Personalised Magazines? Thats interesting

Thus far, personalized news has been limited to the Internet, but Time Inc. is bringing it to the printed word with mine, a five-issue, 10-week, experimental magazine that allows readers to select five Time Warner/American Express Co. magazines that Time editors will combine into a personalized magazine with 56 possible combinations. Essentially, mine is a printed, expanded RSS feed. Magazines available to the program include Time, Sports Illustrated, Food & Wine, Real Simple, Money, In Style, Golf, and Travel + Leisure.

Ads in the mine run will all be for the Lexus 2010 RX SUV--but with personalized messages for each subscriber targeting their interests.

mine's experimental run is free, with a 36-page print edition available to the first 31,000 respondents and an online version available to 200,000 others. The online edition may not be of much interest to readers skilled in the art of Internet news surfing, but mine's printed edition brings an interesting concept to the table: the minimalization of paper waste with personalized magazines and newspapers.

Instead of subscribing to five magazines, why not just subscribe to one that has everything you want inside?

Instead of subscribing to The Times, The Sun, and your local newspaper, why not subscribe to a mash-up of all three?

The print media industry may be slowing down, but its far from dead.

What do regulators actually do?

The authorities in the states have now charged bernie madoffs accountant with fraud, opening the floodgates for the ponzi fraudsters to be identified. Apparently it's a one man band operation, as was stanfords accountant.

Surely when there are billions involved the regulators should be closer than they have been?

From Cuddly Toys to Pet Shop Boys - it's all about the brand

There's a story doing the rounds at the moment that a container of cuddly toys was washed overboard during a storm off the East Coast of England, and made its way up the Thames to West London, where it was found in the middle of the night by an enterprising young promotions executive.

Two days later, the Mail on Sunday ran a free cuddly pet toy promotion - "Get your free puppy here".

Last week the MoS returned to more familiar ground with a free CD with the Pet Shop Boys.

Sources close to the Pet Shop tell us that the cuddly toy made a small impact of 25,000 odd copies, while the Pet Shop Boys delivered a more impressive 200,000 uplift.

The morale of the story? Pets don't win prizes, but Pet Shops can still reel in the punters.

No idea what the joined-up thinking regarding the brand was, maybe there just wasn't any, and the story about the washed up container may actually be true.

NEWSPAPER ABC

The Sunday Times, was the only Sunday title to post an increase in circulation in February, up 0.66% to 1,214,254, according to figures from the Audit Bureau of Circulation out late last week.

The Sunday Times: only Sunday title to post a February circulation rise

The Sunday Times, which was the first paper to up its price to £2 in September 2006, was also up 1.27% month on month.

The News of the World, was down 7.97% year on year, to 3,019,928, but regained its title as the biggest selling paper, from its daily sister title The Sun.

The Independent on Sunday posted another substantial decline in circulation in February, down 21.28% year on year to 179,487, although it was up slightly, 0.39% month on month. The figure includes 39,295 bulks - heavily discounted copies sold to airlines, hotels and other outlets and given away to consumers.

The Observer down 7.26% year-on-year to 430,341

The Sunday Telegraph down 6.03% year-on-year to 595,029.

Daily Star Sunday performed the best among the tabloids, but was still down 1.74% year on year, to 360,143.

Sunday Mirror was down 9.07% year on year to 1,226,062.

The Mail on Sunday held up relatively well, posting a circulation decline of 0.85% year on year, to 2,184,982.

The mess that is ITV

Regular readers of the blog will have been following the ongoing saga of ITV over the last few months or so. It's been pretty obvious that the business has had major problems for a while and we've been flagging them up here on the blog with increasing frequency.

Words like "stricken", "failing" and "struggling" have accompanied the release of their 2008 results this morning. The headline loss of £2.7bn is driven mainly by goodwill write-offs, but within this profits have dropped 41% to £167m in 2008. While 600 job cuts, £65m off the programming budget and firesales of Friends Reunited (remember them?) and Freeview business SDN, may go some way to placate shareholders deprived of a dividend, it smacks of too little too late.

Revenues are down 17-20% in Q1 this year, which means ITV aren't suffering as much as Trinity Mirror (-30%), but media companies with print at their heart already have an inbuilt advantage in that their customers are in a habit of paying for the product, and this gives them a relationship and a revenue stream that can be developed - print businesses have options to lock customers in. ITV have an amorphous mass of anonymous eyeballs.

Their strategy around this problem of not knowing their customer was to develop the digital offer and "leverage the ITV brand". Today they announce that the target of deriving £150m in digital revenues by 2012 has been scrapped, due to market conditions, though this is not helped by the fact that their online revenues in 2008 limped in at £36m, miles away from where they needed to be. Sponsorship revenues came in way higher than online, at £58million, just to put some context around this. The online team lost £20m overall, which is a startling "return" on investment in an arena which is meant to be their shining hope for the future.

So, traditional revenues are falling faster than Hull City in the Premier League, while online revenues are a drop in the ocean compared to the gaping hole they are meant to be filling.

I know there are a few good people at ITV and I hope they manage their escape before the iceberg is sighted. It's out there, it's getting colder and closer, but it's most definitely on a collision course.

App turns iPhone into credit card terminal

We LOVE this

As if phones didn't already do enough, one of the latest mobile apps transforms iPhones and iPod Touches into portable charge card terminals. ProcessAway plugs into Authorize.net's payment processing platform, allowing entrepreneurs to accept credit card payments anywhere they can access the internet.

After downloading the app and (separately) setting up a merchant account with Authorize.net, clients can use ProcessAway like a traditional charge card terminal: enter the amount, input the card number, expiry date and verification code, and process. There's even a tip option for service businesses. Customers receive an email receipt for each transaction, and merchants can view transactions and process refunds on the fly. Aware that consumers might be weary of having their credit card details punched into a phone, ProcessAway stresses that's a secure application: information is never stored in the phone and the program won't connect to anything other than the terminal.

If it can gain trust and acceptance, ProcessAway could be particularly useful for those who need to process and authorise payments on-the - go. It's also useful at venues that don't have fixed terminals: antique shows, market stalls and music merchandise stands or Newspaper sellers!!.

Mirror Group Revenues slump - what to do?

Newspaper group Trinity Mirror cut its dividend last week as the group warned advertising had fallen around 30% in the first two months of this year.

The group, which owns the Daily Mirror and more than 140 regional newspapers, reported a 22% fall in operating profit in 2008 to £145.2m, down from £186.4m the previous year.

Revenues from retained businesses fell 6.5% to £871.7m, down from £932.3m.

This is shocking news. We all know revenues across board the are under intense pressure but this is unprecedented. We are in uncharted territory.

So what to do? Well here a few toplines from our 'Growth Through Consolidation' white paper..

1. Sure up the revenue base. Talk to advertisers and their buying agents find out what they are prepared to keep buying. Try to move to contracts with Agencies that maintain spends.

2. Expand the revenue base to include additional channels such as direct to consumer goods and services (insurance, insurance, insurance). Leverage the large audience base immediately by making it more available to brands/products

3. Stop looking for new readers; you have more than enough in your 'pool'. Devote your energies to initiatives that get them to buy you more often. Move heaven and earth to get readers on a 'contract'. This will increase frequency of purchase and reward loyalty. This may look like a subscription scheme but should act like a loyalty one.

4. Sub contract (if possible) certain expensive elements of the paper. Supplements etc

5. Work with news agents to improve availability efficiency (millions could be saved here)

6. Think twice about TV advertising (its expensive)...talk to your audience more directly

7. Recognise that economic times are tough and readers are hurting - opportunity to bring back big value 'token collect' promotions that reward readers (with real value) for buying the paper

8. On the product side - picking up again on the dire state of the economy do more to support and guide your readership. Entertain them yes. Inform them yes. But become their friend in these troubles times. You cant do enough in this area.

I worry that the web is seen as the way out of this one but as we are seeing digital advertising (which is flat) is not strong enough (never was) to replace lost print ad revenues.

Newspaper have got to think differently. Use the brand and critically their trusted customer relations to drive up revenues.

