There are dark clouds on the horizon, and the storm seems to be gathering pace.
First Direct have withdrawn all mortgages from the market, which is the equivalent of one of our newspaper clients deciding that they can't afford to cover sport any further. My understanding of the dynamics driving this are:
Mortgages sold badly in US to people who can't afford them, who default, making the investment fall over. All these have already been packaged up and sold onto financial institutions, who re-package again and then re-sell. Which then starts falling over to an extent, but is a timebomb ticking away, with no-one having much idea as to future effect at an individual bank/institution level as more of the wheels (on the house) start coming off.
So, the banks stop lending each other money as they don't know who is solvent, and who is playing pass the parcel with the timebomb with the music still playing. This means cash liquidity gets badly squeezed, and the cost of borrowing the diminishing amount of money available then goes up.
Then the institutions don't have money to lend for mortgages at competitive rates, so they have to stop offering the products.
So, then it gets harder to get a mortgage, and also to re-mortgage when you come off a fixed mortgage. Which means it costs people more in monthly payments. Which hits consumer spending, which slows economic growth, and threatens recession, which costs jobs, incomes and home ownership.
And all because some grubby American salesperson, with the ethics and morals of the gutter, was sent to sell mortgages to people who could never hope to afford them, and signed up vast numbers of the economically challenged into really bad deals.
Anyone got any good news?
Wednesday, 2 April 2008
Monday, 31 March 2008
The importance of a good story order
Thanks to Roy Greenslade's blog for this. Worth 20 seconds of time in anyone's working day......
Here's a gem from the Daily Record's Pat Roller column about a story that appeared in the Cumbernauld News, though it doesn't appear on that paper's website, perhaps unsurprisingly.
"If you have recently lost a brown/black longhair cat with a red collar, Cumbernauld woman Elizabeth Nikplavlovic contacted the News to say she had found one and wanted to put the owner's mind at rest. Unfortunately, the cat had been hit by a car before Elizabeth found it lying beside the Seafar ring road and it had to be put down. Elizabeth is happy to speak to the cat's owner."
Here's a gem from the Daily Record's Pat Roller column about a story that appeared in the Cumbernauld News, though it doesn't appear on that paper's website, perhaps unsurprisingly.
"If you have recently lost a brown/black longhair cat with a red collar, Cumbernauld woman Elizabeth Nikplavlovic contacted the News to say she had found one and wanted to put the owner's mind at rest. Unfortunately, the cat had been hit by a car before Elizabeth found it lying beside the Seafar ring road and it had to be put down. Elizabeth is happy to speak to the cat's owner."
Thursday, 13 March 2008
AOL buys Bebo
AOL's been an interesting business to watch over the last 10 years. From darling of the dotcom boom, buying Time Warner as a dashing young digital upstart, then finding the position somewhat reversed since the dark days of 2002, to business without portfolio in the UK since selling its domestic broadband business to Carphone Warehouse last year.
Now it's buying Bebo. On the face of it, an odd move. Strategically, yes, buy into social networking and use it to push your content, but Bebo? Facebook's younger rival? Home to schoolkids throughout the world. Yes, it has good audience numbers, but are they a good fit for the AOL brand? Are there 427 million good reasons to buy.....
Time will tell.
Report below taken from Marketing Week:
Internet company AOL has announced it is to acquire social networking site Bebo for $850m (£427m). AOL says the deal will give it a "premier position" in social media.
Bebo has around 40 million users worldwide and is the third most popular US social media site and the sixth in the UK, according to Nielsen Online figures. The company has around 100 employees operating in offices in the UK and the US.
AOL chairman and chief executive Randy Falco says: "Bebo is the perfect complement to AOL's personal communication network and puts us in a leading position in social media." He adds: "This positions us to offer advertisers even greater reach and marketers significant insights into the desires and needs of consumers."
Bebo president Joanna Shields will continue to run the social media company after the deal is closed and will report to Ron Grant, the president and chief operating officer of AOL
Now it's buying Bebo. On the face of it, an odd move. Strategically, yes, buy into social networking and use it to push your content, but Bebo? Facebook's younger rival? Home to schoolkids throughout the world. Yes, it has good audience numbers, but are they a good fit for the AOL brand? Are there 427 million good reasons to buy.....
Time will tell.
Report below taken from Marketing Week:
Internet company AOL has announced it is to acquire social networking site Bebo for $850m (£427m). AOL says the deal will give it a "premier position" in social media.
Bebo has around 40 million users worldwide and is the third most popular US social media site and the sixth in the UK, according to Nielsen Online figures. The company has around 100 employees operating in offices in the UK and the US.
AOL chairman and chief executive Randy Falco says: "Bebo is the perfect complement to AOL's personal communication network and puts us in a leading position in social media." He adds: "This positions us to offer advertisers even greater reach and marketers significant insights into the desires and needs of consumers."
Bebo president Joanna Shields will continue to run the social media company after the deal is closed and will report to Ron Grant, the president and chief operating officer of AOL
Tuesday, 11 March 2008
Murdoch all but bows out of Yahoo race
"No, we're not going to get into a fight with Microsoft, which has a lot more money than us," Mr Murdoch said today in response to a question at the annual Bear Stearns Media Conference
Artist unveils 'newspaper house'
 Local residents brought newspapers to complete the house |
The 4 meters high house by artist Summer Erek is meant to demonstrate that newspapers should be recycled instead of being thrown away. About 10,000 papers were collected by Project Freesheet while train companies donated two tonnes of newspapers left by commuters.
Wednesday, 27 February 2008
Desperate Housewives or just desperate?
From well-regarded television industry journalist and future blogger Bill Carter:
Looking to strike a blow against the proliferation of digital video recorders, the ABC network, its affiliated broadcast stations, and Cox Communications’ cable systems are establishing an on-demand video service that would allow viewers to watch ABC shows like “Lost” and “Desperate Housewives” any time they choose.
The catch: It uses a new technology that disables the viewers’ ability to fast-forward through commercials...
Several executives involved in the project, which ABC plans to offer to other cable systems around the country, said the move was an overt attempt to staunch the use of DVRs like TiVo, which viewers often use to avoid commercials. That activity is increasingly seen as threat to broadcast television, which depends on ad revenue to pay for programs.
“This does counter the DVR,” said Anne Sweeney, the president of the Disney-ABC television group. “You don’t need TiVo if you have fast-forward-disabled video on demand..."
Ray Cole, president of Citadel Communications, which owns three local ABC stations, who is also the chairman of the board of affiliated ABC stations, was even more direct about the goal of the new service.
“As network and affiliates, we both have an interest in slowing down the explosive growth of DVRs,” Mr. Cole said. “This is about combating DVRs. As we developed this at every stage, there was an agreement that however we put this together, disabling the fast-forward function was key.”
A pictorial representation of ABC's view of you, the viewer:
Monday, 25 February 2008
AMERICAN TV ADS ARE LESS EFFECTIVE THAN TWO YEARS AGO
NEW YORK: A majority of US marketers believe that television advertising has become less effective over the past two years, spurring interest in exploring new ad and video commercial formats.
That's the conclusion of the fourth biennial TV & Technology survey conducted by the Association of National Advertisers and Forrester Research.
Among the study's main findings ...
- Sixty-two percent of marketers believe TV advertising has become less effective in the past two years, but close to half of the advertisers surveyed have already started to experiment with new ad types to work with DVRs and VOD programs.
- Eighty-seven percent of advertisers believe branded entertainment will play a stronger role in TV advertising in the coming year.
- Advertisers are eager to try new ad formats, including ads in online TV shows (65 percent), ads embedded in VOD (55 percent), interactive television ads (43 percent), and ads within the set top box menu (32 percent).
- Over 50 percent of marketers reported that when half of all TV households use DVRs, they will cut spending on TV advertising by 12 percent.
- Eighty-seven percent of respondents said they intend to spend more on Web advertising this year.
- Seventy-two percent of marketers are very interested in having individual commercial ratings rather than average commercial ratings.
"Marketers, in collaboration with the TV industry, will continue to find the most effective and innovative ways to reach their customers through the TV medium, utilizing the emerging technologies available to them."
MURDOCH CONTINUES TO RULE UK NEWSPAPER READERSHIP ROOST
LONDON: In its first-ever release of combined ABC print and online monthly circulation figures, the UK Audit Bureau of Circulations flags Associated Newspapers' middle-class clarion Daily Mail as the nation's leading newspaper brand.But - and its a big 'but' - the new Multi-Platform Monthly Report, based on the ABC's January audit, covers only five national newspaper publishers. It is hoped more will follow suit in the near future.
Among those included in the new survey, the Daily and Sunday Mail lead the field with print circulation and web unique users totalling 22.55 million, comfortably outpacing The Guardian/The Observer's 20.5m and The Sun's 16.6m.
However, it's a different story when it comes to overall reach by individual newspaper groups. In this sector, NewsCorp unit News International has put a massive stretch of clear blue water between itself and its nearest competitor Telegraph Media Group.
News International, which comprises daily title The Sun and its Sunday equivalent, News of the World, is also preeminent at the opposite end of the socio-economic scale with The Times and The Sunday Times.
Clan Murdoch's combined newspaper portfolio, both offline and on, accounts for no fewer than 36.7m. Leaving runner-up TMG (13.9m) trailing by 22.8m
Among the major names yet to commit to the multi-platform audit are Mirror Group, Independent Newspapers, Financial Times and Express Newspapers.
It is not known when (or if) they will follow suit.
Data sourced from mad.co.uk; additional content by WARC staff , 25 February 2008
Monday, 18 February 2008
Deja Vu? or 2nd time lucky?
What I had'nt realised when I blogged last Friday 'Best form of defence is offence' is that the four newspaper companies were also all part of the New Century Network in the late 1990s...
Source: New York Times.
March 1998:
[W]hen New Century Network was kicked off last April by nine giants teaming up to conquer electronic competition, even the launch party bombed...
In a ballroom at the Newspaper Association of America convention in Chicago, a thousand bottles of champagne emblazoned with ''New Century Network: The Collective Intelligence of America's Newspapers'' awaited the hordes expected to come to toast the watershed new-media joint venture. When fewer than 100 people showed up, Chief Executive Lee de Boer made an abbreviated speech before retreating...
The reception was the first public humiliation for New Century Network, but only one in a series of blunders that culminated in the company's abrupt shutdown on Mar. 10. Created in 1995 to unite newspapers against Microsoft Corp. and other competitors girding to woo electronically advertisers and readers, New Century Network came to embody everything that could go wrong when old-line newspapers converge with new media...
Started with $1 million each from Knight-Ridder, Tribune, Times Mirror, Advance Publications, Cox Enterprises, Gannett, Hearst, Washington Post, and New York Times, New Century seemed an entrepreneurial dream. The Internet had just opened to the world, creating vast new competition for readers--and for the advertisers that pump $40 billion into newspapers. But it also gave newspapers a chance to capture national accounts that favored the one-stop-shopping convenience of TV and national magazines...
[T]he [newspaper] companies had wildly diverging philosophies about how newspapers should make the electronic leap and what role the new venture should play. ''You had private companies and public companies and companies that were risk-averse and those that were risk-tolerant,'' says Harry Chandler, head of new media for Los Angeles Times. ''You had big-city papers and small chains. We shared a need. But it was frustrating trying to come together.''
While the wired world moved at warp speed, New Century spent 18 months hiring a permanent ceo and two years creating an electronic doorway to 140 newspapers... ''This [Internet] thing is really racing,'' says Al Sikes, the former Federal Communications Commissioner who is president of Hearst New Media. ''Organizations of a number of co-equals can't turn on a dime.''...
The partners ultimately invested more than $25 million in the virtual venture... The board decided... to pull the plug, coming to a remarkably quick agreement--for the first and final time...
Source: New York Times.
March 1998:
[W]hen New Century Network was kicked off last April by nine giants teaming up to conquer electronic competition, even the launch party bombed...
In a ballroom at the Newspaper Association of America convention in Chicago, a thousand bottles of champagne emblazoned with ''New Century Network: The Collective Intelligence of America's Newspapers'' awaited the hordes expected to come to toast the watershed new-media joint venture. When fewer than 100 people showed up, Chief Executive Lee de Boer made an abbreviated speech before retreating...
The reception was the first public humiliation for New Century Network, but only one in a series of blunders that culminated in the company's abrupt shutdown on Mar. 10. Created in 1995 to unite newspapers against Microsoft Corp. and other competitors girding to woo electronically advertisers and readers, New Century Network came to embody everything that could go wrong when old-line newspapers converge with new media...
Started with $1 million each from Knight-Ridder, Tribune, Times Mirror, Advance Publications, Cox Enterprises, Gannett, Hearst, Washington Post, and New York Times, New Century seemed an entrepreneurial dream. The Internet had just opened to the world, creating vast new competition for readers--and for the advertisers that pump $40 billion into newspapers. But it also gave newspapers a chance to capture national accounts that favored the one-stop-shopping convenience of TV and national magazines...
[T]he [newspaper] companies had wildly diverging philosophies about how newspapers should make the electronic leap and what role the new venture should play. ''You had private companies and public companies and companies that were risk-averse and those that were risk-tolerant,'' says Harry Chandler, head of new media for Los Angeles Times. ''You had big-city papers and small chains. We shared a need. But it was frustrating trying to come together.''
While the wired world moved at warp speed, New Century spent 18 months hiring a permanent ceo and two years creating an electronic doorway to 140 newspapers... ''This [Internet] thing is really racing,'' says Al Sikes, the former Federal Communications Commissioner who is president of Hearst New Media. ''Organizations of a number of co-equals can't turn on a dime.''...
