4 billion valuation. Grown-up investors participated - General Atlantic, a Facebook investor, led Box's funding round. Social + Capital Partnership, an investment firm started by early Facebook employee Chamath Palihapitiya, also participated along with two other institutional investors.

We say that the data management/storage market is way over heated and hyper competitive. now the big boys such as google, apple and amazon have entered the market the independents cost of customer acquisition and retention has sky rocketed. To keep up they are forced to give away increasingly generous allocations of free storage. This obviously unsustainable.

Its forced us to change our plans for our data management product as we cant see how these guys will ever make money on current models

The Greatest

Well done Michael Phelps.

19 olympic medals (of which 15 are gold).

Greatest Olympian of all time.

What an inspiration. Testimony to focus and hard work.

classic

London 2012

Mobile's killing the news media

Michael Wolff can be seriously bitchy but this piece is well balanced and well worth a read.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2012/mar/27/mobile-news-media-imploding

Tortoise & Hare

While it will have taken the newspaper industry over 100 years to create the infrastructure needed to reach 1.8 billion readers it will have taken the technology industry less than 10 years to achieve comparable reach!

agree to disagree

Metro International - pioneer of free newspapers

Steve Jobs

A Hong Kong design student's tribute to Steve Jobs that generated a buzz in cyberspace following the death of the co-founder of Apple last week is not original, the teenager said on Monday.


Jonathan Mak, 19, said he was not the first to come up with the design that fits Jobs' silhouette into the bite of the Apple logo. He was speaking after comments surfaced on Twitter that a U.K.-based designer, known as Raid71 on the web, created the original design in May.

The design posted by Mak on the Internet spread like wildfire in cyberspace on Thursday, just after the passing of Jobs.

It drew hundreds of thousands of posts, and commemorative caps and T-shirts peddled on eBay featured his design. The logo was even used by Hollywood actor Ashton Kutcher as his Twitter profile picture.

Mak, a student at Hong Kong's Polytechnic University School of Design, acknowledged he was not the original creator of the design but said he did not "rip off" the U.K. designer.

Newspapers irrelevant to under 40 years olds

Take a look at the table below its a graphic illustration of the almost complete lack of interest paid to newspapers by people under the age of 40 years. Ouch

LivingSocial - $200m raise not IPO

Daily online deals startup LivingSocial might delay filing its initial public offering in favor of a new $200 million funding round, according to a Bloomberg report citing anonymous sources familiar with the matter.
The fact that both LivingSocial and rival Groupon are rethinking their IPO strategies could signal a slow down in the market demand for daily deals across the board.
T
he potential round, which would value LivingSocial at $6 billion, could include both equity and debt, according to the report. Investment for the new round would come from existing and new investors.
Previously, LivingSocial was discussing an IPO valued at more than $10 billion. However, the stock market slump that began in July is causing the company to rethink its strategy.

Daily deals company Groupon has also been rethinking its strategy toward going public because of market conditions and questions of whether the company will successfully sustain a profit in the future (Groupon has yet to turn a profit since launching in 2008). Also, both Facebook and Yelp have scaled by their own daily deals efforts, reinforcing the notion that daily deals demand is declining.
Washington D.C.-based LivingSocial has pulled in $632 million in funding to date.

The company was not available for immediate comment about the potential funding round.

Greatness - its in your grasp

US Defence Spending $$$

thank you www.theday.co.uk - explaining matters

The future of newspapers

This is a lot of fun as it imagines what a newspaper reading experience might be like in the (near) future.

New York Times R&D Lab: The kitchen table of the Future from Nieman Journalism Lab on Vimeo.

Apple on a role

Apple is on a phenomenal role right now.  Revenues rose to $28.6bn in the quarter, up from $15.7bn last year, while profits soared to $7.3bn, more than twice as much as in the same quarter in 2010.


Most exciting is the fact that two thirds of the computer company's revenues are now coming from mobile devices which did not exist four years ago. Thats just incredible. 

Where to next for the mighty Apple? into the cloud

LivingSocial next deal of the day service to IPO?

 Kate Kelly at CNBC just reported LivingSocial — a Groupon-like daily-discount company — is in the process of picking bankers for its IPO.

Here are the details, as reported by CNBC:

• An IPO could value LivingSocial at $10 billion to $15 billion.

• LivingSocial is likely to pick a banker by the end of the week.

• LivingSocial is expected to reach $1 billion in revenue this year, and they expect to be free cash flow positive by 2012.

China in Africa

Two centuries ago, Napoleon observed: "China is a sleeping giant, but when she wakes she will shake the world."

Certainly the case it Africa where an estimated 1 million Chinese now live

China is redefining the continent's economic landscape and gradually displacing the influence and relevance of western governments, corporations and development agencies.

Beijing now lends more to Africa than the World Bank does.