How much is £325 billion?

RBS has just received Government backed guarantees on £325 billion of its toxic assets.

Big number. To put it into some sort of context, that's just over £50 for every single person on the planet.

Wonder how many of the world's population survive on less than £50 a month. A high proportion I'd wager.

Well done RBS, that sort of achievement deserves reward and recognition. Take a bow Sir Fred, you must be very proud. You can contemplate the wisdom of your reign at your leisure, while you work out how to eke a living out of your £650,000 annual pension.

Fred Goodwin to receive £650,000 for life

Robert Peston is running with this headline on his blog. He quotes 'authoritative sources' so who are we to doubt it

I hope Robert is wrong with this one. Its outrageous, if true, that Sir Fred is already drawing down an annual pension of £650,00o and for life. 

This is a guy that has destroyed not only RBS shareholder value, but value of an entire sector and has contributed to destroying capitalism as we know it.  oh and lets remember its you and i as taxpayers who are in the curious position as part owners of RBS that ultimately are paying this pension. 

All I can say is that all the riches in the world wont ease his conscious or repair his shattered reputation. But maybe it would pay for an identity change and a new anonymous life.

Madness

ITV to merge with Channel 4 and Channel 5?

In any other market conditions this thought would be absurd but in todays market all things are possible....

As one of a series 'radical ideas' ITV has drawn up a plan for a three-way merger with Channel 4 and Channel Five. Yes they have

Its not so mad as it would bring together the UK's three main advertiser-funded commercial broadcasters and it might be the only to safeguard all three businesses in the face of the most challenging market conditions ever.

Look im sure the Regulators would have massive concerns (although they seemed to have turned a blind eye to anti competitive bank mergers so why stop this?) and im sure Sky and BBC will lobby furiously against it but its just this kind of 'radical' thinking that the media sector needs right now.

In fact the newspaper industry could learn from this. As the old saying 'in stormy weather we cling together'. Suddently old enemies become best friends.

More news on this as it breaks

And another one.........

Newspapers are failing fast in the US

The Philadelphia Inquirer has been placed into Chapter 11 filing. The paper will be joined in bankruptcy protection by the Philadelphia Daily News and the website philly.com.

Same comment as in previous post regarding The Journal lets hope that Chapter 11 (which allows owners to restructure debts) will give these guys the chance to make the necessary game saving decisions and emerge stronger

Another Newspaper casualty in US

The Journal Register Company, filed for Chapter 11 protection on Saturday.

The Journal Register owns 20 daily and 159 other newspapers, serving parts of Philadelphia, Michigan, Connecticut, the Cleveland area and New York. It has about 3,500 employees.

We know The Journal well as its the publisher of excellent The New Haven Register in Connecticut.

Lets hope these guys can take the difficult decisions and emerge stronger from chapter 11.

Time for newspapers to grasp the e-reader thing

Those of you that have followed our scribbles in this blog over the months will be aware that we have been scratching our heads why it is newspapers haven't grasped the electronic reader (soon to be epaper) thing. We've consistently said that it makes huge sense, saves money, makes money, strengthens relationships, saves the planet and so on

Well great minds think alike... please click here for recent piece in the excellent Fast Forward magazine on the subject. Please do read it and if you like it go to The Economist who wrote something very similar a couple of weeks back...

Maybe newspaper publishers will listen to the folks at Fast Forward....hope so as we believe e-readers are part of the 'fight back' strategy for newspapers.

Bid for Metro Int

Markets were alerted today that Metro Int had received a unsolicited bid for the Company. Share bounce 60%.

Cant think who the bidder could possibly be (maybe former CEO Pelle Tornberg?) but bear in mind that the company is valued at £30m today (and thats after todays share price rise). Set that against the value of the business when we were there in 2005 when the company was worth £900m (frothy eh)its a bit of a bargain.

I would absolutely buy it for £30m as i think its got huge unrecognised value. 20m + daily readers all aged somewhere between 18 - 45. Sweet. Id ask Per Michael Jensen to stay on and run it as he is making all the right moves and we would exploit those reader relationships to bits.

I am told the Directors turned down a bid for £500m in 2007 so they are unlikely to agree something in the 30m range or are they?!!

Murdoch loses deputy

President of News Corp Peter Chernin set to leave the Company when his contract expires end of June 09. Well well. This had been rumored for some time but few insiders thought Peter would actually leave.

He has been Murdoch deputy for 12 years and is almost universally applauded for the job he has done.

I'm sure he has lots of lucrative things to get on with including a contracted production deal with Fox/20th Century Fox so the very best of luck to him.

More pressingly is his departure comes at a sticky (sorry tricky) moment for Murdoch. News stock is down 70% from 52 week high and the News Corp businesses are way too over exposed to advertising. Murdoch needs all the help and support he can get right now and this isnt a good time to be losing his deputy; the man that dealt with Hollywood and Wall St.

Supposedly he isnt going to be replaced Mr Murdoch will take over his direct reports (not bad for a 77 year old)

i suppose this clears up one important thing - succession. With Peter out the debate about manager versus family goes away and James Murdoch has a straight shot to succeed his dad when the time is right.

Coup for Evening Standard

Congratulations to the new owners of the Evening Standard on their appointment of Sarah Sands as deputy editor.

This is a cracking hire and a real coup for Georgie Greig, the Editor.

We know Sarah well and she is a very, very good journalist. Her editorial skills are of great benefit but so are her business development skills. I dont know anyone better in the business at inderstanding what sells newspaper and she is going to prove invaluable to the ES as it trys (along with the rest of the newspaper industry) to figure out new models for success.

Well done

Possibly the most unbelievable thing you have ever heard

News breaks today that Bernie Madoff did not buy so much as one share on behalf of his clients in 13 years!

How on earth did this remain undetected for so long?

The power of an image

http://www.guardian.co.uk/artanddesign/gallery/2009/feb/13/photography1?picture=343222726

Lest we forget how powerful an image can be, the World Press Photo Awards are well worth having a look at. Some stunning shots.

Sign of the times

Google acquires the buildings and premises of a mill site from a paper, packaging and forest products company that caters to the print industry.

Finland-based paper group Stora Enso has announced that Google is buying the buildings and most of the Summa Mill site, where production of paper was ceased in January 2008, for approximately €40 million ($51.7 million).

ITV freezes high-earner salaries - prudent or superficial?

ITV continues to deal with the impact of the unprecedented cash crunch driven by advertising revenues plunging steeply, announcing a salary freeze for all employees earning over £60k.

On the plus side, it shows that the management team are not afraid to take tough decisions, making an example of the 10% who are classified as "high earners" and saving a quantifiable and significant sum of money.

On the negative side, there is always a risk in de-motivating the very people who should be the talent to drive the business to success in these tough times, where the commercial dynamic has to be changed to enable ITV to survive.

There is also a view that this actually isn't going far enough. With KPMG and other large professional services businesses asking staff to work a 4 day rather than 5 day week, or take 3 month sabbaticals on 30% of pay, there is a view that ITV could have gone further to secure its own future.

On the back of other recent news at ITV, it can't be a positive place to be right now. It's not quite in the same commercial bracket as the Independent yet, but the next 6 months will be critical to its survival.

Coffee time - loyal, addicted and rewarded?

Coffee. One of the most profitable products in the world, sold by iconic brands to a legion of addicts prepared to spend a premium for their daily hit in thousands of outlets across the UK.

Sat in Market Evolution Towers, we have two Starbucks, two Prets, a Costa and a Coffee Republic within a 2 minute walk, so we're not short of choice. We're regular buyers, spending money daily.

Given how passionate we are about loyalty and recognising and rewarding valuable customers, I've now dipped my toe into the plastic card-based coffee loyalty schemes on offer. A real live test of how two major brands treat me as a regular, engaged and recognised customer.

My Pret card has been loaded online and awaits its first outing. My Starbucks card has been loaded in-store.

I have no idea what benefits are on offer. I've had a free coffee this morning from Starbucks for loading the card for the first time, but have only been promised "surprises" in future. Pret is an unknown ballgame, just waiting to reward my business over the next few months.