The partners ultimately invested more than $25 million in the virtual venture... The board decided... to pull the plug, coming to a remarkably quick agreement--for the first and final time...
Friday, 15 February 2008
Best form of defence is offence.....
Four leading US newspaper companies are to announce a new joint company today to sell targeted local online advertising on their respective sites.
The Tribune Company, the Gannett Company, the Hearst Corporation and The New York Times Company will jointly own quadrantONE, with a base in Chicago that will employ 17 people.
According to the NY Times, advertising space will be sold in papers including The Los Angeles Times, The Des Moines Register, The Houston Chronicle and The Boston Globe. However titles considered to be not local will not be included in the deal, including USA Today, The New York Times and The International Herald Tribune.
The new company is said to be focused on offering advertisers scale in ad buys, with the newspaper companies themselves maintaining control. The move comes as Google, Yahoo and Microsoft all target online mainstream media news sites, and it would appear that in part the move is also a reaction to that, with Lincoln Millstein from Hearst Newspapers saying simply “We want to control our own destiny.”
The combined reach of quadrantONE’s partner sites will be 50 million unique visitors a month.
The Tribune Company, the Gannett Company, the Hearst Corporation and The New York Times Company will jointly own quadrantONE, with a base in Chicago that will employ 17 people.
According to the NY Times, advertising space will be sold in papers including The Los Angeles Times, The Des Moines Register, The Houston Chronicle and The Boston Globe. However titles considered to be not local will not be included in the deal, including USA Today, The New York Times and The International Herald Tribune.
The new company is said to be focused on offering advertisers scale in ad buys, with the newspaper companies themselves maintaining control. The move comes as Google, Yahoo and Microsoft all target online mainstream media news sites, and it would appear that in part the move is also a reaction to that, with Lincoln Millstein from Hearst Newspapers saying simply “We want to control our own destiny.”
The combined reach of quadrantONE’s partner sites will be 50 million unique visitors a month.
Thursday, 14 February 2008
Truth is stranger than fiction (funny)
FROM BRITISH NEWSPAPERS
1) Commenting on a complaint from a Mr. Arthur Purdey about a large gas bill, a spokesman for North West Gas said, "We agree it was rather high for the time of year. It's possible Mr. Purdey has been charged for the gas used up during the explosion that destroyed his house."
(The Daily Telegraph)
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2) Police reveal that a woman arrested for shoplifting had a whole salami in her underwear. When asked why, she said it was because she was missing her Italian boyfriend. (The Manchester Evening News)
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3) Irish police are being handicapped in a search for a stolen van, because they cannot issue a description. It's a Special Branch vehicle and they don't want the public to know what it looks like. (The Guardian)
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4) A young girl who was blown out to sea on a set of inflatable teeth was rescued by a man on an inflatable lobster. A coast guard spokesman commented, "This sort of thing is all too common". (The Times)
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5) At the height of the gale, the harbourmaster radioed a coastguard and asked him to estimate the wind speed. He replied he was sorry, but he didn't have a gauge. However, if it was any help, the wind had just blown his Land Rover off the cliff. (Aberdeen Evening Express)
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6) Mrs. Irene Graham of Thorpe Avenue, Boscombe, delighted the audience with her reminiscence of the German prisoner of war who was sent each week to do her garden. He was repatriated at the end of 1945, she recalled.
"He'd always seemed a nice friendly chap, but when the crocuses came up in the middle of our lawn in February 1946, they spelt out 'Heil Hitler.' "(Bournemouth Evening Echo)
1) Commenting on a complaint from a Mr. Arthur Purdey about a large gas bill, a spokesman for North West Gas said, "We agree it was rather high for the time of year. It's possible Mr. Purdey has been charged for the gas used up during the explosion that destroyed his house."
(The Daily Telegraph)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2) Police reveal that a woman arrested for shoplifting had a whole salami in her underwear. When asked why, she said it was because she was missing her Italian boyfriend. (The Manchester Evening News)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
3) Irish police are being handicapped in a search for a stolen van, because they cannot issue a description. It's a Special Branch vehicle and they don't want the public to know what it looks like. (The Guardian)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
4) A young girl who was blown out to sea on a set of inflatable teeth was rescued by a man on an inflatable lobster. A coast guard spokesman commented, "This sort of thing is all too common". (The Times)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
5) At the height of the gale, the harbourmaster radioed a coastguard and asked him to estimate the wind speed. He replied he was sorry, but he didn't have a gauge. However, if it was any help, the wind had just blown his Land Rover off the cliff. (Aberdeen Evening Express)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
6) Mrs. Irene Graham of Thorpe Avenue, Boscombe, delighted the audience with her reminiscence of the German prisoner of war who was sent each week to do her garden. He was repatriated at the end of 1945, she recalled.
"He'd always seemed a nice friendly chap, but when the crocuses came up in the middle of our lawn in February 1946, they spelt out 'Heil Hitler.' "(Bournemouth Evening Echo)
Sly old fox enters the henhouse
Seems like yesterday rumours (reported here) were in fact true! Rupert Murdoch has opened talks with Yahoo in an attempt to thwart Microsoft and grab more of the web for himself.
The proposal is a little complicated to say the least and is all about combining Yahoo and News Corp digital assets that include MySpace and Fox Interactive and lots of other consumer facing digital stuff. Murdoch would end up being a significant shareholder in the combined Co and would - surprise, surprise - have control.
We wondered last week about the practical difficulties inherent in the Microsoft/Yahoo tie-up but they are tiny in comparison to this proposal.
Media and technology - we love it
The proposal is a little complicated to say the least and is all about combining Yahoo and News Corp digital assets that include MySpace and Fox Interactive and lots of other consumer facing digital stuff. Murdoch would end up being a significant shareholder in the combined Co and would - surprise, surprise - have control.
We wondered last week about the practical difficulties inherent in the Microsoft/Yahoo tie-up but they are tiny in comparison to this proposal.
Media and technology - we love it
Wednesday, 13 February 2008
News Corp in the Yahoo race
Despite lots of denials it seems that News Corp remains a possible partner for Yahoo.
Have a read of this Techcrunch piece.
Is Murdoch serious? or is he pushing up the price
Have a read of this Techcrunch piece.
Is Murdoch serious? or is he pushing up the price
Monday, 4 February 2008
Google looks to block Yahoo bid
No great surprise that Google is going all out to ruin the Microsoft/Yahoo party. They dont seem to be the kind of guys that would sit idly by and watch the number 2 and 3 in the search market join forces.
Its rumoured that Google have even offered Yahoo its help in defending themselves from Microsoft - wow whats Jerry Yang to do?
We think its little rich however for Google to bleat on about the deal harming consumer choice and services. Yeah yeah.
Have a read of NY Times piece to see what they moves they are rumoured to be making to rain on Microsoft parade!
What ever happens it sure is exciting........................
Its rumoured that Google have even offered Yahoo its help in defending themselves from Microsoft - wow whats Jerry Yang to do?
We think its little rich however for Google to bleat on about the deal harming consumer choice and services. Yeah yeah.
Have a read of NY Times piece to see what they moves they are rumoured to be making to rain on Microsoft parade!
What ever happens it sure is exciting........................
Friday, 1 February 2008
its all getting really really interesting
Microsoft offers $44.6bn for Yahoo
Feb 01, 2008 12:13:00 GMT
Microsoft offered to buy search engine group Yahoo for $44.6bn, or $31 a share, as the software giant seeks to catch up with arch-rival Google.
We can see the strategic sense in this deal for Microsoft as they need to expand their armory to battle Google.
But Yahoo are a basket case.
we cant help thinking that by the time Microsoft have gotten them fit for purpose Google will be even further ahead and Microsoft will be $40bn+ down!
Tempting but we say dont do it!
We can see the strategic sense in this deal for Microsoft as they need to expand their armory to battle Google.
But Yahoo are a basket case.
we cant help thinking that by the time Microsoft have gotten them fit for purpose Google will be even further ahead and Microsoft will be $40bn+ down!
Tempting but we say dont do it!
Wednesday, 30 January 2008
This seems like joined up thinking
The News of the World's new glossy magazine, Fabulous, will be linked to an online shop when it launches this weekend.
Readers will be able to "click and buy" frocks and other items from more than 450 brands featured in Fabulous's celebrity fashion shoots through an interactive shopping function on the fabulousmag.co.uk site.
Friday, 18 January 2008
Internet sales boom in 2007
Check out the latest internet retail figures. They are very exciting. Its clear from these numbers that 2007 was the year that online retailing came of age. Not surprising really as we have been tracking real consumer adoption throughout the year but huge and rapid growth nevertheless.
There is no doubt that the whole online shopping deal has improved significantly over last 18 months. Retail sites are far better, payment is secure, goods arrive and on time and real value is being passed on the consumer. why bother with the overcrowed high street? Point is made by the 4.4m people who shopped online on Christmas day!
The figures:
There is no doubt that the whole online shopping deal has improved significantly over last 18 months. Retail sites are far better, payment is secure, goods arrive and on time and real value is being passed on the consumer. why bother with the overcrowed high street? Point is made by the 4.4m people who shopped online on Christmas day!
The figures:
- Internet sales in 2007 were £46.6bn, up from the £30.2bn in 2006.
- 15pc of UK consumers making their retail purchases online.
- Nearly 1 pound in every seven spent on consumer goods in 2007 was spent over the internet.
- A jump of more than 50pc since 2006.
Survey conducted by Capgemini and the IMRG, the online retailers' industry body.
Wednesday, 16 January 2008
Quote of the day
If everything seems under control, you're not going fast enough"
Mario Andretti (racing driver extraordinaire)
Mario Andretti (racing driver extraordinaire)
Tuesday, 15 January 2008
UK is a nation of social networking obsessives
Our thanks to Brand Republic for this insight. Its interesting in that it compares UK with EU neighbours.....
LONDON - UK adults spend more time on social networking sites such as Facebook and MySpace than their European neighbours, with as many as one in four adults saying they regularly log on to the sites, according to an Ofcom report.
The UK adults who visit the sites spend an average of 5.3 hours each month on them and return to them an average of 23 times a month.
The analysis is matched by the investment made by advertisers in the UK, where companies spend more money per person on internet advertising than any other country. The UK currently spends £33 per person, twice as much as France, Germany and Italy combined.
The finding is one of many that shows the UK is ahead of its European counterparts in terms of the latest digital trends.
The report compares the UK with eight European countries as well as Japan, Canada and the US. It was carried out to help determine future policies, provide information to the UK advertising and media industry, and assess where the UK market stands on a global scale.
Ofcom has also researched how internet audiences around the world are broken down by gender. Across all the countries studied the divide is 52% women to 48% men.
In the UK, the split is 50-50, except in the 18-34 age group, where far more women are surfing the net.
Ofcom has suggested this pattern is related to the increasing popularity of social networking sites.
Other findings revealed that Europeans watch less TV than the Americans and Japanese. In the UK, the average is 25.2 hours a week, or 3.5 hours a day. That is less than Italy and Spain but more than Germany and Ireland.
People in the UK also listen to more radio than in any of the other eleven countries surveyed, while the medium is least popular in Japan.
Ed Richards, Ofcom chief executive said: "The report shows that convergence, bundling and the move to digital communications is a powerful global phenomenon.
"It's important to understand international comparisons so Ofcom can develop better policies to serve the interests of consumers and citizens in the UK."
LONDON - UK adults spend more time on social networking sites such as Facebook and MySpace than their European neighbours, with as many as one in four adults saying they regularly log on to the sites, according to an Ofcom report.
The UK adults who visit the sites spend an average of 5.3 hours each month on them and return to them an average of 23 times a month.
The analysis is matched by the investment made by advertisers in the UK, where companies spend more money per person on internet advertising than any other country. The UK currently spends £33 per person, twice as much as France, Germany and Italy combined.
The finding is one of many that shows the UK is ahead of its European counterparts in terms of the latest digital trends.
The report compares the UK with eight European countries as well as Japan, Canada and the US. It was carried out to help determine future policies, provide information to the UK advertising and media industry, and assess where the UK market stands on a global scale.
Ofcom has also researched how internet audiences around the world are broken down by gender. Across all the countries studied the divide is 52% women to 48% men.
In the UK, the split is 50-50, except in the 18-34 age group, where far more women are surfing the net.
Ofcom has suggested this pattern is related to the increasing popularity of social networking sites.
Other findings revealed that Europeans watch less TV than the Americans and Japanese. In the UK, the average is 25.2 hours a week, or 3.5 hours a day. That is less than Italy and Spain but more than Germany and Ireland.
People in the UK also listen to more radio than in any of the other eleven countries surveyed, while the medium is least popular in Japan.
Ed Richards, Ofcom chief executive said: "The report shows that convergence, bundling and the move to digital communications is a powerful global phenomenon.
"It's important to understand international comparisons so Ofcom can develop better policies to serve the interests of consumers and citizens in the UK."
Thursday, 10 January 2008
Only in Germany?
BERLIN (Reuters) - The owner of a small German computer company has fired three non-smoking workers because they were threatening to disturb the peace after they requested a smoke-free environment.
The manager of the 10-person IT company in Buesum, named Thomas J., told the Hamburger Morgenpost newspaper he had fired the trio because their non-smoking was causing disruptions.
Germany introduced non-smoking rules in pubs and restaurants on January 1, but Germans working in small offices are still allowed to smoke.
"I can't be bothered with trouble-makers," Thomas was quoted saying. "We're on the phone all the time and it's just easier to work while smoking. Everyone picks on smokers these days. It's time for revenge. I'm only going to hire smokers from now on."