Trinity Mirror Exec Pay

The heat has finally been turned on Trinity Mirror CEO Sly Bailey by shareholders regarding her executive pay. As the article in the ST stated the size of her pay is completely out of wack with the (current) size of the business.

It may well be time for Ms Bailey to do the right thing and re balance her pay package to the size of business she has presided over for the last 10 years.

Shrinking business should equal shrinking executive pay.

I doubt it will in this case but it should.

Facebook hits a wall

Facebook has seen "big traffic drops" in the U.S. and Canada, even while it slowly closes in on 700 million members globally, according to Inside Facebook<http://www.insidefacebook.com/2011/06/12/facebook-sees-big-traffic-drops-in-us-and-canada-as-it-nears-700-million-users-worldwide/>, which monitors membership rates of the social network.
The behavior of the social network's North American and (some) European membership suggests its growth potential in these nations is now limited. And that's potentially a big detriment to a Facebook IPO.
And this news on the day that Facebook IPO rumored<http://www.cnbc.com/id/43378490/> to be at $100bn valuation

Ad Placement (not funny)

Nokia and Apple friends again?

Nokia And Apple Bury The Hatchet, Settle Patent Suit http://cnt.to/os5

high50 launches

I am delighted to announce the launch of high50.

Its taken rather longer than we expected (3.5 years) but good things come to those that wait dont they? And over a million more people have turned 50 in the meantime so the delay isnt all bad.

So for those of you who have made it through the last half-century in reasonable shape and are looking forward to the next. Join us.

A big thank you to web wizard Toby Kay for all his hard work and the genius that is (Beta).

Apple arrives in the cloud

For those of us hard at work on developing cloud products that make it easy to access data from any device it was great to see Mr Steve Jobs unveil iCloud.

Following hard on footsteps of Google and Amazon Apple are
the latest 'big beast' to offer consumers the ease and convenience of storing data in the cloud and the ability to access it from any device.

Its a great space and one that will radically improve the way we manage our personal content and our media.

I can think of no better space to be in right now.

Groupon Q1 revenues blast

Groupon 2011 Q1 revenues of $645m, almost as much as for the whole of 2010 at $713m (FT)

Where are the true believers?

Startup fundraising isn't about convincing skeptics but rather finding true believers.

Twitter buys Tweetdeck

Taking out another potential competitor, Twitter has reportedly acquired TweetDeck for more than $40 million in cash and stock.

Apple dominates profits with 57% profit share in Mobiles globally

With 19% smartphone (Canalys) market share, and 5% Mobiles (IDC) market share, Apple takes a disproportionate 45% of the industry profits.

Blackberry (25% of Industry Margins), HTC (15%), Samsung (12%) and Nokia (8%) complete the list.

Microsoft to buy Nokia!

Microsoft rumoured to be negotiating to buy Nokia's phone business. Watch this space

Trinity Mirror continues to struggle

Trinity Mirror has reported a 10% fall in advertising revenue in the year to 1 May and warned of the continuing challenging and fragile economic environment facing newspaper publishers.

The Times iPad

Twenty-five thousand people read The Times on iPad each day. Its stablemate The Sunday Times counts 22,000 readers, including two million iPad page views.

Microsoft confirms $8.5 billion cash to acquire Skype

US CEO pay

CEO Pay Rose 11 Percent in 2010

The median value of compensation for CEOs of 350 major companies rose 11
percent to $9.3 million, according to a study conducted for The Wall
Street Journal by management consultancy firm Hay Group.

At the top of the list is Viacom CEO Philippe Dauman, who pocketed $84.3 million in compensation - more than double his 2009 total.

Next was Oracle honcho Larry Ellison, who received compensation valued at $68.6 million, followed by CBS CEO Les Moonves, who can drown all his Charlie
Sheen-related sorrows with compensation valued at $53.9 million.

Four of the top 10 most highly compensated CEOs were heads of media companies, including those at Viacom, CBS, Walt Disney, and Time Warner. Meanwhile,News Corp. CEO Rupert Murdoch ranked 52nd on the list, receiving $16.5 million in compensation.

Read it at The Wall Street Journal:
http://e.thedailybeast.com/a/tBNx9sDB7SwhTB8a9g4DTNACvd$/dail4

News boon

What an extraordinary and momentous world news and current affairs calender .

Few can remember so many massive stories packed into so few months


We've had massive natural disasters, oil and nuclear disasters and financial disasters. We've had the reshaping of north africa and the middle east thanks to the Arab Spring. We've had the slaying of OBL after a decade of effort, we've had the wondrous spectacle of a royal weddings. Phone hacking. Etc. Etc.
The list just goes on and on.

Its provided a boon for news media  and the coming of age of social media as influential news channels.

This must be one of the very finest news runs of all time.