I'll keep you posted on the relative CRM strategies and loyalty rewards, and whether this will change my behaviour and spending patterns. Are they running good schemes, time will tell

Nutshell

We've been away from the blog for the last couple of days (resting? not in this market) and I thought the best way back was a single post that covers a number of the notable events from the last few days. so where to start?

• News International 'shed' 65 jobs ('efficiency drive')?

• DMGT ad revenues plummet in January (by 20+% - ouch!)

• Bankers up in front of the beak say their sorries (again and again and again)?

• Obama gets his (watered down) bail out package ratified (finally)?

• Amazon launch Kindle 2 (but we wont see it here in the UK for a long while)

• Sirius XM Satellite Radio is filing for bankruptcy (making Oprah, Martha and Howard Stern homeless!)

What else has caught our eye during our post free days?

• Ticketmaster and LiveNation merge (as predicted here) to massive whinging from music industry, artists and politicians

• Georgie Greig confirmed as Evening Standard editor (leaping from the dentists surgery to tube train!) and the industry asks is he up to it? Immediate gossip that ES is to go free.
  

• Mr Madoff only madoff with $35bn (not $50bn) and pleads guilty to civil charge of running a 'ponzi' scheme. He continues to plead not guilty to same charge in the separate legal case!

• Britain continues to fall into a deeper and most severe economic down turn. This seems to surprise the Cabinet but comes as absolutely no surprise to those who have lost their jobs.

• Bank of England issues a statement saying things will begin to get better in early 2010.
  

News Corp posts headline quarterly loss of £4.4bn

News Corp has posted a £4.4bn loss for the three months to 31 December 2008 (compared with a profit of $832m a year earlier). Overall revenues, across BSkyB, 20th Century Fox, the New York Post and Sun newspapers, HarperCollins and MySpace were down 8.4%.

Owner Rupert Murdoch said the economic downturn was "more severe" than first thought, and warned of likely job cuts. "We are implementing rigorous cost-cutting across all operations and reducing head count where appropriate," said Mr Murdoch.

The quarterly loss was New Corp's first in more than three years, and it now predicts a 30% fall in operating profits for its fiscal year to the end of June.

"Our results for the quarter are a direct reflection of the grim economic climate," added Mr Murdoch.

Whatever your feelings for the legendary KRM, his nose for business has kept NewsCorp at the top of its game (barring some scary moments in the last recession) for 40 years. If NewsCorp is being hit this badly, despite a broader media portfolio than its competitors, then there must be some very stressed senior media executives out there right now in smaller and less diverse media businesses.

Now's the time to bunker down and focus on retaining your loyal and most valuable customers - "recognise and reward" is the new mantra for business in 2009

ITV score massive own goal

Those of you who know us well will have encountered our passion for the beautiful game. Picture the scene - a massive Mersyside derby FA Cup replay, extra time drawing to a close and penalties looming large, tension building by the second and the full drama of an explosive last gasp winner scored by an 18 year old substitute unfolding before your very eyes. You couldn't write a better script to engage millions of passionate football fans in the thrills and spills of the FA Cup.

Only ITV cut to an ad break around a lot of the country, and missed the goal. Instead of Gosling's quick feet and curled finish, fans were watching ads for TicTacs and Volkswagens.

That's inept to say the least, and incompetent at best. ITV's FA Cup coverage has been poor across the board in comparison with the BBC and Sky's standard football output, but this plumbs new depths. Michael Grade has apologised to viewers and ordered an internal enquiry into the technical fault, but the stable is empty and the horse is long gone.

Is this another symptom of the major problems hitting ITV? (See our earlier post on Sky vs ITV) Or just an unfortunate co-incidence? Time will tell, but as cracks start to appear in a business, you have to question how safe the foundations really are.

Say bye bye to the private jet(s)

WASHINGTON - Responding to concerns about Wall Street excesses, President Barack Obama on Wednesday introduced rules limiting to $500,000 compensation paid to executives at financial institutions receiving "exceptional assistance" from the government. Any additional compensation would be made in restricted stock that won't vest until taxpayers are repaid, Obama said. Banks getting help as part of the bailout program would face new prohibitions on "golden parachutes." The rules also give shareholders of banks receiving capital infusions from the government a non-binding vote on executive compensation. Financial institutions participating in the bank bailout package will face more stringent transparency rules on expenses such as aviation services, holiday parties and office renovations.
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We say: Well, well about time. We wonder whether our own leadership will impose similar 'rules' on UK bankers.

Should do and it would certainly be politically popular to do so but it might just harm chances of securing that lucrative post cabinet private sector job!

Good recessionary link-up

Live Nation and Ticketmaster may merge: WSJ

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Ticketmaster Entertainment Inc. and Live Nation Inc. are considering a merger in a deal that would consolidate two of the most powerful forces in the music industry, according to a media report late Tuesday.

The online edition of The Wall Street Journal, citing unnamed sources, reported that the new, combined company would be called Live Nation Ticketmaster, and would bring together the world's largest concert promoter with the world's dominant "ticketing and artist-management" company.

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Strikes us that this is exactly the kind of deal that should get done in recessionary times. Strategically sound and Im sure commercially a must-do.

Weve been following the rise of Live Nation here at Market Evolution and have always liked their 360 degree model but it was clear that they had over stretched and some kind of merger was on the cards as the credit crunched. Its also quite interesting to note that Live Nation stopped using Ticketmaster for its ticketing favouring their own yet to be built system. We heard that the system build was extremely delayed and full of problems - another reason why this merger makes sense?

Our thanks to Steven Meisel for the Madonna pic.

The pulling power of TV

Super Bowl XLIII draws average 95.4 million viewers.

BIG reminder of the power of TV.

When they get it right and when there is something worth watching we will watch and in large numbers.

Positive Mental Attitude:

Recessionary times are good for TV companies as we stay in and watch more TV.

Let's get out and talk to brands about their communications needs.

Let's link up and collaborate.

Let's package advertising across media.

This recession shouldn't beat us, it should make us stronger!

Associated Newspapers - making the necessary plays

Our congratulations to our friend Roland Agambar who leaves The Sun and News of The World and joins Associated Newspapers as CMO.

Good appointment of a really good guy into a new and significant role.

Beginning to see visible signs that Associated are prepared to take the decisions, make the changes, and ramp up the activities required to 'survive & thrive' in this challenging environment.

Must be a sigh of relief at MGN where Roland as Marketing Director of The Sun and News of the World inflicted numerous painful wounds....

Things must be bad.....

More cuts at Condé Nast: The company is shutting shopping/interior design magazine Domino, it announced today.

Wow. Conde Nast have the deepest pockets and much more patience/resilience than most other publishers so things must really be bad out there!

Shame it was a nice magazine but interiors and shopping are a little out of step with the new reality. Maybe a relaunch as Austerity - Live Life For Less (money off, promos, coupons etc)

Its getting really cold out there. Make sure you are bundled up!

Knowing your customer equals greater profitability - the ITV and Sky case-study

Two of the UK's media giants, ITV and Sky, are a perfect example of how knowing your customer and tying them into a relationship can generate different levels of revenue in this sector.

ITV - a traditional commercial broadcaster reliant on advertising revenues, with a set ad inventory to offer on a range of free to air channels, with a struggling digital offer bolted on as an afterthought.

Sky - a maturing satellite broadcaster with a subscription and advertising model, run with the stated intention of continued subscription growth, regardless of the current economic decline.

ITV's revenues in 2008 were about £2bn, compared with Sky's almost £5bn. Profitability at ITV in 2008 about £120m, while Sky made over £600m.

Now ITV may keep bleating about the handcuffs of their statutory obligation to provide local content, but this is a diversion away from the real issues hitting their business. ITV is a programme-led business rather than a strong brand, with an audience it can measure but not recognise or reward. Digital platforms should enable it to start identifying loyal customers (and advertiser desired customers) and engaging them in dialogue leading to recognising and rewarding their behaviour. It's pretty obvious given their commercial performance (and share price) that they are a long way from doing this. The cancellation of Hearbeat and the Royal, and the slashing of The Bill is symptomatic of the cuts needed to survive in these tough economic conditions.