How Apple changed the mobile sector for ever
Lots and lots has been written about the Apple iPhone. It's been critical and commercial success. An estimated 3 million units have been shipped so far and Apple's share price is at an all time high. Wired Magazine has just published a piece (rather grandly) entitled The Untold Story: How the iPhone blew up the wireless industry. Its well worth a read.
For those of you that don't have time (it is quite long) the piece basically says that Apple with its iPhone (which took 3 years and $150 million to develop) has forever changed the mobile-phone business, wresting power from carriers and giving it to handset manufacturers, developers, and to you and I the consumer.
On behalf of mobile dependant consumers everywhere we say thank you Apple
For those of you that don't have time (it is quite long) the piece basically says that Apple with its iPhone (which took 3 years and $150 million to develop) has forever changed the mobile-phone business, wresting power from carriers and giving it to handset manufacturers, developers, and to you and I the consumer.
On behalf of mobile dependant consumers everywhere we say thank you Apple
Tuesday, 8 January 2008
Xmas comes but once a year, but how often do your customers interact with you?
This weekend saw M&S reporting their first sales decline in over 2 years, as Xmas spending was hit by "consumer confidence". The word on the high street seems to be "concern", as consumers keep more of their money in their pocket. The bricks and mortar situation is hindered by not being able to successfully translate a database full of customer names into a real time sales driver on the high streets in the run up to Xmas.
Online sales over Xmas are reported to have continued the growth seen last year. With an avalanche of e-money flying through the e-tills, it will be interesting to see how marketers and CRM experts within the online retail giants interact with their customers over the next few months.
I'm waiting with interest to see how my online favourites communicate with me.
Xmas 2006, I bought almost all my presents online. This year however I did very little shopping online. Smart CRM systems would pick that up, tag me as a "shopped last year but didn't return despite our enticing pre-Xmas emails" and treat me differently. Maybe establish why I didn't spend my money this time round. Maybe just make me an offer I can't refuse to entice me back to the site and transact again.
I fear however that I'll just be treated like everyone else, and receive the usual mass e-mail. I live in hope that someone will treat me like an individual, but I'm not holding my breath. Come on businesses, gain insight from me as a customer, translate it into a compelling offer which will motivate my return to the fold, and then watch me spend money with you again. It's almost too easy......
Online sales over Xmas are reported to have continued the growth seen last year. With an avalanche of e-money flying through the e-tills, it will be interesting to see how marketers and CRM experts within the online retail giants interact with their customers over the next few months.
I'm waiting with interest to see how my online favourites communicate with me.
Xmas 2006, I bought almost all my presents online. This year however I did very little shopping online. Smart CRM systems would pick that up, tag me as a "shopped last year but didn't return despite our enticing pre-Xmas emails" and treat me differently. Maybe establish why I didn't spend my money this time round. Maybe just make me an offer I can't refuse to entice me back to the site and transact again.
I fear however that I'll just be treated like everyone else, and receive the usual mass e-mail. I live in hope that someone will treat me like an individual, but I'm not holding my breath. Come on businesses, gain insight from me as a customer, translate it into a compelling offer which will motivate my return to the fold, and then watch me spend money with you again. It's almost too easy......
Saturday, 5 January 2008
08 - its all about mobile stupid
Welcome to 08 from all of us at Market Evolution.
Its sure to be an exciting year.
Last year we correctly predicted 07 was the year social networking took off and firmly established itself. We predict that this year will be dominated by mobile.
Heres a stat to kick us off:
The market for text messages alone last year was over $60billion globally, more than 4 times the size of the entire music industry.
As usual we will be monitoring consumers mobile behaviour and you will be the first to know whats out there and happening
Happy New Year
Its sure to be an exciting year.
Last year we correctly predicted 07 was the year social networking took off and firmly established itself. We predict that this year will be dominated by mobile.
Heres a stat to kick us off:
The market for text messages alone last year was over $60billion globally, more than 4 times the size of the entire music industry.
As usual we will be monitoring consumers mobile behaviour and you will be the first to know whats out there and happening
Happy New Year
Thursday, 20 December 2007
Last Post 07 - inspirational thoughts
Entrepreneurship is living a few years of your life like most people won't, so that you can spend the rest of your life like most people can't - Anonymous
I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work - Thomas Edison
Every worthwhile accomplishment, big or little, has its stages of drudgery and triumph; a beginning, a struggle and a victory - Mahatma Gandhi
Once you say you're going to settle for second, that's what happens to you in life - John F. Kennedy
In preparing for battle I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable - Dwight D. Eisenhower
Some people dream of great accomplishments, while others stay awake and do them – Anonymous
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover - Mark Twain
There is a tide in the affairs of men
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries.
On such a full sea are now afloat;
And we must take the current when it serves,
Or lose the ventures before us - William Shakespeare
Genius is 1% inspiration, and 99% perspiration - Thomas Edison
If you kick it around enough, it starts to look like a ball - Skip Shuda
Base your decisions on where you are going not on where you are. - James Arthur Ray
Those who say something can not be done should step aside for those doing it - Anonymous
HAPPY CHRISTMAS and NEW YEAR
I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work - Thomas Edison
Every worthwhile accomplishment, big or little, has its stages of drudgery and triumph; a beginning, a struggle and a victory - Mahatma Gandhi
Once you say you're going to settle for second, that's what happens to you in life - John F. Kennedy
In preparing for battle I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable - Dwight D. Eisenhower
Some people dream of great accomplishments, while others stay awake and do them – Anonymous
Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover - Mark Twain
There is a tide in the affairs of men
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in shallows and in miseries.
On such a full sea are now afloat;
And we must take the current when it serves,
Or lose the ventures before us - William Shakespeare
Genius is 1% inspiration, and 99% perspiration - Thomas Edison
If you kick it around enough, it starts to look like a ball - Skip Shuda
Base your decisions on where you are going not on where you are. - James Arthur Ray
Those who say something can not be done should step aside for those doing it - Anonymous
HAPPY CHRISTMAS and NEW YEAR
Friday, 30 November 2007
in stormy weather cling together
BBC Worldwide, ITV and Channel 4 have formed a commercial joint venture to launch a single online destination housing their on-demand TV content next year. Currently called ‘Kangaroo’, the new service will unite BBC iPlayer; ITV.com; and 4OD. It will house more than 10,000 hours of content with a focus on catch-up TV and archive programme.
Monday, 26 November 2007
Bad day?
So you think you are having a bad day? Have a look at this 4 minute video. It'll make you feel so very much better. Either that or fill your head with ideas!
Enjoy
Enjoy
300lb Gorilla wanting to be your pet
Good morning and welcome to a new week and another story on Google.
This one appeared in The Sunday Times a couple of week ago. Written my our friend John Arlidge its an excellent 'take' on whats up in the Googleplex.
John raises some serious issues for us all about our personal privacy.
Read it
Thursday, 22 November 2007
Homegrown traffic?
It's fascinating to see just how much traffic from outside the UK the Newspapers get online.
If you look at the figures below each of our examples generate well over 50% of traffic from abroad.
Traffic outside the UK accounted for 61% of Guardian Unlimited's traffic or 11,186,395 users during October, with the remaining 7,221,363 users in the UK.
Mail Online, recorded 9,697,917 unique users from overseas, or 72%, and 3,833,257 users within the UK.
Sun Online's six web properties have 5,006,572 unique users outside the UK, or 54% of its user base, with 4,187,434 UK users.
Times Online's recorded 63% of its traffic from overseas, equivalent to 7,880,105 unique users, with 4,561,777 users in the UK.
Telegraph.co.uk recording 6,721,354 unique users or 61% outside the UK and 4,386,671 domestic users.
What does it mean?
Well it means that UK newspapers are strong and respected brands that travel well.
It also means that domestic advertisers will worry that 50%+ audience isnt relevant - price negiotation will surely follow
If you look at the figures below each of our examples generate well over 50% of traffic from abroad.
Traffic outside the UK accounted for 61% of Guardian Unlimited's traffic or 11,186,395 users during October, with the remaining 7,221,363 users in the UK.
Mail Online, recorded 9,697,917 unique users from overseas, or 72%, and 3,833,257 users within the UK.
Sun Online's six web properties have 5,006,572 unique users outside the UK, or 54% of its user base, with 4,187,434 UK users.
Times Online's recorded 63% of its traffic from overseas, equivalent to 7,880,105 unique users, with 4,561,777 users in the UK.
Telegraph.co.uk recording 6,721,354 unique users or 61% outside the UK and 4,386,671 domestic users.
What does it mean?
Well it means that UK newspapers are strong and respected brands that travel well.
It also means that domestic advertisers will worry that 50%+ audience isnt relevant - price negiotation will surely follow
Are online ads the answer for Newspapers?
US Newspaper ad sales continue their long decline, down 7.4 percent in the third quarter.
Ok this is a well established trend but what we all really want to know is will the shift to online replace the lost print ad revenues?.
NO - and not by a long way
While online ads keep growing up 21 percent to $773 million industrywide, it is not enough to make up for the decline in print ads. Print ads in the third quarter in US were $10.1 billion. That is $1 billion less than they were in the same quarter last year. Meanwhile, online newspaper ad sales rose only by $135 million. After six straight quarters of decline, print ad sales are at 1997 levels—lower if you adjust for inflation.
Monday, 19 November 2007
Mark Thomas on Coke
Mark Thomas, broadcaster and investigative journalist, has just had his latest Dispatches investigation aired on C4. The subject this time is Coca-Cola, global multinational, with one of the most recognised brands on the planet. Always within an arms reach of desire, in almost every country on earth, Coke is the real thing, known by billions from the age of 3 to 103.
From that viewpoint, it's an easy target. Operating in so many countries, it's always going to be exposed to varying standards of corporate responsibility. Child labour, death squads operating against union members on company property, chemical contamination and water theft, tonight's rap sheet is long and serious.
At this point, I need to admit I'm a fan of Mark Thomas. Given my commercial/capitalist existence, and central/right wing clients, I'm sure the feeling would be one way, but I do admire and respect his tenacity and focus.
As you would expect Coke didn't fare well in the programme, and as it developed, I did wonder how the PR team in Atlanta would handle the fallout. In the end, they issued a statement saying that just because allegations were repeated, it didn't mean they were true, and they urged consumers to visit the company website for the real facts.
Who to believe? Like everything in life, apart from a zebra crossing and a grand piano, nothing is black and white, just varying degrees of grey. Interesting for me here is the battle between marketing and PR. One pumping the red and white message across the globe, the other ducking and diving to deal with TV shows like Dispatches. One trying to generate a desired consumer response, one trying to minimise the effect of an undesired consumer response.
Few organisations have a seamless link between PR and Marketing, but in this digital age of rapid and fluid consumer communication, it's only getting more not less important. Synergy between the 2 functions needs to become a focus, but are the disciplines getting closer or not right now? Any evidence out there?
From that viewpoint, it's an easy target. Operating in so many countries, it's always going to be exposed to varying standards of corporate responsibility. Child labour, death squads operating against union members on company property, chemical contamination and water theft, tonight's rap sheet is long and serious.
At this point, I need to admit I'm a fan of Mark Thomas. Given my commercial/capitalist existence, and central/right wing clients, I'm sure the feeling would be one way, but I do admire and respect his tenacity and focus.
As you would expect Coke didn't fare well in the programme, and as it developed, I did wonder how the PR team in Atlanta would handle the fallout. In the end, they issued a statement saying that just because allegations were repeated, it didn't mean they were true, and they urged consumers to visit the company website for the real facts.
Who to believe? Like everything in life, apart from a zebra crossing and a grand piano, nothing is black and white, just varying degrees of grey. Interesting for me here is the battle between marketing and PR. One pumping the red and white message across the globe, the other ducking and diving to deal with TV shows like Dispatches. One trying to generate a desired consumer response, one trying to minimise the effect of an undesired consumer response.
Few organisations have a seamless link between PR and Marketing, but in this digital age of rapid and fluid consumer communication, it's only getting more not less important. Synergy between the 2 functions needs to become a focus, but are the disciplines getting closer or not right now? Any evidence out there?
Friday, 16 November 2007
End of the world is nigh?
Media reports said the cult members believed the world would end sometime in May next year.
Periscope Snapshot
For November's Periscope digital lifestyle survey we asked our UK online panel about their interest in and use of the huge number of TV programme download services. The topline results are presented here and make for interesting reading. High (ish) levels of interest and usage but low levels of payment (surprise, suprise).
For a full screen version please click on the slideshare icon bottom right
For a full screen version please click on the slideshare icon bottom right
Water Cooler moment - watch this (5 mins)
This is a graphic example of social media at its absolute very very best. Please take a minute to watch this inspirational video and please be sure to think about the powerful message.
Mobile VOIP - it will save you money
Many of us who are by now well versed with landline VOIP have had our legs crossed for some time waiting for the VOIP revolution to hit mobiles. It seems that it has . FT wrote a good piece this morning in Paul Taylor's excellent Personal Technology section which lists and explains the various services that have recently sprung up. Its worth a read.
Having read the piece its heartening that services are arriving but it strikes me the mobile VOIP thing is all still alittle clunky, too many stages, too many clicks, some delay etc. That said mobile VOIP has arrived and we can begin to watch our mobile bills come tumbling down - which is no bad thing
Having read the piece its heartening that services are arriving but it strikes me the mobile VOIP thing is all still alittle clunky, too many stages, too many clicks, some delay etc. That said mobile VOIP has arrived and we can begin to watch our mobile bills come tumbling down - which is no bad thing
Tuesday, 13 November 2007
Digital collides with sport
It's not often I see an idea and am totally grabbed by the fact it is unique, visionary, and combines the old world with our new digital environment. The fact that it is a subject close to my heart only makes this more interesting.
myfootballclub.com was launched earlier in the year, with the intention of getting people to buy a share in a "yet-to-be-bought" football club for £35 per share. Get enough people signed up, and then the collective could go buy a club. Nothing that radical there, that's what supporters trusts exist to do.