Smartphone sales growth

The worldwide smartphone market grew 80% in the first quarter compared to a year ago as manufacturers rolled out much-anticipated new devices and prices on older models dropped, according to new data from technology research firm IDC.

The number of smartphones shipped in the quarter nearly doubled to 99.6 million units from 55.4 million a year ago.

LivingSocial raises $400m

LivingSocial, the U.S. online coupon seller, has raised $400 million to fund expansion and keep up with larger competitor Groupon Inc,

Where do good ideas come from

HuffPO swims the pond

Arianna Huffington is to launch a UK edition of the Huffington Post this summer, as the US news and current affairs website recently acquired by AOL moves to expand internationally.

Groupon: has the bubble burst?

Groupon IPO

GroupOn to Get $25 Billion IPO?
Coupon site has been in talks with banks.

http://e.thedailybeast.com/a/tBNgl3WB7SwhTB8Zun2DTNACvHu/cht5

The end of postage stamps?

Are stamps the next thing to be made obsolete by the onward march of technology?

Denmark will introduce something called the Mobile Postage beginning on April 1. It’s as it sounds: rather than slap a plain ol’ postage stamp on a piece of mail, Danish folk will instead send a text message to the post office, which will then send back a postage code. You then write this postage code on your mail, and off you go.
The code will cost 8 DKK (just shy of $1.50 USD), and will initially only be usable on letters up to 50g (~1.76 ounces).

Sweden said that it, too, was considering introducing a text message postage stamp.

Seems like a really good idea to us

You've been warned

Personal Content - great app

Groupon looks for even more cash through IPO

Groupon, the social buying site that spurned a $6 billion offer from Google, is pushing ahead with plans for its initial public offering, a debut that could value the company at $15 billion or more.


The company, which just raised a record $950 million from big investors, discussed a public offering with bankers this week, according to two people with knowledge of the deal who were not authorized to speak publicly on the matter. Banks are pitching Groupon on dizzying valuations at which they expect to take the company public, with many at $15 billion, these people said

Social gaming - $1bn market in 2011

Social gaming is expected to be a billion-dollar business this year, according to an eMarketer report released today. Of course, this staggering number isn’t surprising considering the massive growth of both Zynga and Facebook as a platform for social games.


eMarketer says that nearly 62 million US internet users, or 27% of the online audience, will play at least one game on a social network monthly this year, up from 53 million in 2010.

In the U.S., consumers will spend $653 million on virtual goods in social games in 2011, compared to $510 million spent in 2010.

These revenues from virtual goods will continue to make up the majority of social gaming revenues in the past but other areas in the business are anticipated to grow. Ad spending is expected to grow to $192 million in 2011 to advertise on social games, which is a 60% increase over 2010. And Lead-gen offers will increase to $248 million in 2011 from $225 in 2010.

Ad revenue is actually expected to surpass lead-generation offers as a source of developer revenues in 2012, says eMarketer.

Facebook valuation doubles to $50 billion

Facebook has raised another $500 million from Goldman Sachs and Russian investor Digital Sky Technologies, at a valuation for Facebook of $50 billion, the New York Times reports. That makes Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg worth more than twice the $6.9 billion Forbes said he was worth in September 2010 –when Facebook was valued at $23 billion.

It probably won’t change Zuckerberg’s low-key lifestyle, but the jump in net worth will, as the New York Times noted, put  Zuckerberg closer to the ranks of Google founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page, both worth $15 billion as of Forbes’ Sept. 2010 ranking of the 400 Richest Americans.

The latest fundraising will also boost the billionaire fortunes of two other Facebook co-founders, Dustin Moskovitz (worth $1.8 billion on the 2010 Forbes 400) and Eduardo Saverin (worth $1.15 billion on the 2010 Forbes 400). Moskovitz left Facebook in 2008 to start another company, Asana; Saverin helped Zuckerberg found Facebook but stayed on to graduate from Harvard while Zuckerberg and Moskovitz dropped out.

Welcome to 2011

Happy New Year

2011 is going to be spectacular.

Year when tablets sales explode making them really interesting for publishers and advertisers. When Facebook and social media become very powerful advertising channels. When mobile finally gets locational. Year when everybody wakes up to the potential of Africa. When cloud computing becomes real and begins to impact on consumers lives. Year when newspapers struggle with digital and digital commercial models continue with no sign of a solution. When digital couponing takes off.

It's going to be a cracker and as always we will be ringside.

Groupon file for massive fundraise

Having turned down a huge bid from Google it seems that Groupon are now firing up with a massive fund raise.

"Groupon filed a request with Delaware authorities to raise as much as $950 million by offering preferred shares, The Wall Street Journal reported."

We all thought Groupon were nuts to turn down Google and that they should have taken the money.