A question well worth asking, which hasn't really been discussed before, is whether ITV could actually be a very high profile media casualty of the recession. It has a massive reliance on advertiser revenue, with an audience who are increasingly less interested and engaged, and a limited number of alternative revenue streams. It has no divine right to survive, and with the proliferation of alternative channels, you have to ask what would be missed? Coronation Street - definitely, but it's a programme that people would follow to another broadcaster. FA Cup football coverage - definitely not - it's reminiscent of Matthew Lorenzo's mutilation of World Cup 94 and they should be ashamed of themselves.

Back to Sky. Subscription contracts lock in customers, which while stating the obvious, is important to note. You can reward customers when you know who they are and what they are doing. If they are unhappy, and you ask them, you can address the issues. If they do leave, you know who they are, so you can try and win them back. And above all, if the content you are providing is exclusive and premium, you should reduce your churn. It also gives you a defined audience to market new products, services and technology to - Sky+ being a great example of a major technological innovation that has altered the dynamics behind subscription retention.

Will Sky suffer in the recession? Potentially yes, but not to the same degree as its rivals. Potentially it looms large to mop up even more content as its less well off, and less well run commercial rivals have limited cash to bid for, or develop new content.

Knowing your customers, recognising and rewarding their behaviour, and understanding what makes people and keeps people loyal, must be at the heart of a successful business. Apologies if we're sounding like a broken record here, but the time is now, he who hesitates loses in 2009.

Newspapers - how to survive and thrive in 2009

There are 3 things that UK newspapers must do to ensure they survive and thrive in 2009

1. subscription - get your purchasers on a contract, onto a database and into a relationship

2. customer relationship management - recognize and reward purchase loyalty

3. monetize reader relationship with 'direct to customer' sales of goods and services

Its that simple ;-)

If there is anyone out there in Newspapers who would like to chat about how to execute these 3 critical strategies please let us know. We are here to help.

Bankers!

Ive been giggling ever since that story pre xmas that investment bankers were this years panto badies. But hey this is serious stuff. These are the guys that set the worlds economy alight and seem to have very little remorse.

Does seem as the media is now moving toward specific finger pointing and the blame game. The Sunday Times displayed prominent bankers (and Gordon Brown) as criminal mugshots in yesterdays paper (The Bosses that broke Britain). The FT recently carried an op-ed openly attacking individuals for their part in the woes of the world economy.

News today that John Thain (ex Merrill Lynch, now ex BofA and pictured above) will repay the $1.2m cost of renovating his office (items bought included $87,000 for rugs, $68,000 for a 19th century credenza and $35,115 for a "commode on legs") . Good of him, eh.

John Thain, of course, is the guy that sold ML to BofA during the time of the collapse of Lehman brothers and promptly sanctioned $4bn of bonuses to ML staff. This would have been a huge award even in profitable years but given Merrills lost $40bn its extraordinary (and we suggest alittle naughty!). Heres the sequence of events (FT)

● Sept 13-15 2008: John Thain agrees deal to sell Merrill to Bank of America

● Dec 8: Merrill board approves $4bn in bonuses to employees

● Dec 17: BofA’s Ken Lewis asks federal government for $20bn infusion

● Dec 29: Merrill pays the cash portion of its bonuses; remainder paid out in BofA stock on Jan 2

● Jan 16: BofA discloses $2.4bn fourth-quarter loss – dwarfed by a pre-merger loss of $15.3bn by Merrill

● Jan 22: Merrill’s accelerated bonus payments revealed by the Financial Times. Lewis dismisses Thain

In other news Sir Fred Goodwin, the former chief executive of the Royal Bank of Scotland, has been forced to step down as head of the Prince of Wales’s personal charity. Ouch. Whats next for the 'the worlds worst banker'? His title?

A blast from the past - a moment in history

Heres Steve Jobs, the worlds greatest living entrepreneur, the man who has radically transformed computing, music and now telecoms showing the world the Apple Mac for the first time. Its 1984 and there are 3,000 people in the audience.



Its worth watching through to the end just to see how completely crazy the crowd goes.

We wish Steve Jobs a speedy recovery and return to his business

The power of a good press execution

This caught my eye as great press ad placement, down under.

The power of good press advertising has been lost somewhat in these digital days, but when it's done well, it can still have great impact.

Well done, both to the brand owner, and the media owner, for having a sense of humour.

What next for the Standard, and for London?

Alexander Lebedev's purchase of the Evening Standard from DMGT is a key development in the newspaper sector on a number of levels.

Firstly, by selling the loss making ES, DMGT can now concentrate on the loss making London Lite, free of the shackles of cannibalising advertising revenues(remember them?)from its paid for sister title. Though by keeping a stake in the Standard, it does look a bit like DMGT are hedging their bets. If London Lite can now start to make some headway in this difficult advertising market against The Londonpaper and also the ES, the sale of the Standard could be a great deal for the wider group. However, the scale of the challenge must not be underestimated in today's recessionary times, this should be seen as a 3 year play. It will be interesting to see how News International react now to the new situation in their crusade to move the Londonpaper towards break-even.

Secondly, Lebedev is promising to invest millions into the Standard as his "social mission" to make it a success. Given how many millions DMGT has "invested" over the last 5 years, will the Russian be able to turn round the financial performance? It's a tough ask, but if he brings in the right senior team to run the paper free from any Group constraints, and invests in the right strategic initiatives (see numerous posts on this blog) you have to believe that he could give it a good go. The worst thing that could happen is for him to tinker around the edges as that'll be reminiscent of the band playing on after the iceberg had been struck.

Thirdly, discussions about whether a former KGB spy is a "fit and proper person" to run an august British media institution raises a smile, particularly as it's Peter Mandleson who will set any inquiry into motion. While we've moved on from the Maxwell and Conrad Black standards of "fit and proper", you've got to assume that if the Standard's news agenda is set to become a London-based Russian oligarchial mouthpiece, the public will vote with their feet and give the Standard a miss.

Congratulations America

Today marks the day when America rediscovered itself. With the inauguration of Barack Obama as the 44th President America enters a new era, following a fresh course in these troubled times. Good luck to soft power and to a path of practicalities not ideologies.

Well done to the people of America for making this historic choice and good luck to the new President and the men and women of his Administration

What's the point of WAN?

News from MediaGuardian that the World Association of Newspapers (WAN) has cancelled its annual congress and forum, the largest annual international gathering of newspaper executives and editors, which should have taken place in India in March this year, due to the effects of the global economic downturn.

Bertrand Pecquerie, World Editors Forum director said:

"Our belief is that newspaper companies will, by necessity, learn to live with the crisis over the year and will be more willing to invest again in conferences and travel by the end of 2009. The exact new schedule will be confirmed shortly. We need your suggestions in this difficult period."

"It is just a management decision based on facts. A newspaper association is at the end of the chain of the newspaper industry: when managers and editors cut costs and ask not to travel, evidently conferences and seminars are the first to be threatened."

Traditionally, the meeting attracts at least 1,500 delegates. Today the number of confirmed delegates for the March conference in India stood at 227.

Two things stand out from this news.

Firstly, that the Association is a busted flush. In times of trouble and challenge, it should be strong and should be leading its members, communicating best practice, innovation and efficiencies from one publishing group to another, globally. It is best placed to do this job, and if it can't fulfil this role it does beg the question of what it can deliver at precisely the time when the vast majority of its members need it most.

Secondly, its obvious that the industry doesn't value the Association highly enough to continue with funding attendance at the Annual events, presumably because the return on the investment to the member is negligible at best.

This is sadly symptomatic of an industry generally struggling to cope with the now, let alone the future. We know there are forward thinking newspaper and media executives out there, as we work with them, but is the decline in the sector overall just down to the consumers choosing not to buy newspapers as often as they used to? Of course not, it's more to do with media and newspaper businesses not generating content and alternative routes to market that they can generate profitable revenues from.