The twist with this though is that there was no club at the outset, but more radically, all share owners would have a say in the running of the club - transfers, team selection and major club decisions. The digital platform would allow all share holders to vote on everything, meaning either chaos or consensus.
Today, with a warchest of £700,000 myfootballclub.com has announced it's buying Ebbsfleet United FC, currently 9th in the top division of non-league football. Managed by former Coventry City centre-back Liam Daish, Ebbsfleet are about to become part of a unique digital - sport - social community experiment. Liam will keep the shareholders updated with all information, coach the players, and then the fans will pick the team.
Success or disaster? This real life Championship Manager will be interesting to follow over the rest of the season. I'm hooked already
myfootballclub.com was launched earlier in the year, with the intention of getting people to buy a share in a "yet-to-be-bought" football club for £35 per share. Get enough people signed up, and then the collective could go buy a club. Nothing that radical there, that's what supporters trusts exist to do.
The twist with this though is that there was no club at the outset, but more radically, all share owners would have a say in the running of the club - transfers, team selection and major club decisions. The digital platform would allow all share holders to vote on everything, meaning either chaos or consensus.
Today, with a warchest of £700,000 myfootballclub.com has announced it's buying Ebbsfleet United FC, currently 9th in the top division of non-league football. Managed by former Coventry City centre-back Liam Daish, Ebbsfleet are about to become part of a unique digital - sport - social community experiment. Liam will keep the shareholders updated with all information, coach the players, and then the fans will pick the team.
Success or disaster? This real life Championship Manager will be interesting to follow over the rest of the season. I'm hooked already
Thursday, 8 November 2007
Social Networks - bigger than porn!
Just got wind of a well sourced rumour that social networks just overtook porn as the single biggest use of the internet.
Since jan 07 its gone from 7% of online use to an amazing 22% in july (most recent available figures)
Additionally just look at these numbers;
1bn subscribers
154m use daily
3bn minutes a day
8bn pages served a day
Since jan 07 its gone from 7% of online use to an amazing 22% in july (most recent available figures)
Additionally just look at these numbers;
1bn subscribers
154m use daily
3bn minutes a day
8bn pages served a day
Android
Google finally broke cover on its mobile plans earlier this week with the launch of the really nicely named Android. Rather than go it alone they choose the in vogue collaborative approach with the launch of their Open Handset Alliance.
Google and its 33 partners in the Open Handset Alliance are betting that together they can reshape the mobile phone industry by offering a free (Linux-based) mobile phone operating system and software "stack" dubbed Android.
Will it succeed?
Good question and as always in depends you ask:
On the nay side - Symbian's VP of strategy John Forsyth said Google lacked experience. Making a "mobile OS is a very specialized form of rocket science," Forsyth said. "It's not search rocket science." Forsyth later went on to say that alliances like Google's Open Handset Alliance are formed every few months--"a bit like the common cold. It keeps coming round and then we go back to business." Ouch
To be fair Symbian (smartphone operating system vendor) have a lot (maybe the most) to lose as Google and its (experienced) pals is offering not only an open but also a free operating platform to developers that on the surface at least could move the market on alot.
Microsoft (another smartphone operating system vendor) were also alittle defensive about Google's Android project: "It really sounds like they are getting a whole bunch of people together to build a phone and that's something we've been doing for five years,"
Is Google's approach new? - well no - its reminiscent of Nokia’s efforts over the last few years with its Series 60 software which is open to third party developers. Yankee Group, a US-based research firm, says: “Taken alone, there is nothing fundamentally unique or new about the Alliance. It is reminiscent of other structures such as the Open Mobile Terminal Platform (OMTP) initiative, Mobile Services Architecture (MSA), and several Linux-oriented initiatives. “
Does the collaborative approach reduces the chances of failure? - well no “The telecoms landscape is littered with failed or wobbly alliances and overlapping initiatives,” says Martin Garner, mobile practice leader at Ovum, the specialist telecoms consultancy. “Most of the players in the alliance have plenty of first hand experience in this and, being cynical for a moment, it costs a vendor very little at this stage to join the alliance and say nice things about it.”
Per Lindberg, analyst at Dresdner Kleinwort sums it up best.''The Open Handset Alliance is a dream scenario, where everyone will work together, no one will be greedy and software will be free. It is not going to happen,” “Motorola and Samsung are not really going to start sharing software. But what will happen is that Google’s search, maps, email and other applications will be pre-installed on a lot of phones.”
We agree with you Per - in our view this is a stealth tactic to get Google apps on lots and lots of phones so they can extend their ad serving services to mobile and complete the set.
So Android is not only a good name its an appropriate one as it has the very real potential to be a very real and scary monster!
Smart (but somewhat scary) boys
Google and its 33 partners in the Open Handset Alliance are betting that together they can reshape the mobile phone industry by offering a free (Linux-based) mobile phone operating system and software "stack" dubbed Android.
Will it succeed?
Good question and as always in depends you ask:
On the nay side - Symbian's VP of strategy John Forsyth said Google lacked experience. Making a "mobile OS is a very specialized form of rocket science," Forsyth said. "It's not search rocket science." Forsyth later went on to say that alliances like Google's Open Handset Alliance are formed every few months--"a bit like the common cold. It keeps coming round and then we go back to business." Ouch
To be fair Symbian (smartphone operating system vendor) have a lot (maybe the most) to lose as Google and its (experienced) pals is offering not only an open but also a free operating platform to developers that on the surface at least could move the market on alot.
Microsoft (another smartphone operating system vendor) were also alittle defensive about Google's Android project: "It really sounds like they are getting a whole bunch of people together to build a phone and that's something we've been doing for five years,"
Is Google's approach new? - well no - its reminiscent of Nokia’s efforts over the last few years with its Series 60 software which is open to third party developers. Yankee Group, a US-based research firm, says: “Taken alone, there is nothing fundamentally unique or new about the Alliance. It is reminiscent of other structures such as the Open Mobile Terminal Platform (OMTP) initiative, Mobile Services Architecture (MSA), and several Linux-oriented initiatives. “
Does the collaborative approach reduces the chances of failure? - well no “The telecoms landscape is littered with failed or wobbly alliances and overlapping initiatives,” says Martin Garner, mobile practice leader at Ovum, the specialist telecoms consultancy. “Most of the players in the alliance have plenty of first hand experience in this and, being cynical for a moment, it costs a vendor very little at this stage to join the alliance and say nice things about it.”
Per Lindberg, analyst at Dresdner Kleinwort sums it up best.''The Open Handset Alliance is a dream scenario, where everyone will work together, no one will be greedy and software will be free. It is not going to happen,” “Motorola and Samsung are not really going to start sharing software. But what will happen is that Google’s search, maps, email and other applications will be pre-installed on a lot of phones.”
We agree with you Per - in our view this is a stealth tactic to get Google apps on lots and lots of phones so they can extend their ad serving services to mobile and complete the set.
So Android is not only a good name its an appropriate one as it has the very real potential to be a very real and scary monster!
Smart (but somewhat scary) boys
Wednesday, 7 November 2007
a mixture of sadness and amusement
this is a graphic illustration of the sad society we live in (but it will make you smile)
Tuesday, 6 November 2007
Spinning Around
We raised a slightly quizzical eyebrow on hearing the news that the pint-sized Princess of Pop, Kylie, is launching her own social networking site, allowing fans to congregate together in cyberspace and interact with all things Minogue.
On reflection though, this is another sign that the digital world continues to radically change the traditional music business model. The Kylie brand now covers music, underwear, fashion, perfume, touring, CDs, DVDs and downloads - and social networking is a brave but possibly inspired digital extension.
Knowing your audience is crucial to success, and if Kylieworld takes off, not only will Kylie know her audience, but she'll have them in one place, known by name, in a relationship and individually addressable. A marketer's dream.
We'll be signing up, to see how we get treated. And whether we get to wear some sequins and feathers in the office.
On reflection though, this is another sign that the digital world continues to radically change the traditional music business model. The Kylie brand now covers music, underwear, fashion, perfume, touring, CDs, DVDs and downloads - and social networking is a brave but possibly inspired digital extension.
Knowing your audience is crucial to success, and if Kylieworld takes off, not only will Kylie know her audience, but she'll have them in one place, known by name, in a relationship and individually addressable. A marketer's dream.
We'll be signing up, to see how we get treated. And whether we get to wear some sequins and feathers in the office.
Every one has their price
In these days of decreasing brand loyalty, it's nice to see this being reflected all the way down the distribution chain. Interesting news reaches us from Copenhagen, where a bloody freesheet war is wreaking havoc on the balance sheet of numerous major publishers. www.newspaperinnovation.com brings us the big transfer story of the week.
Nyhedsavisen hires Metro hawker:
Transfers of sports stars are common but in Denmark the best known free daily hawker recently has been tranfered from Metro to competitor Nyhedsavisen.
Brazilian hawker Jura, famous for his enthusiastic behaviour in Copenhagen and distributing to bikers and pedestrians in the central square moved from the orange/green brand to the blue of Nyhedsavisen
Jura was prominentely used by Metro on the website, in promotion video’s and was even used to train other hawkers.
Nyhedsavisen director Morten Nissen Nielsen told Newspaper Innovation: “It is great news for Nyhedsavisen. We have passed Metro in the big cities in terms of readership, and the recruitment of their no. 1 hawker is just one of those smaller signs, of the changes happening. People who are now getting Nyhedsavisen from Jura call it an upgrade”.
The move is an indication of the increased competition in Denmark. Last readership data showed 24timer, Metro and Nyhedsavisen as the three best read papers in Denmark (see previous post), with newcomers 24timer and Nyhedsavisen seeing sharp increases in readership.
While Nyhedsavisen in third nationwide in readership it was no. 1 in Copenhagen, Aarhus and Odense according to the September TNS research. In those three markets the paper had 388,000 readers - 24timer had 324,000 readers, Metro 304,000 and Urban 279,000. The first paid paper was Politiken with 262,000 readers.
The moves also shows that Nyhedsavisen is - like 24timer - relying on public transport distribution more. When both papers started, they said they would mainly use home delivery. This system, however, means a low number of readers per copy, so public transport is used to increase readership
Nyhedsavisen hires Metro hawker:
Transfers of sports stars are common but in Denmark the best known free daily hawker recently has been tranfered from Metro to competitor Nyhedsavisen.
Brazilian hawker Jura, famous for his enthusiastic behaviour in Copenhagen and distributing to bikers and pedestrians in the central square moved from the orange/green brand to the blue of Nyhedsavisen
Jura was prominentely used by Metro on the website, in promotion video’s and was even used to train other hawkers.
Nyhedsavisen director Morten Nissen Nielsen told Newspaper Innovation: “It is great news for Nyhedsavisen. We have passed Metro in the big cities in terms of readership, and the recruitment of their no. 1 hawker is just one of those smaller signs, of the changes happening. People who are now getting Nyhedsavisen from Jura call it an upgrade”.
The move is an indication of the increased competition in Denmark. Last readership data showed 24timer, Metro and Nyhedsavisen as the three best read papers in Denmark (see previous post), with newcomers 24timer and Nyhedsavisen seeing sharp increases in readership.
While Nyhedsavisen in third nationwide in readership it was no. 1 in Copenhagen, Aarhus and Odense according to the September TNS research. In those three markets the paper had 388,000 readers - 24timer had 324,000 readers, Metro 304,000 and Urban 279,000. The first paid paper was Politiken with 262,000 readers.
The moves also shows that Nyhedsavisen is - like 24timer - relying on public transport distribution more. When both papers started, they said they would mainly use home delivery. This system, however, means a low number of readers per copy, so public transport is used to increase readership
Friday, 2 November 2007
biggest listed company (by value) in US??
its friday - its been a long week so forgive us for republishing rather creating but thanks to www.techcrunch.com
"When Google went public in August 2004, many were impressed that the stock opened at a premium to the price paid in what was then (and in some respects still is) the unheard of direct auction IPO. Some may have dreamed of greatness for Google stock, but if you’d suggested then that Google would pass through $700 a share (it closed at $108.31 on its first day) you would have been derided as a lunatic. On October 31, Google stock passed through $700 a share, becoming the 5th largest listed company in the United States.
A search engine that started under the name of “BackRub” by two Stanford students in 1996 is now on paper worth more than corporate giants including the global banking conglomerate the Citi Group, Proctor and Gamble and Walmart. Google is worth more than the big three US car makers put together, and then some. We may obsess at times over Google, and there is never any shortage of debate in relation to Google’s many activities, but no matter what your views, this is a remarkable achievement.
Google’s growth to date knows no bounds. The company continues to push into new markets, or even creates new markets where none have existed before hand. From mobile phones, to television and radio advertising, software and online software substitutes, the list goes on. This week they’ve even managed to revolutionize the entire social networking market, and all in the space of a couple of days.
As Google’s march forward continues, could Google ultimately become America’s biggest company? The stock growth rates in the following chart would suggest that the answer is yes:
To become the biggest listed company in America Google doesn’t need to reach the (much derided) figure Henry Blodget made of $2000 a share, to beat Exxon Mobil at todays market price, Google stock needs to hit $1572.50 a share.
That figure may sound insane, but we can look at previous stock milestones to chart how long it may take to get to that figure. Google stock grew from $200 to $700 a share in 30 months. It needs an increase of just short of $900 a share so based on the 30 months it will take 54 months (or 4.5 years) for Google to pass Exxon Mobil based on XOM’s current cap. However if we look at Google’s short term growth we see that GOOG stock hit $500 for the first time on June 1st this year. The $200 leap took 5 months. Presuming a similar growth rate Google will become America’s largest company by approximately October 2009.