Having so publicly declared and demonstrated their independence they now need big funds to defend their territories and to grow. It's not going to be easy. Competition is growing from a raft of players that include newspapers who scent an opportunity for themselves in the Groupong model. And then they is Google who having been rebuffed are unlikely to sit idly by and let Groupon succeed. And lastly there is the growing negative buzz that surrounds Groupon. Merchants and customers who have had a poor and unprofitable experience are increasing vocal.

Sure all makes for an interesting story in 2011.

Online ad spend greater than newspaper in 2010

Digital advertising in the U.S. will exceed ads in newspapers for the first time in 2010, as marketers follow consumers online and digital messages are viewed as more reliable than print.

Online advertising spending will finish the year with a 13.9 percent increase to $25.8 billion, compared with an 8.2 percent decline to $22.8 billion for print newspaper ads, New York-based researcher eMarketer said today on its website.

"It’s something we’ve seen coming for a long time, but this is a tipping point," Geoff Ramsey, chief executive officer at eMarketer, said in the statement. "The bad economy has actually accelerated the shift to digital advertising."

Online ads are typically seen as more reliable, he said, because their effectiveness can be measured, whereas print ads “are often difficult to tie to a measurable financial result.”

Newspapers will end 2010 with a 7.8 percent gain in online ad spending, to $3 billion, leaving them with an overall drop of 6.6 percent, to $25.7 billion, eMarketer said.

Total ad spending in the U.S. is expected to increase 3 percent to $168.5 billion in 2010, the research company said. Expenditure on newspaper print ads will continue to decline next year by 6 percent to $21.4 billion, and total online spending will rise 10.5 percent in to $28.5 billion, eMarketer estimated.

Bomber Command - oldie but goodie

I'm sure you've all read this many times before.....I hadn't ever read it which is why I post it here

Bomber Command's Operational Research Section (BC-ORS), analysed a report of a survey carried out by RAF Bomber Command. For the survey, Bomber Command inspected all bombers returning from bombing raids over Germany over a particular period. All damage inflicted by German air defences was noted and the recommendation was given that armour be added in the most heavily damaged areas. Their suggestion to remove some of the crew so that an aircraft loss would result in fewer personnel loss was rejected by RAF command. [Patrick] Blackett's team instead made the surprising and counter-intuitive recommendation that the armour be placed in the areas which were completely untouched by damage in the bombers which returned. They reasoned that the survey was biased, since it only included aircraft that returned to Britain. The untouched areas of returning aircraft were probably vital areas, which, if hit, would result in the loss of the aircraft.

i - struggles at the newsstand

Sales of the Independent's cut-price spinoff i are thought to have dropped to close to an average daily sale of 70,000 since launch, with no official circulation figures expected to be revealed until next year.


The 20p weekday daily launched on 26 October with a flurry of media coverage helping to drive paid-for sales of about 180,000, according to several sources.


In the third week after launch, the week commencing 8 November, average daily sales ranged from about 75,000 to 85,000; by the end of last week average daily sales appeared to be hovering close to 70,000 to 73,000, according to industry sources.

Google in talks to buy Groupon?

According to Bloomberg Groupon has held secret acquisition talks with Google. Sources say the start-up is valued at $3bn!

Apple & News Corp working on iPad newspaper

Industry sources are reporting that Apple and News Corp have been working on a new digital newspaper that would be delivered exclusively on the Apple iPad.

This new newspaper is likely to be named Daily and it would not have a print or a web based edition.

They are likely to price it cheap at around 99 cents per issue.

Daily could be launched as early as later this month.

Sources say that Rupert Murdoch is very excited about this project as he believes that people spend more time with their portable devices on their beds and couch these days rather than on a regular computer for checking out news.

The rise and rise of e-books

Another signs that e-books have arrived: The New York Times announced Wednesday that it will publish e-book bestseller lists in fiction and nonfiction starting next year. The Times has been publishing bestseller lists since 1935, and though Publishers Weekly, the Los Angeles Times, and USA Today all keep lists as well, the Times’ is considered the industry standard. Janet Elder, the editor of news surveys and election analysis for the paper, says they have spent two years designing a system that tracks e-book sales. E-book sales rose nearly 190 percent in the first nine months of 2010 compared to the same period last year, according to the Association of American Publishers, driven by the growing popularity of the Amazon Kindle and the release of the Apple iPad.

This is a direct lift from our friend Tony Fish. Tony is one of the globes leading thinkers on digital priavcy, the author of several well received books including My Digital Footprint and he somehow finds time to runs the successful networking programme mashup.