Mecom - whoops

The news came in yesterday that mecom finance director and all its five independent directors had resigned en masse

Thats en mass alright. To lose your finance director in the midst of a financial crisis is, i suppose, just about acceptable if the independent directors remain (to ensure fair play) and conversely its probably ok to lose your independent directors with you finance director in place. But all together en masse. Whoops. By the way Monty (David Montgomery) remains as CEO but he has been forced to relinquish the Chairmanship.

Just what went one is unclear but it must have been one helluva power play. We know the (ex) finance director John Allwood. Having worked closely with him at the Telegraph and at mecom we can vouch for John. John is good guy, a straight guy, practical and sensible. Just the kind of guy you need in a crisis. Well John is no more and that's bad for business.

Its hard to blame the credit crunch for this one. This is old fashoined boardroom antics. Shame

09 - time for Positive Mental Attitude (PMA)

This my first post of 2009 and I cant work out quite how the year is going to play out for us in the media world.

On the surface its looking pretty dire in media land. '08 was horrible across the board and the prospects for this year aren't too rosy.

But lets be positive as a positive mental attitude is the key to turning the economic tide.

My sense is the dire economic environment actually presents us with a unique opportunity. Hard to see right now as we face worsening conditions, job losses etc but please read on.....

It gives us permission to execute all those necessary changes and improvements that companies on our beat have known they would have to make but have been able to defer because conditions were so benign. Its now a no choice, no defer situation. These changes are now about survival not enhancement!

Good news is that those brands that make the necessary changes will emerge from this economic train wreck and will do very well indeed.

Hold on to the following thoughts

you have a trusted brand
you have addressable audience
you have reputation
you have skilled workforce
you have a quality product

This give you durability, opportunity and a fighting chance.

But you have to recognise your assets and be willing to put them to work more effectively, more relevantly and more creatively.

In some ways the economic climate has precipitated the defining moment for media companies. We've long known that digital would eventually change everything for ever and most were happy wait and watch (head in sand). No longer. We have no choice but to embrace change, explore alternative models, lower our cost basis and move on. We cannot vacillate any longer.

I for one think this is good news. Ours is a sector that has stagnated. Its been starved of fresh new ideas and what innovation we have seen has been dreamt up else and co-opted by us as band aid.

Its time for our own ideas and innovations based on a strongly held belief that servicing the customer is a really winning strategy.

Where for example is electronic paper or if not paper electronic readers for newspapers and magazines? How long do we have to wait for goodness sake? Its such a great idea. Reduces costs (no more trees, printing presses, distribution vehicles and agents fees etc), unleashes the digital brand and gives the consumer bang up to date quality content where and where he wants it.

In the age of the iphone and the Amazon Kindle (which is actually quite good) surely an electronic reader model is feasible. Quick back of an envelope calculation tells me that that it can work economically. The case is partic strong against subscribers and home delivery customers. Now its clear that not all these types of customers will want to transition from paper to electronic but some will and that trickle will turn into a torrent.

Is this the year that media cos are forced by economic conditions to make those tough decisions and investigate new models for revenue generation and hopefully work on programmes to recognise and reward customers (and get them to spend more).

Lets hope so

HAPPY NEW YEAR

Virgin Atlantic makes a good ad

There's some decent enough advertising around, but you can count the number of great ads you see in a year on one hand.

Virgin Atlantic's 25th anniversary ad is one of them, distinctive, well shot and memorable. It's an execution from a confident brand that really works.

I like it. First old-school great ad of the year.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/video/2009/jan/05/virgin-atlantic-ad

New Year, new price

Monday January 5th, and the snowy start back after the festive break.

The first indication in 2009 of the hardening economic climate sees the weekday Times increase its coverprice from 80p to 90p, expressly stating in Saturday's paper that this is due to newsprint prices and the current economic climate.

Not surprising in itself, but the 80p coverprice had only come into effect in September 2008, which suggests the need to drive increased news-stand revenues has become increasingly pressing over the last few weeks. It also consigns the price wars of the 1990s to the history books, unlikely ever to be repeated in this sector.

The rest of the quality market will probably follow over the next few days, so our first prediction of 2009 is that all of the quality titles will have a £1 price point by the spring for their Monday-Friday editions.

Madness

Many papers around the world are taking radical steps to cut costs and improve efficiencies. Times are extremely tough and cuts are unavoidable but the industry has to be careful where it cuts and not cut a main artery.

Cutting distribution is sensible but now two high-selling Detroit newspapers have taken it a step further - by eliminating home delivery on four days of the week.

This is madness. This would be like the UK industry cutting subscribers but worse as home delivery folks pay full price. Yes they do.

Home delivery customers are the absolute lifeblood of US newspaper industry. These folks are the loyalists. They buy everday. They read everyday. Dont punish them. Reward them.

Don't take them for granted and absolutely don't expect them to go from paper to digital. They won't.

For all those UK Newspaper managers who are considering the full range of cuts learn from this and please leave the subscriber and home delivered customer alone. Broaden the relationship with them don't end it. Open up new revenue streams through transactions.

be careful where you cut

Radio bags another senior management figure from newspapers

Stuart Mays has quit Associated Newspapers where he was head of strategy to join his former Associated colleague Stephen Miron at Global Radio. Miron is the former Mail on Sunday managing director who was appointed Global's chief executive of radio in August.

Mays will work across all commercial aspects of Global Radio, taking up his new role on 5 January.

This is interesting on 2 levels:

Firstly, Mays is the second senior manager to leave Associated recently (Miron being the first). This presents a challenge to remaining management who have been used to a uniquely stable top table. We are seeing the most long standing management team in newspapers come unstitched right when experience and stability are most necessary.

Secondly, we have another senior newspaper man leaving for radio - surely out of the frying pan into the fire but from what we hear Global pay very well so hey who cares!

Mr Madoff - rounds off a very bad year

Ok - we've had collapsed banks, big bailouts, melt down on wall street but now we have (alleged) fraud and on a massive scale.

A $50bn scale!

''Mr Madoff told senior employees, including his sons, that his investment management firm had lost $50bn over a number of years, according to court documents. Prosecutors alleged that he said his operations were “just one big lie” and “basically a giant Ponzi scheme” – where investment managers pay old investors with money raised from new investors.''

Whats absolutely incredible about all this is not so much the size of the fraud but the extent of it.

Mr Madoff conned a huge number of very very experienced people, institutions and authorities big time.

HSBC, BNP Paribas, Nicola Horlick (!) Grupo Santandar. RBS (£400m exposure); Man Group ($360m exposure).

To name but a few.

More astonishingly he also conned the authorities over many many years (which is far more worrying)

How could this happen?

Who knows but there must be lots of egg on alot of important faces this morning. And more shame and embarrassment for the financial sector.

I have one word of explaination: GREED

The investors are not victims they are mugs! Didnt it seem odd to them that Madoff's fund continued to post stellar returns even in these really challenging times?

To perform this well over so many years he was either a genius or a crook and surprise surprise ............!

Newsweek - making right (but painful) moves

The rumors appear to be true: Newsweek will amputate up to one million copies from its 2.6 million circulation, according to Wall Street Journal sources.

This sounds sensible.

All 'dead tree' publications have to slim down. They have work harder on rewarding their loyal subscribers rather than casual purchasers. And rely more on digital channels.

Clearly a big, big change for the 73 year old magazine and a painful one, but its a strong and established brand and I for one think its future is bright

City AM expansion on hold - Thank God

Expansion outside London of free business daily City A.M. is put on hold until the economy “gets back to something like normal” according to chief executive Jens Torpe in Press Gazette.

Our old friend Lawson Muncaster (City AM, Managing Director) announced the intended expansion at a Conference in early October 08. We thought at the time that it was an unlikely to happen and we felt that the claim was more of a Conference headline that a serious aim.

Lets keep in mind that the economy was hardly 'normal' in October when the announcement was made.

Jens and Lawson are serious players. They have the knowledge and talent to weather the storm and the absolute last thing they need to do right now is expand.