Growth rates are rarely static so calculating possible time frames is guesswork at best. Exxon Mobil has seen healthy stock increases over the last 5 years so it is likely that its market cap will increase. And yet Google’s growth rate continues to accelerate as well; it took 23 days for Google’s stock to increase from $600 to $700 a share. Analysts are already talking about $800+
Some will deride the notion that Google may become America’s largest company by the end of this decade, and I don’t completely blame them, however the evidence would suggest that Google is heading in that direction. Google is already arguably the most powerful company in the history of the world, controlling so much of our daily lives; it’s not unreasonable to think that it may become the richest company one day as well."
go figure!
"When Google went public in August 2004, many were impressed that the stock opened at a premium to the price paid in what was then (and in some respects still is) the unheard of direct auction IPO. Some may have dreamed of greatness for Google stock, but if you’d suggested then that Google would pass through $700 a share (it closed at $108.31 on its first day) you would have been derided as a lunatic. On October 31, Google stock passed through $700 a share, becoming the 5th largest listed company in the United States.
A search engine that started under the name of “BackRub” by two Stanford students in 1996 is now on paper worth more than corporate giants including the global banking conglomerate the Citi Group, Proctor and Gamble and Walmart. Google is worth more than the big three US car makers put together, and then some. We may obsess at times over Google, and there is never any shortage of debate in relation to Google’s many activities, but no matter what your views, this is a remarkable achievement.
Google’s growth to date knows no bounds. The company continues to push into new markets, or even creates new markets where none have existed before hand. From mobile phones, to television and radio advertising, software and online software substitutes, the list goes on. This week they’ve even managed to revolutionize the entire social networking market, and all in the space of a couple of days.
As Google’s march forward continues, could Google ultimately become America’s biggest company? The stock growth rates in the following chart would suggest that the answer is yes:
To become the biggest listed company in America Google doesn’t need to reach the (much derided) figure Henry Blodget made of $2000 a share, to beat Exxon Mobil at todays market price, Google stock needs to hit $1572.50 a share.
That figure may sound insane, but we can look at previous stock milestones to chart how long it may take to get to that figure. Google stock grew from $200 to $700 a share in 30 months. It needs an increase of just short of $900 a share so based on the 30 months it will take 54 months (or 4.5 years) for Google to pass Exxon Mobil based on XOM’s current cap. However if we look at Google’s short term growth we see that GOOG stock hit $500 for the first time on June 1st this year. The $200 leap took 5 months. Presuming a similar growth rate Google will become America’s largest company by approximately October 2009.
Growth rates are rarely static so calculating possible time frames is guesswork at best. Exxon Mobil has seen healthy stock increases over the last 5 years so it is likely that its market cap will increase. And yet Google’s growth rate continues to accelerate as well; it took 23 days for Google’s stock to increase from $600 to $700 a share. Analysts are already talking about $800+
Some will deride the notion that Google may become America’s largest company by the end of this decade, and I don’t completely blame them, however the evidence would suggest that Google is heading in that direction. Google is already arguably the most powerful company in the history of the world, controlling so much of our daily lives; it’s not unreasonable to think that it may become the richest company one day as well."
go figure!
Wednesday, 31 October 2007
Quote of the day
The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees opportunity in every difficulty.
Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill
Thursday, 25 October 2007
Lovely Story
A teenage Scottish entrepreneur is on his way to becoming a millionaire after he landed a contract to supply15,000 jars a month of his “home-made” jam.
Fraser Doherty, 18, started making jam four years ago as a schoolboy in his Edinburgh home, using his grandmother’s recipe and selling the jars door to door.
Back then it was his parents who helped fill and label the jars. The jam is based on a recipe handed down through generations of the Doherty family.
Having now set up his own company, SuperJam, he is developing new flavours predominantly using so-called super fruits such as blueberries and cranberries in the hope of exciting a market that has changed little for hundreds of years.
Part of Mr Doherty’s success lies in his unusual approach to making jam. Instead of adding large amounts of refined sugar to his recipes – the traditional method – he uses natural fruit juices as a sweetener.
SuperJam has no other employees, hiring a factory in the north of England for a few days a month to make 40,000 jars a month. But Mr Doherty, whose new contract to supply Tesco follows a deal with Waitrose, said he was now considering taking on staff.
Thanks to FTWoops - big but not the biggest
CORRECTION: METRO INTERNATIONAL
On 24 October we blogged on Metro's 3rd quarter results were the worst in its 12 year history (source: WARC).
We now understand that this isnt in fact the case. In fact "there have been a number of quarters more recent showing losses in this size [sic]".
We apologise for the inaccuracy.
We do, however, feel obliged to comment that whilst Q3 2007 may not the biggest loss in Metro history its not a great performance however you look at it is it? And it doesnt improve any because its not the biggest does it?
Market Evolution
ps our view on the business hasnt changed in light of this information we still think the Metro business is strong and full of unrecognized potential
On 24 October we blogged on Metro's 3rd quarter results were the worst in its 12 year history (source: WARC).
We now understand that this isnt in fact the case. In fact "there have been a number of quarters more recent showing losses in this size [sic]".
We apologise for the inaccuracy.
We do, however, feel obliged to comment that whilst Q3 2007 may not the biggest loss in Metro history its not a great performance however you look at it is it? And it doesnt improve any because its not the biggest does it?
Market Evolution
ps our view on the business hasnt changed in light of this information we still think the Metro business is strong and full of unrecognized potential
Radio - we love it
We love radio. We listen to alot of radio - as a nation you understand not just in the ME office!
Seems we are listening in large and increasing numbers on digital radio, listening on the internet, listening on digital tv and even listening via mobile phones as well, of course, as listening on the trannie. In fact 15% of total listening is done via digital channels and its growing.
Radio is a robust and healthy medium with 153 million hours spent listening in the 3 months ending september - overall, the number of adults (aged 15+) tuning in has decreased slightly, down 760,000 quarter on quarter from 45.6 million in Quarter 2, 2007.
Another example of how personal digital technology is changing the way we entertain ourselves.
source: Quarter 3 2007 RAJAR
Seems we are listening in large and increasing numbers on digital radio, listening on the internet, listening on digital tv and even listening via mobile phones as well, of course, as listening on the trannie. In fact 15% of total listening is done via digital channels and its growing.
Radio is a robust and healthy medium with 153 million hours spent listening in the 3 months ending september - overall, the number of adults (aged 15+) tuning in has decreased slightly, down 760,000 quarter on quarter from 45.6 million in Quarter 2, 2007.
Another example of how personal digital technology is changing the way we entertain ourselves.
source: Quarter 3 2007 RAJAR
Microsoft beats Google to Facebook stake
Microsoft will invest $240 million in Facebook and expand its existing advertising relationship to international markets, according to the WSJ.
The $240 million is a minority stake that values Facebook at $15 billion.
Google would have been a better fit but it would have been too expensive to buy out Microsoft from the advertising arrangement so best (cheaper) to stay with who you know.
Wednesday, 24 October 2007
When normal commercial logic is ignored
Our regular readers will have noticed that we comment on a wide range of issues across the broad media landscape. Football isn't usually one of them, but there is a great example of how not to run a business, currently in a death spiral up in the picturesque countryside around the M1/M6 triangle, that we in Market Evolution Towers are following with keen interest.
Coventry City Football Club, former top division stalwarts and FA Cup winners, have spent the last 5 seasons out of the money generating Premiership, languishing in mid table obscurity in the Championship. For those among us with an unhealthy obsession with all things sky-blue, this has been a bad thing to happen.
Only it's got worse. Much, much worse. And now, there's a great example of a brand treating its customers with complete disdain. The Board of Directors over the past 8 years seem to have taken an interesting and innovative approach to business management, reminiscent of Icarus, but without any obvious warmth being apparent from flying close to the Sun.
With £34m debts, having sold one stadium and lost any control over the new one, minimal revenue streams, and a monthly cash burn that would make boo.com hide behind the sofa, things are looking very very grim at the Ricoh Arena. It appears that money was gambled on the playing field, on the assumption that a takeover would magically appear if the players failed to reached the promised land of a season in the Premiership. However, it's not happened, bills have not been paid, the Inland Revenue is owed money, the FA have placed a transfer embargo on the club for failing to pay agreed transfer fees, the Acting Chairman has returned to his consituency, and the MD has fallen on his sword. As Oliver Hardy would have said "That's another fine mess you've got us into".
So, why is this of any interest? From a media perspective, this is exactly the situation where a local paper, in a 1 club city, can provide a focus, whip up support and generally shout loudly about finding out the truth, "where has the money gone", "who authorised that decision" "who forgot the basic rules of financial management" - the difficult questions that someone needs to ask and get the answers. The Coventry (Evening as was) Telegraph has the opportunity to stand tall, excel at investigative journalism, and unite the emotional supporters back with their brand, and sell more newspapers at the same time.
I wonder why they haven't to date? Sports sells papers, local football sells even more. Carpe Diem Mr Editor, before administration, liquidation, and away trips to Keswick Town are on the schedule.
Football post over, back to the less emotional world of business and media tomorrow.
Coventry City Football Club, former top division stalwarts and FA Cup winners, have spent the last 5 seasons out of the money generating Premiership, languishing in mid table obscurity in the Championship. For those among us with an unhealthy obsession with all things sky-blue, this has been a bad thing to happen.
Only it's got worse. Much, much worse. And now, there's a great example of a brand treating its customers with complete disdain. The Board of Directors over the past 8 years seem to have taken an interesting and innovative approach to business management, reminiscent of Icarus, but without any obvious warmth being apparent from flying close to the Sun.
With £34m debts, having sold one stadium and lost any control over the new one, minimal revenue streams, and a monthly cash burn that would make boo.com hide behind the sofa, things are looking very very grim at the Ricoh Arena. It appears that money was gambled on the playing field, on the assumption that a takeover would magically appear if the players failed to reached the promised land of a season in the Premiership. However, it's not happened, bills have not been paid, the Inland Revenue is owed money, the FA have placed a transfer embargo on the club for failing to pay agreed transfer fees, the Acting Chairman has returned to his consituency, and the MD has fallen on his sword. As Oliver Hardy would have said "That's another fine mess you've got us into".
So, why is this of any interest? From a media perspective, this is exactly the situation where a local paper, in a 1 club city, can provide a focus, whip up support and generally shout loudly about finding out the truth, "where has the money gone", "who authorised that decision" "who forgot the basic rules of financial management" - the difficult questions that someone needs to ask and get the answers. The Coventry (Evening as was) Telegraph has the opportunity to stand tall, excel at investigative journalism, and unite the emotional supporters back with their brand, and sell more newspapers at the same time.
I wonder why they haven't to date? Sports sells papers, local football sells even more. Carpe Diem Mr Editor, before administration, liquidation, and away trips to Keswick Town are on the schedule.
Football post over, back to the less emotional world of business and media tomorrow.
Metro International - historical low
When I posted notes on Metro Q3 figures (below) what I failed to realise was that they were the worst set of quarterly figures in the publisher's twelve-year lifetime (source:WARC). Ouch!
As said below we think the fundementals are good but radical surgery is undoubtedly required. Competition has increased distribution costs and reduced advertising yields - not good when your revenue model is sole source!
Real value is in delivering a known and global youthful audience across multiple platforms for advertisers AND nurturing a direct relationship with the 20m readers.
Staying with Free market for one more second. One imagines that Metro is not alone in feeling pain . The drives of the free market are the same for everyone in it. Therefore we should expect to see more poor news from the sector. Time for consolidation?
As said below we think the fundementals are good but radical surgery is undoubtedly required. Competition has increased distribution costs and reduced advertising yields - not good when your revenue model is sole source!
Real value is in delivering a known and global youthful audience across multiple platforms for advertisers AND nurturing a direct relationship with the 20m readers.
Staying with Free market for one more second. One imagines that Metro is not alone in feeling pain . The drives of the free market are the same for everyone in it. Therefore we should expect to see more poor news from the sector. Time for consolidation?
Tuesday, 23 October 2007
Mobiles on Planes - oh the outrage
Seems that the recent news that airlines are testing in-flight mobile usage has caused a terrible outrage.
The Daily Telegraph has started a petition to keep airlines mobile free citing passenger sanity and security reasons..... so far 3,500 outraged readers have signed up!
The Daily Telegraph has started a petition to keep airlines mobile free citing passenger sanity and security reasons..... so far 3,500 outraged readers have signed up!
Time to ask Periscopers what they think of full mobile use.
In the meantime please participate in our poll which can be found above and on the left of the blog
Thursday, 18 October 2007
Making the ShortList
We've done a lot of work with free printed media products around the world, it's an area we've worked both client and agency side on, for newspapers and magazines.
It's a business proposition we've found fascinating for a number of years now, particularly the difficult balancing act of product quality, distribution effectiveness and advertising yields. Get it right and build a monopoly or duopoly market and you can create a good revenue stream. Get sucked into a 3 or 4 player market, and watch the cash burn at a rapid rate.
Leaving the bloodbath of free London afternoon newspapers to one side for now, here's an observation on men's mags. Last year saw Sport successfully launch in London, with a high quality product targeted at a specific gender and demographic. 13 months on, it's in good shape, which is to be applauded.
ShortList is a recent entry into the same space, distributed on Thursdays, with the tagline: "Free for men! Movies, news, sport, TV, Cars, Style". Issue 5 is out today, with lads favourite Jeremy "He's got opinions and he's not afraid to use them" Clarkson looming large on the cover (not that JC ever looms "small" anywhere, his paunch on a 42" widescreen TV is quite alarming).