New Social Rules for Living in a Digital Age

If we sit back and reflect on current digital services, such as social media, we could conclude they are a game e.g If Twitter is about getting the best quip of the day or providing some useful info,  Linkedin is about proving "my network is bigger than yours", and Facebook is about sharing that "I have a more interesting life than you"; then there must be some new rules for these new games, but what are they? Before we examine some suggested new rules, it is worth confirming and stating that all of the old/existing rules of social engagement are still valid, relevant and have not been washed away by this new digital age. A few examples of classic handed down rules that are timeless would include:-

1.       Don't gossip, make things up, slander, steal, pinch or lie

2.       Have evidence and be professional, factual, accurate, honest, and transparent

3.       Engage and treat others how you want to be treated yourself

4.       Opinions are personal, be gracious, open, respectful and accepting of differences

Whilst all the old rules of social engagement exist, regulation does need some "modernising" as democracy, understanding and technology have advanced significantly since they were written.  Examples of regulation that would appreciate some new impetus would include: Privacy, Identity, Liberty, Harm, Consequences, Ownership, Access and Rights.

Realities for living and surviving in a digital age

Here are my rather eclectic suggestions of New Rules that I have heard, picked up or created.  I am hoping you will add and refine this list.  You can add your comments to this list here - My Digital Footprint Blog

mashup* are also organising an evening debate on "new social rules" on November 24th - you can register here http://www.mashupevent.com/event/new-social-rules   

1.     Change your password to Facebook, Twitter and bank accounts etc before you change your boy/girl friend/ partner

2.     Don't sack/release/ make redundant the person, and then be held hostage, by the person who has the login/password for your corporate fan page, group, twitter account until many people have control/access.

3.     Have several persona's, this is not a sign of madness and you don't need to justify then to anyone.

4.     Hide your friends identities by using personal nick-names on your mobile, just in case a friend borrows it to text that person with some inappropriate message that may haunt you forever.

5.     No adult supervision will not lead to anarchy. The youth want to be somewhere (in a digital world) where they are in control

6.     Provide someone (you trust) with the knowledge how to access your accounts/ data after you die and what you want done with your data/ digital footprint. Be aware - it will go against every term and condition you have signed if you do this.

7.     Your password is the weakest point in your armour,

8.     Reputation is all you have and your name is a good identity - so don't abuse or loose either

9.     Make sure you realise that your digital footprint is worth more than your salary

10.    Everything you do can be recorded (stored) as sensors will be in all digital devices soon - ask yourself why and what use will the data be and to whom!

11.    Create a lot of rubbish data and cause confusion if you want to hide in plain sight. It is easy to find and hard to hide in a digital world if everyone is honest

12.    Determine what the terms "family" and "friends" mean to you before you accept others into your network(s)

13.    Un-friending is acceptable - being un-friended is a reality

14.    Learn the social (digital and physical) rules that apply to your group today but be aware they will be different tomorrow

15.    Privacy - It's all in the settings

16.    Digital has one speed - fast, there are no breaks but plenty of fuel

17.    Internet writing is in Ink, once out there - it is out there, there is no rubber (yet)

18.    Loyalty (to a service) is dead - you are free to your own boundaries

19.    Open means you don't want to hide and transparent means "it can be found" - but most people will not bother

20.    Branding is now personal and it is the new black

21.    Trust is the new king’s advisor – content still wears the trousers

22.    Free is not free - Engagement, Relationship and Conversation have a price

23.    FUD (Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt) are easier to sell

24.    Money in a digital world has less 'personal' value than real money and is closer to swopping chickens for potato's. Unlike cash, others are more prepared to cheat, lie, swindle and steal your digital money as it appears "virtual" and less actual. 

25.    Don't set up any direct debits to anything

26.    Don't let individuals buy web domains or set up accounts just to avoid the long corporate procedures and PO cycles.

27.     Interaction with the “screens of life” is the ultimate digital game being played. It is to get "content" from the dark bowels of a data warehouse onto your brightly lit screen

28.    Control is not in your hands

29.    Levels of damage and harm from digital engagement is currently lower that you may think

Back online

Aplogies for the silence in whats been the longest lapsed time since we started this blog 3 years ago. Back now and normal service is resumed

Blackberry tablet - the PlayBook

Hot on the heels of Samsung and others Blackberry officially entered the tablet market last night finally unveiling its own iPad killer - the PlayBook

Aimed squarly at professionals and enterprise users the 7 inch screened PlayBook looks and sounds impressive. 

Heres a picture.

For those of you that like to know whats under the bonnet heres a breakdown: 

The CPU is a dual-core 1GHz unit based on an ARM Cortex A9 architecture, and its screen is a 7-incher like many of the other upcoming iPad challengers. There's full multitouch and "gesture" support, 1GB of RAM and twin HD cameras--one facing forward for Web chat and videoconferencing reasons, and one facing back. The front-facing cam is three megapixels, and the rear is a five-megapixel one, and though RIM's press release seems to hint that both can do "HD" video recording. There's Wi-Fi N compatibility, Bluetooth 2.1, a micro USB slot (for standardized cell phone charger compatibility and syncing) and "charging contacts," which we assume are ready for a customized docking system. It also weighs "less than a pound" and has HDMI out for full 1080p video support.