'Next Christmas the iPod will be kaput' - the 10 worst technology predictions

1. BRITAIN DOESN'T NEED TELEPHONES

Made in 1878 by Sir William Preece, chief engineer at the Post Office.

'The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys,' he said.

2. X-RAYS ARE A HOAX

Lord Kevlin, President of the Royal Society was clearly unconvinced when he made his comments in 1883.

3. THERE WILL NEVER BE A BIGGER PLANE (AND IT ONLY HELD TEN PEOPLE)

The maiden flight of the Boeing 247 took place in 1933.

Speaking after the happy event, an engineer reportedly said: 'There will never be a bigger plane built.'

The world's biggest plane is currently the Airbus A380 can carry up to 853 people.

4. TV WON'T LAST

Darryl Zanuck, 20th Century Fox movie mogul was responsible for this clanger back in 1946.

He claimed the technology had a short shelf life because people will 'soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night.'

5 HOMES WILL BE CLEANED WITH NUCLEAR HOOVERS

Back in the 1950s, Alex Lewyt, president of the Lewyt Corp vacuum company, claimed it was only a matter of time before nuclear power was used in the home.

'Nuclear-powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality within ten years,' he said.

6. LETTERS WILL BE DELIVERED BY ROCKET

'We stand on the threshold of rocket mail,' said U.S. postmaster general Arthur Summerfield in 1959.

7. COMPUTERS AREN'T FOR HOME USE

In 1977, Ken Olsen, the president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp (DEC) claimed there was no reason for anyone to want a personal computer.

8. YOU'LL ONLY EVER NEED 640KB OF MEMORY

Bill Gates's first entry into the chart with his 1981 claim that no personal computer would ever need huge amounts of capacity.

He has since denied making the statement,,,

9. WE'LL KILL SPAM IN TWO YEARS

... though there's no doubt he said this one.

Speaking at the 2004 World Economic Forum he claimed a solution was in sight.

10. THE iPOD WILL BE KAPUT BY NEXT CHRISTMAS

And rounding off the technology hall of shame is Sir Alan Sugar.

He made his claim in 2005, telling an interviewer: 'Next Christmas the iPod will be dead, finished, gone, kaput.'

T3 technology magazine

Shrinking value of media companies

Trinity Mirror, Johnston Press and Mecom will fall out of the FTSE 250 today in a sign of the rapidly diminishing value of media companies.

The three newspaper groups have seen their shares hammered in recent months as they fall victim to the worsening advertising slowdown and fears about the long-term prospects of print media.

Harnessing the brand-reader relationship to full effect

We are very focused here on the power of community, harnessing the brand-customer relationship in a dynamic and interactive way - it is the future, it's started already and businesses that embrace this wholeheartedly will undoubtedly create a competitive advantage in their markets.

Bild, the largest selling newspaper in Europe (think The Sun in German but with a bit more mid-market aspiration) has announced a deal with Lidl to sell pocket-sized cameras to shoot still and video pictures for £60. While this sounds quite a high price in today's high street market, the vision of the deal is to be applauded. If Bild can motivate its audience to buy the cameras and then use them to send content to the newspaper, it will exponentially grow its reach and influence.

While there are obvious issues of quality preservation that surround the use of any content, whether professional or amateur, this shouldn't distract from the potential here. Strengthening the relationship between brand and customer, on as many platforms as possible, has to be a positive move, and in any declining market holding onto your most loyal customers has to be the main focus.

Innovation should be applauded, it will be interesting to see how this develops over the next 12 months, and whether UK newspaper brands will adopt something similar.

Piers Morgan's view of the future of newspapers

Piers Morgan, former editor of the News of the World and the Daily Mirror, and now a successful TV-personality said to the British Journalism Review that all newspaper should go free in the future.

“I think within 10 years every Fleet Street paper will be free” Morgan added. (Press Gazette).

Well, Piers certainly knows his newspapers and his opinion should be listened to.

That said free isnt a catch all/ 'get out of jail' card for all. The model has its place for sure but newspapers need to crack digital above all else.

We do see a model somewhere down the line where frees could simply be marketing for digital versions. In this scenario the commercial model is part advertising but mostly audience explotiation (commercial explitation that is!). All the marketers would surely say that this is a very expensive marketing channel. Indeed it is, but nothing works harder for keeping your audience together and engaged than being able to touch and feel your product every day.

That said surely where we are going (and fast) is towards an electronic version of the printed paper or epaper as its called. Readers get the all important portability of todays printed paper with all the 'always on' advantages of digital. can this piece of kit be free. Yes it can for subscribers. Not it cant for casuals.

The future of newspapers is a fascinating debate; one that will run and run

Indie

Religion goes digital

A quick thought of the day to end the working week on.

Parishioners in Surrey will have a church sermon delivered directly to their email inboxes as it is given by an Anglican vicar.

The words spoken by the Rev John Kronenberg, vicar of Hinchley Wood, will be converted into text and sent to 100 church members' computers using SpinVox software. Sunday's sermon is being billed as a world first by St Christopher's Church.

It's good to see such broad acceptance of digital technology throughout society, and I am so hoping it will also be made available soon as a Godcast.

Independent - it was, but it's not now....

On the blog a couple of weeks ago (Nov 18th) I commented that the latest Slimfast round of redundancies at the Indy would lead to them being able to save cost by moving to smaller offices.

A prescient, and almost correct prediction, with news today that the Indy will be leaving Docklands to share Associated Newspaper's plush Kensington offices, so a smaller space in a much larger newspaper HQ.

In theory, this will allow them to share back office costs.

In practice, am I alone in thinking about Little Red Riding Hood? Poor innocent little Independent cosying up to the wolfish Daily Mail, all teeth, spittle and vitriol?

But what's in it for Associated? A few pennies for some spare office space in these recessionary times won't make that much of a difference. Or is a longer term strategy to attack The Times on two fronts in the pipeline?

It was Independent, but no longer. Remember this date, it's the day the dream finally died.

US Newspaper industry contracting at alarming rate

The newspaper industry in the U.S. continues to shrink at an alarming rate. According to the Newspaper Association of America,, total industry advertising (both print and online) in the third quarter was $8.9 billion, down 18 percent from the year before. The oniine portion of that was $750 million, down 3 percent. So far in the first three quarters of 2008, the industry’s total advertising revenues have shrunk by $5 billion to $27.8 billion.

Print advertising has been declining for ten straight quarters, but this marks only the second quarter that online advertising also went down. More concerning is that the overall rate of decline seems to be accelerating. Here is the percentage change in total newspaper advertising for the past five quarters:

3Q07: -7.4%
4Q07: -10.3%
1Q08: -12.85%
2Q08: -15.11%
3Q08: -18.11%

The fourth quarter will probably be worse.

Social Media and the business world

We've all heard lots and lots about social media and how it has become an indispensable part of marketers' armoury. We at Market Evolution are good example of this as we use social media techniques to enable a conversation with and between consumers for market research purposes.

But I for one have always been slightly confused by who is using what and what for?

Well help is at hand. A very helpful guy called Peter Kim has put together this useful directory of social media corporate users and uses. Thanks Peter

Click here to read

There's always one spoiling the fun for everyone else.....

A cheeky ad by the Sun gloating about Britain winning more medals than Australia at the Beijing Olympics, using a twist on the "Where the bloody hell are you?" campaign, has been banned by the ASA following a single complaint.

The regulator considered the word "bloody" to be a swearword and that it was "irresponsible" to reproduce in a medium where children could see it, and told The Sun not to use the word "bloody" on posters in the future.

3 things spring immediately to mind.

Bloody is used in headlines on the front page of several newspapers, which are available for purchase in newsagents, where many children have been spotted before buying sweets and chocolate, and newspapers are often to be found lying around in millions of households on a daily basis. I'm looking at the front page of today's Daily Mirror and Times newspapers, and I'd rather be explaining to my kids what "bloody" meant and the right and wrong context to use it in, than explaining what "Monster raped his two daughters" and "Rape father jailed over daughter's 9 children" meant.