There's rarely much warmth and congratulations flying around the London media world, but Shortlist should be in line for some. Obviously pulled together by people who understand their target audience well, with good quality content, it's an exciting and welcome addition to the media landscape. They've got the product right almost from the off. Now it's down to effective distribution and a good advertising yield to cement its position.
The free London magazine market is well served if you are a bloke, but will anyone take the plunge and take one of the declining national paid for womens' magazine brands, and spin off a free weekly women's mag? Will be interesting to see if anyone is willing to take the plunge, innovate, and grow a whole new market.
Free is here to stay, and it's only going to get bigger.
It's a business proposition we've found fascinating for a number of years now, particularly the difficult balancing act of product quality, distribution effectiveness and advertising yields. Get it right and build a monopoly or duopoly market and you can create a good revenue stream. Get sucked into a 3 or 4 player market, and watch the cash burn at a rapid rate.
Leaving the bloodbath of free London afternoon newspapers to one side for now, here's an observation on men's mags. Last year saw Sport successfully launch in London, with a high quality product targeted at a specific gender and demographic. 13 months on, it's in good shape, which is to be applauded.
ShortList is a recent entry into the same space, distributed on Thursdays, with the tagline: "Free for men! Movies, news, sport, TV, Cars, Style". Issue 5 is out today, with lads favourite Jeremy "He's got opinions and he's not afraid to use them" Clarkson looming large on the cover (not that JC ever looms "small" anywhere, his paunch on a 42" widescreen TV is quite alarming).
There's rarely much warmth and congratulations flying around the London media world, but Shortlist should be in line for some. Obviously pulled together by people who understand their target audience well, with good quality content, it's an exciting and welcome addition to the media landscape. They've got the product right almost from the off. Now it's down to effective distribution and a good advertising yield to cement its position.
The free London magazine market is well served if you are a bloke, but will anyone take the plunge and take one of the declining national paid for womens' magazine brands, and spin off a free weekly women's mag? Will be interesting to see if anyone is willing to take the plunge, innovate, and grow a whole new market.
Free is here to stay, and it's only going to get bigger.
Wednesday, 17 October 2007
Metro International: Losses Widen
Metro International recently issued a third-quarter trading update/profits warning. It warned of deeper than expected operating losses of £6.5m (versus £4.5m loss last time).
Whilst disappointing these results aren't all together surprising:
1. Freesheet newspapers are an expensive business
2. Freesheet newspapers is an uber competitive business (i.e there are lots of them)
2. Freesheet are (completely) dependent on single revenue stream - advertising
3. Advertising revenues are under intense pressure from freesheet competitors and digital channels which has led to lower ad rates and reduced margins particularly in mature/maturing markets (Sweden etc)
4. Being FREE isn't enough (consumers have lots of free alternative media/ents channels).
5. International businesses are challenging to manage. They require good people, strong organisation and investment.
That said Metro is underlyingly a good business.
Our strategic advice would be to immediately stop being a collector of countries/markets 'presence' business and transition the business into an integrated aggregator of a young global audience. The value is in audience relationship and (multi-channel) delivery and its potentially enormous. Metro has some 20 million readers.
But it's rapid growth and its low(est) cost model has left it painfully under resourced and weak. Therefore, more than anything Metro needs (a lot of) love and attention. It needs to build capacity. It needs to invest in talent.
Top management team (as we have written here before) is capable. Per Mikael Jensen (CEO) is a strong manager and a talented media man. Denis Malamatinas (Chairman) is charismatic and experienced. They are backed by the Board and the investors.
The good news is that Metro has in fact done the difficult bit (built a brand, established an audience etc) and now its time to consolidate and leverage.
We think they have a great chance.
Tuesday, 16 October 2007
Monday, 15 October 2007
Blood in the water?
We don't like to comment on politics that often, but now is one of those times where I feel the need to share some thoughts.
Gordon's honeymoon is well and truly over, managing to alienate the bedrock of the UK commercial community by increasing Capital Gains Tax to discourage entrepreneurial activity and success. More on this, from the coal face, on a separate post.
David Cameron's performance at the Conference was well received,and the polls spooked Gordon sufficiently to perform a neat U-turn on an early election. This weekend saw some of the Blairite big beasts briefing against Gordon, a sign of early panic and distrust in the new direction?
And tonight, Sir Menzies Campbell steps down, apparently feeling he had taken the party as far as he could since Charles Kennedy called last orders on his time in power. A timely resignation for the Lib Dems, clearing the decks to give a new incumbent a likely 18 months lead time before the next election. Will Lembit Opik have a run for the top, leading to the possibility of a cheeky girl being installed in Number 10? Can you imagine the scene if Hillary Clinton was elected, and brought Bill over to a high powered summit at Number 10, to meet with Lembit and his Transylvanian Cheeky Girl. I'd pay to watch that.
Has Gordon rescued defeat from the jaws of victory? He's bought himself some time, but with discontent in his own party, Cameron ahead in the polls, and the Lib Dems stirring into an 18 month period of activity, there looks like there's a lot of blood in the water, and the sharks are circling closer and closer. In the Labour lifeboat, the discussions on who to throw out first must be starting.
Gordon's honeymoon is well and truly over, managing to alienate the bedrock of the UK commercial community by increasing Capital Gains Tax to discourage entrepreneurial activity and success. More on this, from the coal face, on a separate post.
David Cameron's performance at the Conference was well received,and the polls spooked Gordon sufficiently to perform a neat U-turn on an early election. This weekend saw some of the Blairite big beasts briefing against Gordon, a sign of early panic and distrust in the new direction?
And tonight, Sir Menzies Campbell steps down, apparently feeling he had taken the party as far as he could since Charles Kennedy called last orders on his time in power. A timely resignation for the Lib Dems, clearing the decks to give a new incumbent a likely 18 months lead time before the next election. Will Lembit Opik have a run for the top, leading to the possibility of a cheeky girl being installed in Number 10? Can you imagine the scene if Hillary Clinton was elected, and brought Bill over to a high powered summit at Number 10, to meet with Lembit and his Transylvanian Cheeky Girl. I'd pay to watch that.
Has Gordon rescued defeat from the jaws of victory? He's bought himself some time, but with discontent in his own party, Cameron ahead in the polls, and the Lib Dems stirring into an 18 month period of activity, there looks like there's a lot of blood in the water, and the sharks are circling closer and closer. In the Labour lifeboat, the discussions on who to throw out first must be starting.
UK Newspapers online (August 2007)
According to the latest Nielsen//NetRatings figures for August 2007, The Guardian remains the most popular national UK newspaper website, as it has been for each of the last 12 months, with 2.7m unique visitors, equal to one in every twelve Britons active online.
The figures also show the Daily Mail and the Telegraph are the fastest growing amongst the "Top 10" national newspapers.
The Daily Mail has more than doubled its audience from 0.7m in Dec 2006 to 1.4m in Aug 2007, a 117 percent growth.
The Telegraph is the only other of the "Top 10" to at least double its audience; growing by 106% from 1m to 2.1m.
For the first time in 2007, The Sun (2m unique users) lost second spot; and is now third behind the Telegraph in terms of popularity.
Thursday, 11 October 2007
Burmese Monks Protest Supporters on Facebook - latest
as of 09/10/2007 380,00 people had signed up in support of the Monks' protest
when we last posted on 30/09/2007 the protest support group had 214,000 members
Busted
It seems that sexist so and so who so insensivitively shot down the proposal of marriage on Craiglist (posted below) signed his name and the company where he worked, which happened to be the investment banking division of JPMorgan Chase. JPMorgan Chase public relations department confirms the named [gentleman] works there but was not the author just the forwarder!
Let this be a (another) lesson in the dangers of e-mail getting into the wrong hands.
Let this be a (another) lesson in the dangers of e-mail getting into the wrong hands.
Woops there goes another one
Looks like the rush for the record label door continues as Madonna is rumoured to be leaving her long term record label and signing with Live Nation. according to article in New York Times.
This deal is interesting in that it is based on so called 360 deals where all aspects of the artists career including touring, merchandising etc are managed in return for cash and stock.
In other news the Eagles, is selling its new album directly to Wal-Mart Stores.
This deal is interesting in that it is based on so called 360 deals where all aspects of the artists career including touring, merchandising etc are managed in return for cash and stock.
In other news the Eagles, is selling its new album directly to Wal-Mart Stores.
Wednesday, 10 October 2007
Google's founders, Larry Page and Sergey Brin, are now worth more than $17bn each.
GOOGLE SHARES MAKE $600 BREAKTHROUGH
MOUNTAIN VIEW, California: Google's rampant success in the world of web search and the increasing migration of advertisers online have propelled the company's share price through the $600 (€427; £295) barrier.
Investors have high hopes for the online titan's third-quarter earnings, due to be announced next week, and this latest surge places Google's market value at around $187 billion.
The company is now worth more than more than Wal-Mart, Coca-Cola, Hewlett-Packard and IBM. It was floated just over three ago at $85 per share.
Source: WARC.
MOUNTAIN VIEW, California: Google's rampant success in the world of web search and the increasing migration of advertisers online have propelled the company's share price through the $600 (€427; £295) barrier.Investors have high hopes for the online titan's third-quarter earnings, due to be announced next week, and this latest surge places Google's market value at around $187 billion.
The company is now worth more than more than Wal-Mart, Coca-Cola, Hewlett-Packard and IBM. It was floated just over three ago at $85 per share.
Source: WARC.
More bands bang nails in record industry coffin
Jamiroquai and Oasis, two major names that are not contracted to a record labels, are rumoured to be considering following Radiohead by offering work for free, according to industry sources.
bang, bang - is that the sound of nails going into record industry coffin? or the sound of gunfire in music biz boardrooms?
bang, bang - is that the sound of nails going into record industry coffin? or the sound of gunfire in music biz boardrooms?
TV Habits (UK)
Data just in from our Periscope digital lifestyle survey
Compared to 6 months ago:
- 18% watching more tv
- 32% are watching less tv
- 63% are watching about the same
Skype Founder defends eBay price
Futher to Craig's previous post on Skype and eBay have a read of this article in New York Times where Skype founder Niklas Zennstrom puts up a solid(ish) defence of his decision to sell to eBay and why the price was fair.
My take is Skype revenues are bigger than Facebooks' and Facebook is valued at $13bn so Skype is real value.
Two further thoughts:
Does the eBay write down have any financial or tax benefits?
Or is it more about not wanting to pay last tranche of cash to founders?
Thoughts?
My take is Skype revenues are bigger than Facebooks' and Facebook is valued at $13bn so Skype is real value.
Two further thoughts:
Does the eBay write down have any financial or tax benefits?
Or is it more about not wanting to pay last tranche of cash to founders?
Thoughts?
Tuesday, 9 October 2007
Google backlash begins
Following on from yesterday's post on the googlephone, today sees Arun Sarin, Chief Exec of Vodafone adopt an aggressive stance on this news.
Mr Sarin claimed it was unclear what a Google phone would offer consumers, and that mobile phones could already access google, negating the need for a google specific phone.
Two things spring to mind.
Firstly, Mr Sarin seems to be in the dark about why google would want to launch a phone. A wiser man than me once said, "if you look around and see only darkness, look up to make sure you are not just alone in a deep hole". For me, Mr Sarin is in denial - he's protecting Vodafone live services, accessible through his network, which Vodafone have bet a large amount of money on successfully generating a valuable revenue stream from to replace the increasingly commoditised text and voice revenues. Googlephone would bring the internet streaming onto the mobile, portalled and coralled by google to replace "Operator own label" services.
Secondly, advertising. Google loves advertising, and with shares at over $600 a pop, it needs to continue its reach and growth. Mobile provides a new audience touchpoint, and this must also be making Mr Sarin reach for the Nurofen and find himself a dark room to lie down in.
It will be interesting to see whether the O2 and Apple iPhone deal is replicated with the Googlephone and one of the other operators. Watch to see if Mr Sarin goes on to perform an about-turn worthy of an Australian scrum in Paris.
Mr Sarin claimed it was unclear what a Google phone would offer consumers, and that mobile phones could already access google, negating the need for a google specific phone.
Two things spring to mind.
Firstly, Mr Sarin seems to be in the dark about why google would want to launch a phone. A wiser man than me once said, "if you look around and see only darkness, look up to make sure you are not just alone in a deep hole". For me, Mr Sarin is in denial - he's protecting Vodafone live services, accessible through his network, which Vodafone have bet a large amount of money on successfully generating a valuable revenue stream from to replace the increasingly commoditised text and voice revenues. Googlephone would bring the internet streaming onto the mobile, portalled and coralled by google to replace "Operator own label" services.
Secondly, advertising. Google loves advertising, and with shares at over $600 a pop, it needs to continue its reach and growth. Mobile provides a new audience touchpoint, and this must also be making Mr Sarin reach for the Nurofen and find himself a dark room to lie down in.
It will be interesting to see whether the O2 and Apple iPhone deal is replicated with the Googlephone and one of the other operators. Watch to see if Mr Sarin goes on to perform an about-turn worthy of an Australian scrum in Paris.
Monday, 8 October 2007
Gphone - Google going mobile?
There has been much market excitement around Google and it's mobile ambitions. The mobile industry has been gossiping and sniping for ages now. Insider say the mobile project has been underdevelopment for 2 years or so. Headhunters have reported that Google have been snapping up mobile technologists from across the world to drive the project. The whispers continue today with a piece in the New York Times under the heading 'For Google, Advertising and Phones Go Together'.
Not much is new or evidenced based in the piece but it's fascinating stuff and well worth a read.