We're excited by Blackberry's announcement - more competition the better we say as it will lower device costs and boosts uptake. The more tablets in the market means improved services,interactivity and greatly customer engagement. 

Also as an avid Blackberry user (it just works!) I'm a natural to get one of these as I just know it won't let me down and I'm prepared to compromise on the entertainment capabilities to safegaurd my professional needs.

US retail flees newspapers

Every now and then we publish a link of an article that we think is important and a 'must read'. This one comes from Refections of a Newsosaur, a blog written by Alan D Mutter. Alan'sblog is often featured here as it's a very good take on the US newspaper market.

The poll revealed below isn't great news for regional/local newspaper publishers as it shows an aggressive swift away from newspapers by local business. Perhaps not new news in trend terms but the level and extent is ominous. This news comes hard on the heals revenues being sucked out of local ad budgets by social shopping sites like Groupon.

http://newsosaur.blogspot.com/

What about the social shopping merchants?

Image by dominiccampbell via FlickrTodays we consider the other side of the Groupon social shopping business model namely the merchants themselves.

Its clear from all the hype around Groupon that social shopping is a cash cow --- for Groupon but how is for the merchants?

The challenge with the model as far as we see it isn’t making money for Groupon, but making money for its customers, the recession-pinched merchants giving away their products and services at a loss. The web is full of stories of merchants who have had negative experiences and have sufferred the consequences of suddently having too many customers (looking for a bargain).


Lets be honest for those of us that understand regional and local advertising we know that building sustainable partnerships with low-margin small businesses is hard; it probably involves some level of shared risk, with pricing based on long-term profits rather than short-term revenues. Groupon and the other social shopping 'me-toos' can do this if they want but currently the 50% revenue share is probably too expensive for the merchant in the long term.


We worry that the merchant is vulnerable in the current model  despite the cap 'control' element and the payment on success model. They still have to finance the deep discount.  And as we know discounting doesnt bring loyalty it brings thrill seekers on a once only basis. Might be good for getting customers to the door and short term cash flow but not for longer term profits.

Its here in part that we see an opportunity for local media companies. They understand small businesses having traded with them for many decades. They understand better than anyone the dynamics and realities of low-margin business and they well placed to fashion an equitable commercial agreement on a more sustainable basis.

One suggestion could be to develop activity that combines traditional classified ad formats with deal of the day activity. This sounds sensible to us as it covers revenue generation and the need to develop return customers and customer relationships.



Footnote:  we had heard that Groupon was curremtly only able to service 1 out 8 requests from merchants wanting to use the deal of the day service. There is obviously lots of demand out there and therefore a big opportunity for local media owners to do what they know how to do - namely deliver a tip top service business and readers alike for the long term

National Brands success with social shopping - Hazchem National Newspapers

Hot on the heels of The Gap's staggering success with social shopping juggernaut Groupon in the US (400,000 groupons were sold and $11m of revenue was generated) its the turn of Virgin America to try out the deal-of-the day platform and generate huge success of their own.
Partnering with Loopt (the location-based social mapping service that allows individuals to use their location to discover the world around them) Virgin America offerred people two-for-one tickets to Cancun or Los Cabos from California. The offer proved a smash with consumers and Virgin America recorded its fifth highest revenue day ever.
This is significant stuff. It illustrates that the deal-of-the -day mechanic which uptil now has been the exclusive domain of regional and local brands can work for national brands on a countrywide basis!
We've blogged here on the threat from the rise of social shopping to local and regional newspaper groups advertising revenues but maybe national newspapers should be worried too? How long will it be before Groupon or livingsocial start offerring national deals in the UK and why wouldnt they it looks like great money!!

Groupon - friend or foe? Regional newspapers need to decide - fast

We are watching the rise of social shopping with great interest.

Social shopping represents a real challenge to newspaper companies. Social shopping companies like Groupon are growing fast here now and are aggressively scooping up local advertising revenues that traditionally have been the domain of regional media. This is a clearly problem. These are revenues and relationships that once gone are not coming back and all at a time when regional media owners cant afford further declines in their revenues.

So what to do?

Well the first thing is regionals have to act. They cannot afford to sit back and allow yet another clever non-traditional company to swoop into the market and plunder these revenues. This cant be allowed to go the way of  recruitment, automobiles, property and personals revenues. They have to act and swiftly.

We see 3 'action' options:

1. Partner Groupon (or other major player) and let them commercialize your audience with you at no cost to yourself

2. Find a white label social shopping partner and set up a branded service at limited cost and low risk to yourself

3. Develop your own a 'deal of day' platform and launch the service for your self and pocket the incremental revenue without having to share it with a partner.

There are as always advantages and disadvantages to each of these and the best fit route is dependent on individual market circumstances. The good news is that which ever way regionals choose the result will be positive. Market take up has proved that merchants like the social shopping model (why wouldn't they there is no money to pay until there is revenue through the door) and millions of consumers are loving the deep discounts and the social "all join in' aspect aspect of the service.

