Welcome to Market Revolution's blog



Thank you for visiting Market Revolution's blog.

We live and work in exciting times - revolutionary times. Technology continues to recast the media industry.

The extraordinary advance of affordable personal digital technology and the stellar rise of social networks are both distrupting and transforming the media market making this a unique moment to be involved in the convergence sectors we focus on.

This is also our place to ruminate and comment on the world as we see it, we hope you enjoy and please join in.





Saturday, 25 August 2007

Market Evolution launch new venture

Check out our newest venture FOR FANS. We have started a service that allows football fans to order their clubs' matchday programmes and have them delivered to their homes. Our thinking is that there are plenty of fans who cant get to the match who would enjoy the matchday programme. Our thanks to Telegraph Media Group who are our marketing partner in the venture.

click on www.forfans.co.uk and let us know what you think

Wednesday, 22 August 2007

Credit Market Turmoil

I cant help thinking that the finacial instability of the credit markets is more serious than we are being told. When you read that Bank of England has had to step in to lend a big financial institution money from its emergency lending fund you begin - justifiably - to worry.

The frustrating thing for me about this current crisis is that a) its all at the door of the financial institutions and their over exuberance and b) ultimately I'm sure the average man in the street will suffer not the finance guys!

Thats wrong!

Wednesday, 15 August 2007

Stock market turmoil

Interesting though disturbing times in the stock markets around the world. Today the FTSE is down another 80 points as I write, following the global cycle of decline seen in the US and Asia in the last few trading days.

I've vaguely followed the hedge fund industry's growth and development over the last few years, but not really given it my full concentration, as it never seemed that relevant to me. Even less attention on the US sub-prime mortgage market, which to be honest I'd never heard about before it all went belly-up.

Hedge funds, or large betting accounts as you and I know them, seem to have been let down by their quant data modelling, which failed to deal with the major issue of the sub-prime crisis and resultant black holes in the finances of certain major institutions.

A lesson for us all I think, data is data, it's not the total solution, it needs a constant safety net of human interpretation, whether its a seriously complex piece of financial derivatives modelling, or a piece of quantitative market research.

Wednesday, 8 August 2007

The flip side of social networking

We like to have a broad view on the digital world we operate in, and our good friend, Employment Law guru Mr James Lynas, offers a different viewpoint on Facebook and how consumers are interacting with it, and how employers are using, abusing or simply banning access. If the trend of banning access from the workplace accelerates, how will this impact on our consumers digital lifestyles, and on the digital businesses operating social networking sites now, and over the next few months?



This article appeared in Personnel Today http://www.personneltoday.com/Articles/2007/08/06/41764/social-networking-sites-friend-or-foe.html



Social networking site Facebook is the latest darling of the internet with 3.2 million users in the UK.

The website enables users to display their real name and a photograph to everyone else on Facebook. While it is possible to limit a profile just to the users' friends, sadly not all users are aware that if they don't change their privacy settings all members of Facebook can see their profile. Indeed I have been able to look at the profiles of half of the HR professionals in London - and what marvellous (and often drunken!) holidays you all have.

Distraction

Employers fear Facebook as a "social notworking" distraction. Like other sites, Facebook is certainly addictive and can consume large amounts of bandwidth and employers are certainly within their rights to ban access to the site. But a total ban on using Facebook will make your organisation look like it's run by clueless monsters which is perhaps not the best staff retention strategy. The best option for most organisations is to restrict access to lunchtimes and the hours before and after work.

Some ask what the use of Facebook is for an employer. One use coming to the fore in the media is as a means of vetting candidates as this quote from the Times, 17 July shows: "Jacqueline Thomson, from PR firm Brands2Life, said that she had turned down one applicant after learning that he had used Facebook "to criticise previous employers and discuss company information."

Personally I wouldn't employ anyone daft enough to leave their Facebook profile open to the public. An online search to check a candidate's past loyalty to employers is though a sensible use of Facebook. Less sensible is allowing uncontrolled and unmonitored searching of candidates by your managers.

Application forms and recruitment policies are honed over time by HR to prevent decision makers being influenced by irrelevant material such as a candidate's marital status, their hobbies, their favourite football team, their religion, their sexuality and their age. It's a helpful defence to a claim of discrimination to say "we couldn't have discriminated against you because you were gay because we didn't know you were gay." All this hard work by HR is at risk because of Facebook.