What seems clear is that the Gphone is well on its way and that Google's aim will be on extending it's hold on digital advertising to include mobiles. Google already know lots about us when we are at out desktops but absloutely nothing about us when we are on the move. They now want to add location/on the move information to the data they hold on each of us. Imagine how powerful the full set of personal data is for advertising and how valuable!
What is, also,pretty clear is that the Google play is a software play i.e the operating system rather than the handset itself (if there is one) will will be made by someone else.
It's not going to easy and the networks won't encourage Google crashing the party as they are fearful of being disaggregated but as the New York Times piece says 'if Google-powered phones prove to be a hit with consumers, carriers (networks) may feel pressure to follow suit'.
Also if Apple can do it with a cool box but poor operating system why can't Google with a cool operating system and someone else's Google branded box?
Who would bet against Google in the mobile space - they have brand, brains and bundles of cash but there is no doubt that they will need plenty of all three.
Bigger issue is do we as consumer want Google to know where we have been and what we have been doing?
Absolutely not.
Not much is new or evidenced based in the piece but it's fascinating stuff and well worth a read.
What seems clear is that the Gphone is well on its way and that Google's aim will be on extending it's hold on digital advertising to include mobiles. Google already know lots about us when we are at out desktops but absloutely nothing about us when we are on the move. They now want to add location/on the move information to the data they hold on each of us. Imagine how powerful the full set of personal data is for advertising and how valuable!
What is, also,pretty clear is that the Google play is a software play i.e the operating system rather than the handset itself (if there is one) will will be made by someone else.
It's not going to easy and the networks won't encourage Google crashing the party as they are fearful of being disaggregated but as the New York Times piece says 'if Google-powered phones prove to be a hit with consumers, carriers (networks) may feel pressure to follow suit'.
Also if Apple can do it with a cool box but poor operating system why can't Google with a cool operating system and someone else's Google branded box?
Who would bet against Google in the mobile space - they have brand, brains and bundles of cash but there is no doubt that they will need plenty of all three.
Bigger issue is do we as consumer want Google to know where we have been and what we have been doing?
Absolutely not.
Friday, 5 October 2007
In stormy weather.....
Could this ever happen in UK? or US? Bear in mind these are the worlds biggest selling newspapers.
TOKYO: Japan's leading newspapers have been prompted into a unique online alliance as they attempt to rekindle readers' interest in the face of a serious internet challenge.
The Yomiuri Shimbun, the Asahi Shimbun and the Nikkei dailies, which between them currently boast more than 21 million readers, are planning a joint website and further cooperation in distribution -possibly by combining delivery operations in rural areas to cut costs.
TOKYO: Japan's leading newspapers have been prompted into a unique online alliance as they attempt to rekindle readers' interest in the face of a serious internet challenge.
The Yomiuri Shimbun, the Asahi Shimbun and the Nikkei dailies, which between them currently boast more than 21 million readers, are planning a joint website and further cooperation in distribution -possibly by combining delivery operations in rural areas to cut costs.
Social networking or vicious put down?
THIS APPEARED ON CRAIG'S LIST in US. its a little long but stay with it.....
What am I doing wrong?
Okay, I'm tired of beating around the bush. I'm a beautiful(spectacularly beautiful) 25 year old girl. I'm articulate and classy.I'm not from New York. I'm looking to get married to a guy who makes atleast half a million a year. I know how that sounds, but keep in mind that a million a year is middle class in New York City, so I don't think
I'm overreaching at all.
Are there any guys who make 500K or more on this board? Any wives? Could you send me some tips? I dated a business man who makes average around 200 - 250. But that's where I seem to hit a roadblock. 250,000 won't get me to central park west. I know a woman in my yoga class who was married to an investment banker and lives in Tribeca, and she's not as pretty as I am, nor is she a great genius. So what is she doing right? How do I get to her level?
Here are my questions specifically:
- Where do you single rich men hang out? Give me specifics- bars, restaurants, gyms
-What are you looking for in a mate? Be honest guys, you won't hurt my feelings
-Is there an age range I should be targeting (I'm 25)?
- Why are some of the women living lavish lifestyles on the upper east side so plain? I've seen really 'plain jane' boring types who have nothing to offer married to incredibly wealthy guys. I've seen drop dead gorgeous girls in singles bars in the east village. What's the story there?
- Jobs I should look out for? Everyone knows - lawyer, investment banker, doctor. How much do those guys really make? And where do they hang out? Where do the hedge fund guys hang out?
- How you decide marriage vs. just a girlfriend? I am looking for MARRIAGE ONLY
Please hold your insults - I'm putting myself out there in an honest way. Most beautiful women are superficial; at least I'm being up front about it. I wouldn't be searching for these kind of guys if I wasn't able to match them - in looks, culture, sophistication, and keeping a nice home and hearth.
it's NOT ok to contact this poster with services or other commercial interests
PostingID: 432279810
THE ANSWER
Dear Pers-431649184:
I read your posting with great interest and have thought meaningfully about your dilemma. I offer the following analysis of your predicament. Firstly, I'm not wasting your time, I qualify as a guy who fits your bill; that is I make more than $500K per year. That said here's how I see it.
Your offer, from the prospective of a guy like me, is plain and simple a crappy business deal. Here's why. Cutting through all the B.S., what you suggest is a simple trade: you bring your looks to the party and I bring my money. Fine, simple. But here's the rub, your looks will fade and my money will likely continue into perpetuity...in fact, it is very likely that my income increases but it is an absolute certainty that you won't be getting any more beautiful!
So, in economic terms you are a depreciating asset and I am an earning asset. Not only are you a depreciating asset, your depreciation accelerates! Let me explain, you're 25 now and will likely stay pretty hot for the next 5 years, but less so each year. Then the fade begins in earnest. By 35 stick a fork in you!
So in Wall Street terms, we would call you a trading position, not a buy and hold...hence the rub...marriage. It doesn't make good business sense to "buy you" (which is what you're asking) so I'd rather lease. In case you think I'm being cruel, I would say the following. If my money were to go away, so would you, so when your beauty fades I need an out. It's as simple as that. So a deal that makes sense is dating, not marriage.
Separately, I was taught early in my career about efficient markets. So, I wonder why a girl as "articulate, classy and spectacularly beautiful" as you has been unable to find your sugar daddy. I find it hard to believe that if you are as gorgeous as you say you are that the $500K hasn't found you, if not only for a tryout.
By the way, you could always find a way to make your own money and then we wouldn't need to have this difficult conversation.
With all that said, I must say you're going about it the right way. Classic "pump and dump." I hope this is helpful, and if you want to enter into some sort of
lease, let me know.
What am I doing wrong?
Okay, I'm tired of beating around the bush. I'm a beautiful(spectacularly beautiful) 25 year old girl. I'm articulate and classy.I'm not from New York. I'm looking to get married to a guy who makes atleast half a million a year. I know how that sounds, but keep in mind that a million a year is middle class in New York City, so I don't think
I'm overreaching at all.
Are there any guys who make 500K or more on this board? Any wives? Could you send me some tips? I dated a business man who makes average around 200 - 250. But that's where I seem to hit a roadblock. 250,000 won't get me to central park west. I know a woman in my yoga class who was married to an investment banker and lives in Tribeca, and she's not as pretty as I am, nor is she a great genius. So what is she doing right? How do I get to her level?
Here are my questions specifically:
- Where do you single rich men hang out? Give me specifics- bars, restaurants, gyms
-What are you looking for in a mate? Be honest guys, you won't hurt my feelings
-Is there an age range I should be targeting (I'm 25)?
- Why are some of the women living lavish lifestyles on the upper east side so plain? I've seen really 'plain jane' boring types who have nothing to offer married to incredibly wealthy guys. I've seen drop dead gorgeous girls in singles bars in the east village. What's the story there?
- Jobs I should look out for? Everyone knows - lawyer, investment banker, doctor. How much do those guys really make? And where do they hang out? Where do the hedge fund guys hang out?
- How you decide marriage vs. just a girlfriend? I am looking for MARRIAGE ONLY
Please hold your insults - I'm putting myself out there in an honest way. Most beautiful women are superficial; at least I'm being up front about it. I wouldn't be searching for these kind of guys if I wasn't able to match them - in looks, culture, sophistication, and keeping a nice home and hearth.
it's NOT ok to contact this poster with services or other commercial interests
PostingID: 432279810
THE ANSWER
Dear Pers-431649184:
I read your posting with great interest and have thought meaningfully about your dilemma. I offer the following analysis of your predicament. Firstly, I'm not wasting your time, I qualify as a guy who fits your bill; that is I make more than $500K per year. That said here's how I see it.
Your offer, from the prospective of a guy like me, is plain and simple a crappy business deal. Here's why. Cutting through all the B.S., what you suggest is a simple trade: you bring your looks to the party and I bring my money. Fine, simple. But here's the rub, your looks will fade and my money will likely continue into perpetuity...in fact, it is very likely that my income increases but it is an absolute certainty that you won't be getting any more beautiful!
So, in economic terms you are a depreciating asset and I am an earning asset. Not only are you a depreciating asset, your depreciation accelerates! Let me explain, you're 25 now and will likely stay pretty hot for the next 5 years, but less so each year. Then the fade begins in earnest. By 35 stick a fork in you!
So in Wall Street terms, we would call you a trading position, not a buy and hold...hence the rub...marriage. It doesn't make good business sense to "buy you" (which is what you're asking) so I'd rather lease. In case you think I'm being cruel, I would say the following. If my money were to go away, so would you, so when your beauty fades I need an out. It's as simple as that. So a deal that makes sense is dating, not marriage.
Separately, I was taught early in my career about efficient markets. So, I wonder why a girl as "articulate, classy and spectacularly beautiful" as you has been unable to find your sugar daddy. I find it hard to believe that if you are as gorgeous as you say you are that the $500K hasn't found you, if not only for a tryout.
By the way, you could always find a way to make your own money and then we wouldn't need to have this difficult conversation.
With all that said, I must say you're going about it the right way. Classic "pump and dump." I hope this is helpful, and if you want to enter into some sort of
lease, let me know.
Thursday, 4 October 2007
Wikipedia - friend or foe?
Some light relief from the more serious commercial discussions on BSkyB and Northern Rock.
Greenslade on MediaGuardian, a commentator who is right more times than wrong, makes a vaguely amusing point on his blog today. Commenting on the obituary of Ronnie Hazlehurst, he raises the issue that Wikipedia has the potential for user-generated merriment and deception. I read the obit in The Times yesterday and raised a quizzical eyebrow at the reference to RH co-writing a big hit for S Club 7, that popular beat combo from the early noughties.
Apparently this nugget was lifted directly from Wikipedia, and was a mischievous piece of nonsense, since removed. A good demonstration of the perils of relying on user generated content exclusively.
The internet is good for many things, but not cutting and pasting content for publication directly into quality publications. What's next, the front page copied directly from netvibes?
Greenslade on MediaGuardian, a commentator who is right more times than wrong, makes a vaguely amusing point on his blog today. Commenting on the obituary of Ronnie Hazlehurst, he raises the issue that Wikipedia has the potential for user-generated merriment and deception. I read the obit in The Times yesterday and raised a quizzical eyebrow at the reference to RH co-writing a big hit for S Club 7, that popular beat combo from the early noughties.
Apparently this nugget was lifted directly from Wikipedia, and was a mischievous piece of nonsense, since removed. A good demonstration of the perils of relying on user generated content exclusively.
The internet is good for many things, but not cutting and pasting content for publication directly into quality publications. What's next, the front page copied directly from netvibes?
Wednesday, 3 October 2007
The Sky's limited - what's the appropriate level for a stake in ITV?
We are following the BSkyB and ITV story with ongoing interest. Rupert Murdoch's expansion into free to air commercial television through a legitimate backdoor, or so he thought.
To recap, BSkyB spent £940million buying ITV shares at 135p a share in November 2006.
The Competition Commission has found that the 17.9% holding owned by BSkyB was "against the public interest", as it gave Sky "a material influence over ITV", namely the ability to block shareholder resolutions requiring 75% approval, in effect, putting a potential handbrake on Michael Grade's freedom to move ITV forward in any direction he required.
Interestingly, the decision wasn't made on the grounds that the situation was anti-competitive in terms of TV advertising markets, sports rights bidding or plurality in television news - in effect then finding against Sky on the grounds of what it could potentially do, rather than what it actually has done.
Guilty until proven innocent? Is this fair?
Looks like Sky will be forced to reduce its position to around the 10% to 15% mark - which at todays share price of around 105p a share, will crystallise a £100m+ loss.
So, in effect, being "indirectly fined" for buying a position in a competitive business with only mere potential for causing trouble at some point.
Fair or not? Any views?
To recap, BSkyB spent £940million buying ITV shares at 135p a share in November 2006.
The Competition Commission has found that the 17.9% holding owned by BSkyB was "against the public interest", as it gave Sky "a material influence over ITV", namely the ability to block shareholder resolutions requiring 75% approval, in effect, putting a potential handbrake on Michael Grade's freedom to move ITV forward in any direction he required.
Interestingly, the decision wasn't made on the grounds that the situation was anti-competitive in terms of TV advertising markets, sports rights bidding or plurality in television news - in effect then finding against Sky on the grounds of what it could potentially do, rather than what it actually has done.
Guilty until proven innocent? Is this fair?
Looks like Sky will be forced to reduce its position to around the 10% to 15% mark - which at todays share price of around 105p a share, will crystallise a £100m+ loss.
So, in effect, being "indirectly fined" for buying a position in a competitive business with only mere potential for causing trouble at some point.
Fair or not? Any views?
Tuesday, 2 October 2007
A run on a bank - an insider view
Musings on a run on a bank.