The other significant advantage about social shopping for regionals to consider is that the service is good at building brand relevance/role and reader engagement - both in shortish supply these days.

Online TV - the reality

With all the hype surrounding online TV I thought it would be worth putting some stats around the hyperbole.

According to Nielsen people watch 3 hours of online video per month compared with 158 hours of old-style TV.

There you go.....

Groupon - its spreading fast

Is anyone else out there tracking the rise of Groupon? It seems to be growing very fast in the UK. I judge this on my own personal experience. I signed up two or three months ago and just lately the service has gone from one rather poor and mostly irrelevant 'deal of the day' to at least 6 really good deals a day. I mean good enough to take advantage of.

So what is Groupon? It's official tag is that its the 'leading social commerce site' or put another way its the 'leading social shopping site' or even 'collective buying'.

Ok but what does that all mean? Well actually its a pretty simple concept. You sign up for the service. The service emails you a deal of the day (or many actually). If you like the deal and want it you pay upfront. The deal only takes effect if the specified number of customers buy-in (thats the social bit). The deals expire after a day.

So why so popular?

Well for merchants its a results driven no cost ad meduim (they dont charge up front, it shares the proceeds)and for punters its another targetted deep discount channel.

We are very interested in what the effect of this fast growing meduim will be on business. There are clearly opportunities for media owners to joint forces with Groupon to leverage the hyper local ad market (or to offer their own perhaps?)

More on the opportunities and challenges posed by Groupon soon, but in the meanwhile watch this space.

Defination of a tech start-up

Reid Hoffman founder of Linkedin coined the definitive description of a technology start up. It is, he says, like 'throwing yourself off a cliff and trying to assemble a plane on the way down'

pretty appropriate defination we say

and if you are involved in the tech patent business we could add ".......whilst monkeys try and steel all your tools"

e-book Milestone

Amazon has announced that sales of digital books for its e-reader, the kindle has outstripped US sales of hardbacks on its website for the first time.

Amazon has sold 143 digital books for every 100 hardbacks sold over last 3 months.

Does this spell the end of the musty old book shop? Well it appears not. The growth of ebooks is not damaging sales of physical books. According to the Association of American Publishers, hardback sales are still growing in the US, up 22% this year.

The US market is 2 to 3 years ahead of UK where digital books are still small. The kindle has only been available here since October and it still has to be shipped from US. The books catalogue is available only through the US site and the books are priced in dollars. That said the US market dynamics must be a sign of things to come here.

iPhone 4 flies of the shelves

Shoppers in the United States, UK, France and Germany bought 1.7m iPhone 4s in the three days after they went on sales on June 24th.

By comparison the iPhone 3GS sold 1m in it's first weekend of sales in 2009.

Battle for online content hots up

Couple of interesting developments in the battle for online content:

Rupert Murdoch has acquired Skiff from Hearst and a stake in Journalism Online. These two deals are significant because Skiff is an online store for content and an e-reader and Journalism Online is a platform that alllows content producers to charge for content. This is clearly Mr Murdoch buying up the pieces or building blocks required to let people buy and enjoy content online from a wide range of producers over a wide range of access devices. Sound strategy

Google looks likely to launch its own content payment platform newspass. This was rumoured last year but now it appears that its happening and will be live by end of the years according to PaidContent.org.

As the battle hots up the race is on to get the access platform and the payment technology out there and adopted by consumers. Who would you back to win that race?

Home Printing - exciting new frontier

Taken by the news that HP are rolling out next generation of printers.

Central feature is printers with email addresses. This is brilliant. First no more cables and secondly ease of printing from where ever you are and whatever device - simply email whatever you want printed and its waiting for you when you get home. Brilliant

Perfect for our increasingly mobile lifestyles.

What's also significant about this generation of HP printers is the partners they've lined up for their version of the App store. With lots and lots of partners on board printing just got much more interesting.

Now this is something I've long toted. Home printing is going to become really, really important.

We started with word processing docs, moved swiftly to pics and now I believe we will print everything from colouring books for our kids to our favourite daily newspaper.

I forecast that home printing will become an important component in the transformation of the publishing sector in same way smart phones and iPads are.

Web-only TV

We've long taken a keen interest in web-only TV and its been a surprisingly quiet market. But now it seems to have burst into life with the imminent launch of 2 high profile web-only launches in UK.

First off comedy star David Baddiel is debuting in FA Dave, a web-only series on (yes you've guessed it) UKTV's Dave channel.

Fashionistas Trinny and Susannah are back on screen with a web-only series entitled Trinny and Susannah - What They Did Next.

Their 16 episode mockumentry goes out exclusively on ivillage.co.uk and is then available across the web via a group of super distributors.