Each user joins at least one network based on geography (the London Network has 820,000 users), college or workplace (the BBC Network has 14,000 members (which says all we need to know about the use of the licence fee!). Indeed, your own organisation may have a network set up by staff which is not under your organisation's control. But as long as there are sensible guidelines in place a work based network can be useful in generating a sense of togetherness that large organisations sometimes lack.

Discrimination

Each user creates a profile which asks such questions as "are you interested in men or women?", "are you in a relationship?", "are you liberal or conservative?" (betraying its American roots) "what are your religious views?" "what's your date of birth?" which school or university did you go to?" "where have you worked?" "what's your job title?". This is great when you are trying to show off to your friends but is an open invitation to a prospective employer to discriminate against you. And a manager could use Facebook to search all job applicants and find out all the information necessary to discriminate against candidates and HR will be none the wiser.

Lawyers acting for failed candidates can use the questionnaire process under the discrimination legislation to ask questions asking about freelance vetting operations by managers and may even ask for IT records to check whether Facebook has been accessed by a manager at work.

So what can HR do to prevent managers circumventing the recruitment process by doing freelance research on candidates? Certainly you should revise recruitment policies to prohibit managers from making online searches against candidates using Facebook or indeed Google, MySpace or Bebo and make it clear that such off-piste activity will be considered a disciplinary offence.

If you think that an online search may be of value (and are prepared to take the risk of breaching Facebook's terms on commercial use of the site) your recruitment and internet policies should specify that online searches into candidates should only be done by HR.

HR should ignore any information relating the candidate's social behaviour - the only issues that should be the subject of vetting online are:

* Whether there are any inappropriate comments about a current or former employer which would show that the candidate is untrustworthy (though even here your policy might need exemptions for whistle blowing)
* Whether any published information relating to the candidate's employment history contradicts any statements on any job application form or CV.

If any negative information is discovered by HR from such a search you should print a copy off, place it with the candidate's file and store in accordance with normal good practice and record the reason for terminating the recruitment process for that candidate.

James Lynas,
Partner,
Winckworth Sherwood

Tuesday, 7 August 2007

online publications brand trust?

More than three-quarters of newspaper and magazine readers regard web publications as just as trustworthy and reliable as their print counterparts, according to research.

this is so interesting - when we last polled readers on print versus online brand trust the results were the reverse of these latest numbers.

its critical that print maintain and builds on its trust and quality values as they are hugely important in battle to strengthen audience relationship.

we will repoll our respondents and publish the data. i hope to be able to tell you that results soon.

Business models continue to change

From Mediaguardian and FT.com

US online adverts to overtake newsprint ads in 2011

The rapid growth of online advertising is expected to see the sector overtake US newspaper advertising in terms of size by 2011. That's the finding of a widely-watched annual report by Veronis Suhler Stevenson. It forecasts that online advertising will grow by more than 21% a year to reach $62bn (£30.37bn) in 2011, making it bigger than newspaper advertising, which is expected to total $60bn (£29.57bn) that year. (Via FT.com)

Wednesday, 1 August 2007

Massive growth in popularity of Facebook

Facebook recorded international growth of 270% in the past year, according to the latest comScore data, which shows the site's estimated unique user figure rising from 14.083m in June 2006 to 52.167m this June. (see mediaguardian for rest of article)

Our view from medialand in Soho is that the battle is only just starting to get serious in the war of the social networking sites. Momentum is everything in this game, you gravitate to where your friends already belong. Facebook is definitely on a roll, and our latest Periscope survey will be released to the panel in the next 24 hours to get the consumer view on this whole phenomenom. More to follow when we have the latest word from the users themselves.

Tuesday, 31 July 2007

The old apprentice

Interesting counterpoint to the emotional Bancroft family, where some are trying to hang onto the family jewels, and not take the money and run. Sir Alan Sugar sells Amstrad to BSkyB, cutting the emotional ties to a business he's grown from scratch, taking in different directions over 25 years, and pockets £30m+ for his trouble. Granted his major revenues these days come from property interests, and his share of the licence fee, but you have to wonder if there isn't a small tinge of sadness about the ending of an era. Maybe a shy tear or 2 running down his face into his carefully groomed beard. On second thoughts, probably not.

Big bottled water brands - big con trick

I saw this in The Economist and couldnt believe it:

Last week PepsiCo announced that the label on its Aquafina brand of bottled water will soon carry the words "public water source", instead of simply the innocent looking "P.W.S.".