A single complaint is therefore sufficient to allow the ASA to ponder whether the sensibilities of the nation have been offended? 48 million people aged 16 or over in the UK, and a single complaint suffices? That's got to be nonsense surely. I find Gordon Brown offensive, so if he ever appears on a piece of Labour Party marketing communication, does that mean I can get him banned from future use?

Finally, it's The Sun. And it made me smile. Which is pretty good going in today's gloomy world.

Frank talking from Roger Alton, Editor of the Independent

I'm never slow to praise frank talking, as I've felt for a while now that those who are bluffing their way through life always try hardest to hide behind a veil of unnecessary management speak and overly complicated presentation charts.

On MediaGuardian today, a great piece from Roger Alton, about the perilous state of the Independent, particularly after putting the price up to £1 and losing 16% of daily circulation year-on-year. Here is the link to the original article:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2008/nov/24/independent-alton-price-rise

Two things to comment on. In the same way that bears like the woods, and the Pope likes to encourage lots of children, raising the cover price of any newspaper will lose sale - it's only the magnitude of the loss that is up for debate. If the paper is good enough, and provides sufficient perceived value for the additional pennies, then the losses can be minimal. In the case of the Independent, it looks like it's a bridge too far, and will only get worse given the additional editorial job-cuts in the pipeline.

Mr Alton's quote is priceless though, and hats off for plain talking....

"Asked if he regretted the decision to raise the Independent's cover price in September, he said: "Take a wild guess! We were aware of the risks when we did it and the ice cold winds of the recession have increased to gale force more or less from that day.

From the bottom of the market to charge the most was always very risky. It's made us very vulnerable.

If I could do anything to reverse [the ensuing circulation fall], literally anything - I'd saw off my right fucking forearm - I would."

I'd have guessed at a 10% plus decline from a move to a cover price of £1 without any consumer research, based purely on 11 years of cover price movement in the UK market. This does illustrate the value of market research coupled with experience when it comes to making serious commercial decisions. Do it blindly, and repent at your leisure, giving you ample time to self-flagellate with one or both of your hands.

Behind the numbers, we must not forget the people

I haven't worked through recessionary times like these before, having weathered the storm of the early 1990s inside a particularly cosy Ivory Tower, emerging blinking into a commercial world that was just beginning to find its feet again.

Reading the financial pages today, the view from the UK and the US is both interesting and alarming. Having bailed out the financial sector, the US is facing the triple whammy of the 3 largest car manufacturers holding out the begging bowl for federal cash to save themselves, with Ford, GM and Chrysler bosses appearing on Capitol Hill to try and secure a rescue package before they run out of money to pay the bills. A nice irony pointed out by Congressman Sherman was that they had all flown in by corporate jets to ask for cash, but this shouldn't mask the human cost of hundreds of thousands of jobs at risk if the big 3 are allowed to go under.

When MG Rover went under a few years back, the knock on effect on smaller suppliers further down the food chain was devastating in the West Midlands region. Imagining the knock-on effect if the Big 3 went down in the US should force a deal of some sort through one would hope.

Back in the UK, Mini are taking a month off from production in December, and Honda have announced a 2 month mothball for production in Swindon next year. With airfields across the country doubling up as car parks for unwanted new cars, this shouldn't be surprising, but somehow it still is. Jaguar are also asking for £1bn in interim loan finance, as Tata, their parent company struggles to finance the debt incurred to buy the luxury brands a couple of years ago.

On the other side of the pond, Citigroup shares have taken a battering this week, down 23% on Wednesday, 26% on Thursday and 20% on Friday, despite announcing a further 50,000 job cuts globally earlier in the week. Confidence, or lack of it, seems to be driving the share price down, as the fundamental financial health of the business is apparently reasonable. Though what this means anymore is debatable, the rules of the game have changed so much in the last few months that the pen and the word are indeed mightier than the sword. Confidence in the markets is everything, and without it, not even the mightiest financial institutions are safe. Again, the human cost if Citigroup implodes would be immense.

Finally, what to say about Woolworths? For too long now, a brand in chaos, with no clear consumer proposition and massive product ranges displayed in chaotic shelving. The commercial situation is clear - without a rescue deal being agreed with the bank syndicate providing the existing debt mountain, the business will be out of cash before Christmas and likely to be in administration before the month is out. The human cost is also clear, 30,000 staff in 840 stores face a Christmas without a job to return to.

Our predictions for newspapers in 2009 and beyond

Cheery news to end the working week with the publication of a report from Enders Analysis into the ad market for the next 5 years.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2008/nov/21/advertising-pressandpublishing

The UK print ad market will be the worst hit of all media sectors in 2009, down 21%, with newspaper display ads down 22% and classifieds down about 19%. Growth will not return to the print ad market until some time after 2013.

Next year digital media revenue growth will crash to just 2.1%, a long way off from previous years of explosive growth.

So, if the soothsayers have read their tea leaves correctly, it's going to be an even tougher couple of years for the newspaper sector than previously feared. We've been tracking the on-going job losses in the sector over the last week or so, with this week seeing Trinity Mirror announce a pay freeze and disappearing bonus double whamming, and the Irish times announcing 60 job losses as the situation worsens across the Irish Sea.

What does it actually mean though? Our predictions for the next 2 years are as follows.......

Costs will continue to be cut, and anything not nailed down will be jettisoned as newspapers pare expenditure to the bone.

Digital is not going to make up for the double digit drops in print ad revenue, and digital teams will also be cut back.

Functions that traditionally have been held in-house will begin to be outsourced throughout 2009.

Agencies who can offer decent revenue opportunities will be best positioned to help build new revenue opportunities from existing audiences.

At least one national newspaper will disappear from newsagents by the end of 2009.

Newspapers with courage and vision, who invest time in proper commercial partnerships with smart agencies will reap the benefits in the short term, there will still be money to be made out of audiences, but the days of sitting back and taking display and classified advertising bookings have gone for good.

Newspapers will survive, as strong brands with loyal audiences can always be profitable, but skilled management is essential.

It's going to be an interesting year.

Great Disappearing ad revenue and headcount reduction....... Part 3

The long running Slimfast diet at the Independent titles in London looks to be continuing, with reports today that another 90 jobs are being cut from the already pared to the bone business.

With reports of the monthly losses varying from £1million to £2million, it's a newspaper with serious financial problems, which can only be increasing in severity with ad revenues down by 20-30% at its larger circulating competitive newspaper rivals.

The only positive to take from this is that with commercial office space costs dropping equally quickly, the inevitable downsizing from the waterside Canary Wharf HQ into a smaller and cosier office floor elsewhere, will be a positive contribution to the cost-cutting exercise.

"The Independent - it is, are you" - was an iconic brand campaign which made individual readers feel that they were being spoken to on a one-to-one basis. At the current rate of progress, it's getting close to being that in reality. Will the last person to leave please turn out the lights?

and now for something lighter

For all you sophisticated marketers out there take a minute to read about a new and increasing powerful media.............

Consider taking Jenaé up on her offer to wear your startup shirt and talk about your company for a day. It’s $75, and she posts videos on her site, YouTube, Seesmic and Viddler, posts pictures on Flickr and tweets about it all as well.

You have to send her the shirt two weeks in advance, and afterwards she gives it away.

'It consists of me being your walking advertisement as I wear your company shirt and showcase anything else you send me. I spread the news via Twitter, Flickr, YouTube, Viddler, Seesmic and my website, showcasing who you are, what you do, and how others can do business with you. For each, I create a showcase video where right on the show, I open your package, talk about your company, then wear your shirt and spread the news. The day after the company is showcased, it will be listed under our shirt & swag graveyard where others can buy the paraphernalia I showcased.'

Tempted?

"The great disappearing ad revenue and headcount adventure - Part 2"

It didn't take as long as I thought it would do for "TGDARAHA" to return, a matter of only 45 minutes.....

Haymarket has just cut 50 jobs across the business.

Though in better news for staff, mediaguardian is reporting that NI has rebuffed a truce offer from DMGT over the London freesheet wars. Any truce would undoubtedly have led to further job losses.