You can view the trailer of the show right now on their website.

The T&S model might give us a clue about how future commercial models might work. Producers TM5 have sensibly underpinned the show with sponsor money from ivillage and Westfield and are augmenting with ad sales.

Let's see how these two perform but I suggest that if these shows go well they might provide some much needed impetus for the web-only format.

Apple’s market value overtakes Microsoft

on the day that the iPad lands in the UK Apple has overtaken Microsoft to become the largest technology company by market value, crowning a stunning corporate comeback.

After more than three decades of rivalry between Steve Jobs and Bill Gates, the founder of the iPad maker saw his company take the lead on Nasdaq.

When the New York markets closed on Wednesday, Apple was worth $222bn – short only of ExxonMobil. Microsoft was valued at $219bn.

The moment says much about how technology and business strategies are changing. But it is above all a triumph for Mr Jobs who has consistently defied conventional wisdom and taken big risks in new industries with entrenched powers, overthrowing the establishment in the music and mobile phone businesses and staking out new ground.

This clearly says alot about Apple but what does it say about Microsoft? After 3 decades on top and once so powerful it was viewed as anti-competitive and many thought it should be broken up its stumbling.

Beaten in mobile, beaten in games consoles and with software moving to a pay-as-you-use service in the cloud its truly a gloomy moment for them.

Vanity Fair comes to iPad

Conde Nast continues its promised roll-out of print titles for the iPad. Vanity Fair was released late last week for both the iPhone and iPad at $4.99 an issue.

The mobile iterations follow closely the model used in GQ. The full contents of the magazine can be thumbed in facsimile format when the iPad is in landscape mode.

Apparently recognizing recent complaints by iPad users that the single issue pricing of these apps is multiples higher than a subscription rate, Vanity Fair is giving a price break to customers. Once one buys the first iPad edition for $4.99, subsequent months will cost only $3.99. This is still extremely expensive if you consider their current 20 week (2 year) print copy subscription offer is $20.

Having given their content away online for years for free are publishers in danger of now over charging for it!

Maybe? Maybe not?

I suggest that they are pricing high to capture those who will pay a premuim for digital access whilst using high price to illustrate the value of their print subscription offers.

Remember that however well the iPad sells its penetration will never give enough coverage to sustain a digital only model so publishers have to grapple with subscription versus digital price comparision fro years to come.

I dont mind premium prices for the digital format and low prices for the print subscription model particularily for magazines not least because magazine print subscription prices have been historically extremely low and now is certainly not the time to raise subs prices

Happy Birthday YouTube

YouTube turned 5 years old yesterday.

Its proud parent, Google announced that its video-sharing site now has more than 2 billion views -- a day. Amazing

What's more, YouTube, is the third most visited Web site in the world according to Alexa and offers local versions in 23 countries across 24 different languages (70% of its traffic is from outside the United States), receives 24 hours of uploaded video every minute, and garners 45 million home page impressions every day.

Whilst it yet to turn a profit its future looks very bright indeed.

Happy Birthday

FreeIndyStandard?

Interesting to see that while the rest of the media industry stresses about digital strategy, convergence and up and coming technology driven consumer trends, the Lebedev's are focusing very much on the nuts and bolts of the "old" media world.

We've been suggesting for a while that the Independent and Standard would end up sharing editorial resource, though in our view, it may go further than the reports this morning that the process may be starting. Currently this looks likely to extend to a shared foreign reporting presence at the World Cup, cutting the cost of content generation for both loss making titles.

Well, it makes sense, and would be a good start in combining the newsroom. Rolling forwards, would Standard readers mind if their content was written with an Independent hat on? Probably not, but vice versa?

Reports also that the Indy will be going free within the M25 - presumably piggybacking the existing Standard distribution network. Lebedev is saying that the Standard should be profitable in 2011 as the new ad reveneues gained since the Standard went free are starting to beat previous combined ad+circ rev. If so, well done, a brave move that has paid back, and one that I doubted would work out. But, and it's a big but, the Independent spent the best part of 20 years "breaking even next year" without ever quite making it.

So long iPlayer

We've just taken delivery of our first Apple iPad and it is as lovely in the flesh as we've been told.

I dont intend here to add to the rave reviews but rather point out something that startled me.

As you've read elsewhere Apple and Adobe don't like each other and as a result there is no Flash on the iPad (nor the iphone). You know what this means - no BBC iplayer! and what that means is the millions and millions of users who now use hugely popular iPlayer weekly will not ne able to so on their shiny new iPad.

In many ways this is a shame. The iPad is a device that might as well have been made for the iPlayer. It's absolutely perfect for it.

So whats the BBC to do? Two choices:

They could create a non flash version of iPlayer for the soon to be millions of iPad customers or as is more likely stick with Adobe and lose the custom of the iPad crowd.

So long iPlayer my loyalty is with the iPad.