That's right: Aquafina is to all intents and purposes tap water.

Coca-Cola is under pressure to follow suit with its Dasani brand, though so far it is refusing to do so.


Wow! so all along we have been paying premium prices for nothing more than tap water - incredible.

I don't think we as consumers are stupid more that we are being completely conned.

The other extraordinary thing is Coca - Cola is refusing to come clean and be crystal clear with consumers. Read this (also from The Economist) and weep (with fury):


"We don't believe that consumers are confused about the source of Dasani water," Diana Garza Ciarlante, a Coca-Cola spokeswoman, said. "The label clearly states that it is purified water."

Can you believe the arrogance.

LET THE CONSUMER BACK LASH BEGIN...........

Rupert Murdoch

Interesting that the Dow Jones and WSJ deal continues to rumble on, with deadlines slipping, and Rupert seeming unable to make it happen just the way he wants it.

He's offering a premium, but emotion seems to be dominating certain of the family members. If it stalls, will be interesting to see what Plan B is - the next target in line for a large bid. Will the FT be on his agenda?

Time will tell.

Monday, 30 July 2007

Pearson's profits almost treble to £40m

The newspaper division up 28% - great result.

We've written here about the FT and we have worried about its profitable future. This performance albeit somewhat early must be very validating for Pearson. Much work has been done to improve the paper (crisp, clear, confident) and of course online. Seems that readers and advertisers alike have taken to the improvements.

This strong performance comes off the back of Times editor Robert Thompson suggesting that The Times would soon be profitable!

Two things strike me.

1. The challenge of digital has acted as wake up call and forced newspaper publishers to think hard about their print product.

2. Digital is indeed an opportunity for profitable growth (rather than the end of newspapers!)

On final note if, as seems likely, the Bancroft family decide to reject Murdoch's offer for the WSJ the FT can sigh a huge sigh of relief.

Sunday, 29 July 2007

Publishing success story

Congratulations to my friend William Cash on the successful sale of his publishing business Spear to the contract publisher Luxury Publishing. William saw an untapped publishing opportunity amongst high net worth individuals. His vision was to create a magazine that focussed on the serious side of being seriously rich namely all the non-lifestyle stuff. He talked in Spear's Wealth Management Survey about tax relief, divorce, venture philantropy, art investment etc, etc. He focused on subjects far from luxury jets and boats, jewellery, mansions and all the normal luxury lifestyle trappings stuff which many magazines cover. He was also extremely smart in his distribution model. He distributed direct to home of his subscribers using a database that he build and developed.

William built a clever publishing business which deserves to be extended and expanded which is exactly what can happen now its properly funded as part of LP.

Friday, 27 July 2007

Quote of the Day

Only those who dare to fail greatly can ever achieve greatly.

- Robert F. Kennedy

Thursday, 26 July 2007

Virgin Mobile can TV Service

This doesn't come as huge surprise to us. When we last surveyed mobile users about the attractiveness of Mobile TV the results were underwhelming (see Mobile TV - all hype? post below).

2% of the base said they were watching mobile TV

Mobile TV has been totally overhyped and its yet another example of a service looking for an audience and that audience not being there.

Mail on Sunday sales dip after CD giveaway

Just as we anticipated here in an earlier Market Evolution post (see Prince of Promotions below) the Prince CD promotion was a short term ABC polishing exercise that did nothing for long term readership.

Guardian Unlimited reports:

The Mail on Sunday's circulation returned to earth with a thud last weekend - one week after the paper basked in worldwide attention thanks to its Prince CD giveaway.

On Sunday, the newspaper appeared to lose all of the extra 600,000 sales it enjoyed the previous weekend, when its unprecedented Prince promotion boosted its sales figure to a monster 2,800,846 copies.

Last weekend's circulation result appears to dash hopes that giving away the new album, Planet Earth, would introduce the Associated Newspapers title to a new group of readers and give it a lasting circulation boost.

New CEO at Metro International

It has just been announced that Per Mikael Jensen has resigned as CEO of TV2 Denmark as he has been appointed CEO of Metro International.

Alot of people will wonder why Metro didnt find an outsider to provide fresh thinking and so on post Pelle Tornberg. This appears at first to be a real missed opportunity but I believe that actually PMJ is a good call.