Much has been written over the past few weeks about Northern Rock and the supervision of the banking system.Many people now know-if they have bothered to read or listen to even a fraction of what has been written –infinitely more than they knew before about the way the markets work.Greater minds than mine have analysed the cause and consequences so all I want to do is make some observations.
1.When is a guarantee not a use of public funds.
I heard a minister being interviewed-he was asked why the government had intervened on Northern Rock but would not put more money into the bankrupt pension schemes.The minister pointed out that there should be not misunderstanding the government had not put any public money into Northern Rock.I ask myself the question-does the £8billion that the Bank of England had advanced not count?.Would his attitude change if the guarantee was called-but maybe he wasn’t worried as the vast proportion of the deposit guarantee scheme would come from the banking sector only.I am left confused-who is guaranteeing what to whom?One commentator recently pointed out that Northern Rock has around £25 billion of deposits.Even if only half was in amounts of less than £35,000 then the providers of this guarantee would need to find £12.5 billion –where was this going to come from.
2 The Bank of England was right
We read that the £10billion Bank of England lifeline was shunned. The rest of the banking community did not need the liquidity-the only one they didn’t want to lend to was Northern Rock.So what we have is a sneeze in the banking system,with the major banks and other funding institutions taking stock of their risk and Northern Rock the riskiest player in town catching a serious cold.The only question now is whether the cold is going to turn into something more serious because having been a heavy smoker a cold can always go to the chest.
3 Shit happens
The events in the money markets were described as being 10 standard deviations away from the norm.In plain english this means that the financial engineers who created the business model convinced themselves and everybody involved that it was so unlikely to happen it could be ignored.How often do we hear about 100 year events-usually in the context of the weather or some other natural phenomenon.And guess what-how often do 100 year events seem to happen close to each other.Standard deviations are a traditional analysis that relies on normal distributions and based on statistical analysis.We all know about Lies ,damned lies and statistics-maybe we should ask a few more questions about who helped create the Northern Rock business model and who got paid to continuously roll out these mortgage backed securities and given the billions involved I cannot believe that there isn’t a city bonus or two that has relied on this gravy train.
4 Consumers were right to run for their money
I spoke with a number of city contacts and friends.Without exception they said they would have withdrawn money-each subject to a threshhold determined by their own wealth and the level of deposit guarantee.No one would have left more than £40,000.(why that level I do not know) .I suspect that each of these financially sophistcated individuals would be materially richer than the average depositor at Northern Rock.The authorities have therefore had a sharp lesson in consumer behaviour and need to take note.Furthermore I dispute that runs on banks are reserved for banana republics-it is only because we have a sophisticated financial system that we could create the situation in the first place and then manage it.If shit happens that sophisticated people conclude is so remote that they could create £100billion of financial instruments then your ordinary consumer is perfectly entitled to conclude that it can happen again and take his business elsewhere.Shareholders take the equity risk and expect an appropriate return-depositors get low returns and take low risk.Risk is ckearly more about perception than it is about statistical analysis.
5 The lesson everyone has forgotten to mention
The on line banking model failed-the capacity was inadequate and the depositors had no right of branch access.I am sure that this failure added to the loss in consumer confidence.No one has yet sat down and started talking about the levels of resilience and service required to maintain an on line banking service.If we live in a 24 hour on line digital world it is amazing how fast everyone demanded the right to deal through a branch.
I am sure this will rumble on but I believe at the moment the true culprits are still free to commit the crime again-assume away the risk and anything is possible until shit happens.
The consumer was right –the consumer must also be aware of on-line limitations.
Thank you to our guest blogger - he who knows from the inside!
Much has been written over the past few weeks about Northern Rock and the supervision of the banking system.Many people now know-if they have bothered to read or listen to even a fraction of what has been written –infinitely more than they knew before about the way the markets work.Greater minds than mine have analysed the cause and consequences so all I want to do is make some observations.
1.When is a guarantee not a use of public funds.
I heard a minister being interviewed-he was asked why the government had intervened on Northern Rock but would not put more money into the bankrupt pension schemes.The minister pointed out that there should be not misunderstanding the government had not put any public money into Northern Rock.I ask myself the question-does the £8billion that the Bank of England had advanced not count?.Would his attitude change if the guarantee was called-but maybe he wasn’t worried as the vast proportion of the deposit guarantee scheme would come from the banking sector only.I am left confused-who is guaranteeing what to whom?One commentator recently pointed out that Northern Rock has around £25 billion of deposits.Even if only half was in amounts of less than £35,000 then the providers of this guarantee would need to find £12.5 billion –where was this going to come from.
2 The Bank of England was right
We read that the £10billion Bank of England lifeline was shunned. The rest of the banking community did not need the liquidity-the only one they didn’t want to lend to was Northern Rock.So what we have is a sneeze in the banking system,with the major banks and other funding institutions taking stock of their risk and Northern Rock the riskiest player in town catching a serious cold.The only question now is whether the cold is going to turn into something more serious because having been a heavy smoker a cold can always go to the chest.
3 Shit happens
The events in the money markets were described as being 10 standard deviations away from the norm.In plain english this means that the financial engineers who created the business model convinced themselves and everybody involved that it was so unlikely to happen it could be ignored.How often do we hear about 100 year events-usually in the context of the weather or some other natural phenomenon.And guess what-how often do 100 year events seem to happen close to each other.Standard deviations are a traditional analysis that relies on normal distributions and based on statistical analysis.We all know about Lies ,damned lies and statistics-maybe we should ask a few more questions about who helped create the Northern Rock business model and who got paid to continuously roll out these mortgage backed securities and given the billions involved I cannot believe that there isn’t a city bonus or two that has relied on this gravy train.
4 Consumers were right to run for their money
I spoke with a number of city contacts and friends.Without exception they said they would have withdrawn money-each subject to a threshhold determined by their own wealth and the level of deposit guarantee.No one would have left more than £40,000.(why that level I do not know) .I suspect that each of these financially sophistcated individuals would be materially richer than the average depositor at Northern Rock.The authorities have therefore had a sharp lesson in consumer behaviour and need to take note.Furthermore I dispute that runs on banks are reserved for banana republics-it is only because we have a sophisticated financial system that we could create the situation in the first place and then manage it.If shit happens that sophisticated people conclude is so remote that they could create £100billion of financial instruments then your ordinary consumer is perfectly entitled to conclude that it can happen again and take his business elsewhere.Shareholders take the equity risk and expect an appropriate return-depositors get low returns and take low risk.Risk is ckearly more about perception than it is about statistical analysis.
5 The lesson everyone has forgotten to mention
The on line banking model failed-the capacity was inadequate and the depositors had no right of branch access.I am sure that this failure added to the loss in consumer confidence.No one has yet sat down and started talking about the levels of resilience and service required to maintain an on line banking service.If we live in a 24 hour on line digital world it is amazing how fast everyone demanded the right to deal through a branch.
I am sure this will rumble on but I believe at the moment the true culprits are still free to commit the crime again-assume away the risk and anything is possible until shit happens.
The consumer was right –the consumer must also be aware of on-line limitations.
Thank you to our guest blogger - he who knows from the inside!
Skype - flash in the pan, or revolutionising digital communication?
in 2005 EBay bought Skype for $2.6billion, expanding its core peer-to-peer auction business into VOIP phone services. At the time, Skype was the shining star of the digital sector, signing up customers at a rate of knots - the Facebook of 2005.
Fast forward to October 2007, and EBay writes down the value of Skype by $900 million, admitting it overvalued the group in 2005, and paying a one off and final bonus to the Skype founders of "only" $530m, rather than the maximum $1.7bn earn-out that could have been achieved.
An air of EBay gloom surrounds the announcement, "Skype has not performed as well as we would have hoped" " Skype is not where we want it to be in terms of user activity".
The key issue here - EBay overpaid based on an unrealistic multiple calculated on projections of monetising the audience into paying for Skype calls to landlines and mobiles, something which has proved difficult to achieve at the levels needed to justify the sale price - Q2 revenues of $90m at a relatively sluggish growth rate year on year aren't that impressive.
"Peer to peer connection" - the intersection between digital and traditional comms, is a fascinating place at the moment. EBay gambled that people would pay to sit at PC or laptop, and Skype mobiles and landlines to communicate, but my view is that people have way more digital choice now - instant messaging, facebook posting, SMS over internet - do I really need to actually talk to someone when I can poke, prod, prevaricate and post. And if I do need to talk, then my mobile has more free minutes and texts than I need.
EBay know they need to focus on what to do with Skype, it's an interesting strategic question for them, to prevent another write-down in value in 2008. Some serious consumer insight is needed right now.
Fast forward to October 2007, and EBay writes down the value of Skype by $900 million, admitting it overvalued the group in 2005, and paying a one off and final bonus to the Skype founders of "only" $530m, rather than the maximum $1.7bn earn-out that could have been achieved.
An air of EBay gloom surrounds the announcement, "Skype has not performed as well as we would have hoped" " Skype is not where we want it to be in terms of user activity".
The key issue here - EBay overpaid based on an unrealistic multiple calculated on projections of monetising the audience into paying for Skype calls to landlines and mobiles, something which has proved difficult to achieve at the levels needed to justify the sale price - Q2 revenues of $90m at a relatively sluggish growth rate year on year aren't that impressive.
"Peer to peer connection" - the intersection between digital and traditional comms, is a fascinating place at the moment. EBay gambled that people would pay to sit at PC or laptop, and Skype mobiles and landlines to communicate, but my view is that people have way more digital choice now - instant messaging, facebook posting, SMS over internet - do I really need to actually talk to someone when I can poke, prod, prevaricate and post. And if I do need to talk, then my mobile has more free minutes and texts than I need.
EBay know they need to focus on what to do with Skype, it's an interesting strategic question for them, to prevent another write-down in value in 2008. Some serious consumer insight is needed right now.
Monday, 1 October 2007
Support for the pro democracy protest in Burma
Look how quickly this worthy Burma protest support Group has grown on Facebook.
30/09/2007 214,000 members
29/09/2007 160,000 Members (100,000 in 1 day! That's over 1 a second!)
28/09/2007 60,000 Members
27/09/2007 30,000 Members
26/09/2007 12,000 Members
25/09/2007 6000 Members
24/09/2007 3,500 Members
Social media (with a heart and a cause) - its what the internet was invented for.
Join in
30/09/2007 214,000 members
29/09/2007 160,000 Members (100,000 in 1 day! That's over 1 a second!)
28/09/2007 60,000 Members
27/09/2007 30,000 Members
26/09/2007 12,000 Members
25/09/2007 6000 Members
24/09/2007 3,500 Members
Social media (with a heart and a cause) - its what the internet was invented for.
Join in
Radiohead - going it alone
Radiohead's decision to exclude the record company and the retailer and connect direct with its fan base is HUGE news.
Here is one of the biggest and most popular bands in the world choosing to go it alone. Choosing to exclude the music industry and the music retailers.
Radiohead have long wanted to go direct but were stopped by their record company. Now with no record company they are free to connect with their loyal global fan base over digital channels.
They are confident that the fans will click to buy. They are confident that the fans will pay to get the box set namely the 'extra' tracks, the 'extra' artwork, and the merchandise etc. If fans dont choose these 'extras' then they can download the music regardless on a 'pay whatever you choose' basis. This in itself is pretty radical and extremely exciting.
Is this the 'tipping point' that the music industry has so dreaded?
The moment when the talent recognises it doesnt need the industry or their distribution anymore and goes direct.
Here is one of the biggest and most popular bands in the world choosing to go it alone. Choosing to exclude the music industry and the music retailers.
Radiohead have long wanted to go direct but were stopped by their record company. Now with no record company they are free to connect with their loyal global fan base over digital channels.
They are confident that the fans will click to buy. They are confident that the fans will pay to get the box set namely the 'extra' tracks, the 'extra' artwork, and the merchandise etc. If fans dont choose these 'extras' then they can download the music regardless on a 'pay whatever you choose' basis. This in itself is pretty radical and extremely exciting.
Is this the 'tipping point' that the music industry has so dreaded?
The moment when the talent recognises it doesnt need the industry or their distribution anymore and goes direct.
FT.com pushing new subscription acquisition
Mediaguardian today carries the news that FT.com is to change the way it charges its web content, after a successful trial overseas. It's still offering a £99 a year subscription to see content hidden behind the "subscriber wall", but now also offering 5 free articles and then a "light" registration to see a further 30 articles a month.
Reading between the lines, it looks like the subscriber growth needed a kick-start, and a 2 stage process of subscriber acquisition through different access to content worked successfully abroad.
This comes 2 weeks after the NY Times dropped its subscription charges and moved to an advertising revenue model.
Will the FT abandon subscription in the future? They clearly state not - "(our) strategic belief is that our content is worth paying for, whatever the channel" "We are very confident that people are prepared to pay a reasonable price for FT journalism".
But with the Wall Street Journal in Rupert's hands, is this a pre-emptive reaction from FT.com before they wake up with tanks parked on the lawn? I'd suggest so - identify your premium audience by name right now, before the WSJ is properly woken up.
Reading between the lines, it looks like the subscriber growth needed a kick-start, and a 2 stage process of subscriber acquisition through different access to content worked successfully abroad.
This comes 2 weeks after the NY Times dropped its subscription charges and moved to an advertising revenue model.
Will the FT abandon subscription in the future? They clearly state not - "(our) strategic belief is that our content is worth paying for, whatever the channel" "We are very confident that people are prepared to pay a reasonable price for FT journalism".
But with the Wall Street Journal in Rupert's hands, is this a pre-emptive reaction from FT.com before they wake up with tanks parked on the lawn? I'd suggest so - identify your premium audience by name right now, before the WSJ is properly woken up.
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