This said, given how bad the ad market is for paid titles, let alone free newspapers, it can only be a matter of time before there is some sort of consolidation or deal between NI and DMGT. Can't it?

Our first part in a hopefully not too regular series - "The great disappearing ad revenue and headcount adventure - Part 1"

Every day brings further raised eyebrows in our office, and I'm sure in many others across media-land.

A quick summary of media news in the last 48 hours:

CondeNet - slashing jobs across the board to deal with the slackening of digital revenue growth.

Johnston Press - 15% decline in ad revenues for the first 10 months of 2008, with 50% fall in property advertising.

DMGT - cutting 300 of what were previously the safest jobs in newspapers.

Time Out - cutting 8% of staff (OK, this is only 13 people, but it's another indicator that all advertising revenue is shrinking).

Trinity Mirror - 20% decline in underlying group advertising revenues since June, and further cost cutting planned for 2009, also showing similar near 50% decline in property advertising.

The latest NRS figures are released tomorrow, which will provide further ammunition for many newspaper execs to load up the guns and find a dark corner to sit in, as the figures will reflect the ongoing circulation decline for almost all titles and show readership levels falling in tandem (though slightly lagging) with circulation.

It's not going to be a happy Xmas in most of media-land I fear, but in times of darkness, plan for the return of the light. It's a cyclical business and always has been. Digital may have masked the traditional curve, but you can bet your last Government owned bank dollar that the good times will return at some point. Those businesses with the intelligence and balls to back investment now, and plan smartly for the future, will be best positioned to ride out the storm.

For the rest, take solace (either in quantum or smaller measures) that it could be worse, you could be an estate agent. Remember them? Annoying branded cars driven by idiots with scant respect for other road users. As I type, someone, somewhere, is probably setting up a memorial or fundraising concert in support of this former industry sector.....

New age of austerity marketing

As the economic environment worsens it seems that marketers are rushing to re position their brands.

It's no longer acceptable (or sensible) to be flash.

Spending on expensive items (even for those that can afford it) is OUT!

Affordable and sensible is IN............

Great piece in the New York Times that captures this new paradigm very well

Barack Obama - what his victory means to me

Here at Market Evolution we keep away from politics preferring to focus on consumers etc. However please allow us one small political foray. The Barack Obama election victory seems worthy of a comment. But rather than comment directly we wanted to share with you a very personal account from a colleague living in New York city:

Friends --

I know this election of ours has almost felt like an election of
yours but I suspect you believed more in your minds what we have felt
in our hearts, that a rejection of change would have hastened
America's demise. But that hasn't happened and I wanted to give you a
taste of what it feels like and sounds like to be in New York
tonight. It's half past one and the streets are crowded with people,
three deep on the sidewalk. New Yorkers have climbed on their roofs
and on to their fire escapes, there's dancing on the streets, dancing
in front of cars. There's the ceaseless noise of cheering, even -
suddenly - bagpipes playing. Tonight, we even forgive the bagpipes.
Every few seconds comes the blare of another car horn and more
screams of Obama, of Yes We Can, more whoops of utter joy.

I've been here, on and off, for more than 19 years through two
Clinton victories, big wins for the Yankees and Knicks, a dozen or
more New Year's Eves and nothing has been like this, nothing has come
even close. This is the sound of a city set free for the first time
since September 11, 2001. This is us exhaling at last. For eight
years, New York has felt like another country. What counted for
America has been owned by others and governed for others. Everything
the Bush Administration did with its exclusionary policies, its
bigotry and intolerance, its religious fascism, its economic
arrogance was done to us, not for us. Obama can't solve everything
but he has already made the greatest city in the nation feel like it
belongs to America again and he has made someone who has only been an
American for 5 years feel like he belongs for the first time. Up to
now, my belief in citizenship had been shaken by a question about
what kind of country I had joined. By showing us the best of all our
selves, Barack Obama has silenced that doubt not just for me or for
us in New York, but for millions of Americans who can have faith in
America again.

And now I'm going to bed.

Campaign for clarity of writing - Part One

This from Marketing Week:

"Integrated Voice of the Customer Architecture

World class companies have recognized significant value of connecting the Voice of the Customer (VOC) to downstream business results, and upstream to Voice of the Employee and to other key enablers. Maritz is a thought leader in designing and constructing Integrated VOC Architectures that integrate all of a company's VOC touch points and link them to financial and other business results, as well as to upstream enablers.

Clients partnering with Maritz benefit from best practice approaches gleaned from over 30 years of experience in Customer Experience work as well as cutting-edge advances in the state of the art of linkage modeling, convergent analysis, and business blueprinting."

There has to be a better way to write this text, without using the type of language and jargon that just smacks of "in-the-club-ism". For me, it's using language to preserve an air of mystique and commercial bafflement, to justify a large invoice. Clarity of thought should translate to clarity of writing, and clarity of implementation and results.

Maybe I'm wrong. What do you think?

Trade marketing, the innocent casualties

Thanks to MediaGuardian for bringing the latest battle in the coffee wars to our attention.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/mediamonkeyblog/2008/nov/04/newsinternational-pressandpublishing

The in-store Starbucks deal for The Times was a groundbreaking piece of trade marketing deal making back in 2004 which has since spawned a multitude of imitators.

A genuine sales driver with the print newspaper available in-store when customers had time to buy and read it, the deal recently crumbled in unclear circumstances, with the vacuum left by The Times being filled by The Guardian.

Now the in-Wapping Starbucks franchises, previously providing subsidised Lattes to the overworked NI staff, have been replaced by a rival, as NI completes the divorce from the US coffee giant.

There's a lot of coffee drunk at Wapping, it would be interesting to see how much money Starbucks made out of the locations on an annual basis. Bet you a £1 they hadn't included this calculation in any discussions about the future of the wider in-store deal......

The Independent - predicting the future

The ongoing share-buying struggle between Denis O'Brien and Sir Anthony O'Reilly over Independent News & Media has been featured on the blog at various points over the last 18 months or so. D O'B is now the second largest shareholder, and is approaching the c30% ownership levels which would automatically trigger a takeover situation.

In essence, Sir A O'R has built the business up globally, but media interest has recently centred on the perenially loss making UK Independent titles. The rest of the empire is subject to the same market depressions seen everywhere, but are in much ruder health than the London based titles. D O'B is not impressed with the continued investment in the London losses, and wants to force a sale, and maybe even remove A O'R from the helm.

This situation is moving ever closer to a conclusion though as the credit crisis continues, as the £1.1 billion INM borrowings start to weigh down the overall group. Six months from now, £200 million of bond needs to be redeemed, which is prompting speculation of disposals to generate cash.

With the estimated £10m+ losses annually, the Independent (UK) titles aren't going to be raising cash for the group if they are disposed of. Talks to save further cost by merging back room functions with rival publishers are apparently ongoing, but even this smacks of rearranging deckchairs while the iceberg moves ever closer. With a cover price of £1 and full rate sales of only 128,738 in September, there's not much going for the Indy titles.

Would you buy them? On the plus side, a nice brand with a niche audience, but not niche enough to attract decent ad rates. On the negative side, a commercial model that promises to break even one day, but never achieves it. Our view, a step too far from a purely commercial basis.

The Independent may be the headline in the media coverage of INM and D O'B, but it's a distraction. The real battle here is on re-financing the debt without selling the family silver to do so. Interesting 6 months ahead for the Group as a whole. The big question is on who you would put your money on to come through 2009 on top, on Sir Anthony, or D O'B?

BP - profits an outrage

I never thought that I would find myself thinking let alone writing this but am I alone in thinking what an absolute outrage it is that BP profits have risen 148% whilst we have suffered 'at the pump'.

BP has seen its latest quarterly profits more than double, buoyed by record high oil prices.

Reporting its results for the three months from July to September, BP's replacement cost profit totalled $10bn (£6.4bn), up 148% from a year earlier.

Isnt it about time that 'utilities' stopped making out at our expense? BP leads the way, but the supermarkets, the power companies and the water companies are all just as bad.

Windfall tax?