He is an experienced media executive who has the added advantage of knowing Metro inside and out. He knows the fault lines and can get to them far quicker than someone coming in new. Additionally, he is a good guy and Metro needs alot of employee love and nurture.

Not what we expected but actually a good decision.

Wednesday, 25 July 2007

I'm a convert

Heres another post from Craig:

Over the past few months we have been following the new apple Iphone with keen interest

Would it be different enough to stand out in an already crowded market?

Would it be too expensive for consumers?

Would the apple brand be strengthened or weakened by the extension?

From the outset, I have to admit I was somewhat cynical. Yes, it had a touchscreen, and yes it probably did some nice things with your ipod, but it was expensive, and didn't look on paper any better than my blackberry pearl

Even after the successful launch in the USA I still harboured some doubts over whether it would be as well received over here

At this point, I have to hold up my hands and confess to not being at the cutting edge of fashion, or riding the waves of cool brands. I'm more partridge than dolce & gabbana.

But I'm now a convert to the Iphone. Yesterday, at lunch, we sat next to an American businessman who had one, and showed me what it did

And its good. Looks lovely, great screen, and great usability. When you've seen it, touched it, and used it, then you want one

Its a winner, and my cynicism was misplaced

I may buy some apple shares

Tuesday, 24 July 2007

More to life than London

This is a post from Craig who is suning himself in Italy whilst we drown in UK.........

There is more to life than London....

I must confess to occasionally being too london centric in my approach to media, despite trying to remain in touch with my Midlands roots. This week abroad has reminded me of a few things I thought I should share

Its been 6 days since anyone tried to give me a free newspaper, which is a record seldom reached in london

In london, according to some research I remember raising an eyebrow to at the time, the average commuter is exposed to over 3000 marketing messages a day. Yesterday, having counted while here in tuscany, I was exposed to just two.

Having no TV or radio, not reading a paper yesterday, having only mobile internet access, and there being no outdoor ad presence here, I saw only 2 pieces of marketing. I didn't understand the first point of sale, but the second was a large sign for ice creams. It did the trick, and we went to the shop to buy ice cream, so a 50% success rate. How often does that happen?

Guess the semi serious point here is not to apply london standards and thinking automatically to other places and regions. Where the pace of life is different, you need to plan marketing from the consumer first, placing the consumer, and insight, at the start, heart and end of the process, tailoring activity at a local level where its needed

Wednesday, 18 July 2007

What next for the FT?

My colleague Craig Barnwell raises an interesting issue:

Whats Pearson to do with the FT now that the WSJ
(see post below) is in bigger and more market threatening hands?

Things just got alot harder for the FT and the pressure can only increase from here....

Strategic Options:

  • Take the advantage of the favourable market conditions created by Murdoch's successful but toppy bid and SELL at a premuim. Lots of buyers out there.
  • Strike deep strategic partnership with digital financial information provider NOW. This isnt so much the old adage of in 'stormy weather hundle together' but a sound and offensive combat strategy!
  • Stay a newspaper with online distribution and tough it out!
These are tricky times for the pink one.

Comments please

The Prince of all promotions

The Mail on Sunday sold an extra 600,000 copies thanks to its promotional giveaway of Prince's new album, its managing director said today.

Prince is happy, the Mail on Sunday is happy, and 100,000s of music lovers are happy with their free Prince CD.

Lets consider the reality of the 'success' of this promotion for a second. So an extra 600,000 people bought the MoS to get their freebie. So far so good. The big negative in all of this is that those people will not reappear to buy the paper this week (unless there is another Free Prince CD of course).

The promotion looks very good on the ABC but it does absolutely nothing for the long term sustainably of readership.

Craig Barnwell adds:

Market Evolution estimates that each additional copy sale has cost the Mail on Sunday over £5, when you take into account media cost, production cost and licence costs. Not a bad acquisition cost for a new customer, but quite high if they don't stick around, and very high if you don't get their data so you can go on to build that all important relationship.

Market Evolution's Promoscope would have told them where the buyers had come from, whether they read the Mail, and more importantly, whether they were coming back, giving a more strategic evaluation of the investment before, during and after the promotion.


At the end of the day, Associated Newspapers remain the king of the old school giveaway, with the biggest marketing budgets and free promotions. Whatever else, you can guarantee that in the circulation department of the Mail on Sunday they are partying like its 1999!