Welcome to Market Revolution's blog
Thank you for visiting Market Revolution's blog.
We live and work in exciting times - revolutionary times. Technology continues to recast the media industry.
The extraordinary advance of affordable personal digital technology and the stellar rise of social networks are both distrupting and transforming the media market making this a unique moment to be involved in the convergence sectors we focus on.
This is also our place to ruminate and comment on the world as we see it, we hope you enjoy and please join in.
Friday, 30 November 2007
Monday, 26 November 2007
Good morning and welcome to a new week and another story on Google.
This one appeared in The Sunday Times a couple of week ago. Written my our friend John Arlidge its an excellent 'take' on whats up in the Googleplex.
John raises some serious issues for us all about our personal privacy.
Thursday, 22 November 2007
If you look at the figures below each of our examples generate well over 50% of traffic from abroad.
Traffic outside the UK accounted for 61% of Guardian Unlimited's traffic or 11,186,395 users during October, with the remaining 7,221,363 users in the UK.
Mail Online, recorded 9,697,917 unique users from overseas, or 72%, and 3,833,257 users within the UK.
Sun Online's six web properties have 5,006,572 unique users outside the UK, or 54% of its user base, with 4,187,434 UK users.
Times Online's recorded 63% of its traffic from overseas, equivalent to 7,880,105 unique users, with 4,561,777 users in the UK.
Telegraph.co.uk recording 6,721,354 unique users or 61% outside the UK and 4,386,671 domestic users.
What does it mean?
Well it means that UK newspapers are strong and respected brands that travel well.
It also means that domestic advertisers will worry that 50%+ audience isnt relevant - price negiotation will surely follow
US Newspaper ad sales continue their long decline, down 7.4 percent in the third quarter.
Ok this is a well established trend but what we all really want to know is will the shift to online replace the lost print ad revenues?.
NO - and not by a long way
While online ads keep growing up 21 percent to $773 million industrywide, it is not enough to make up for the decline in print ads. Print ads in the third quarter in US were $10.1 billion. That is $1 billion less than they were in the same quarter last year. Meanwhile, online newspaper ad sales rose only by $135 million. After six straight quarters of decline, print ad sales are at 1997 levels—lower if you adjust for inflation.
Monday, 19 November 2007
From that viewpoint, it's an easy target. Operating in so many countries, it's always going to be exposed to varying standards of corporate responsibility. Child labour, death squads operating against union members on company property, chemical contamination and water theft, tonight's rap sheet is long and serious.
At this point, I need to admit I'm a fan of Mark Thomas. Given my commercial/capitalist existence, and central/right wing clients, I'm sure the feeling would be one way, but I do admire and respect his tenacity and focus.
As you would expect Coke didn't fare well in the programme, and as it developed, I did wonder how the PR team in Atlanta would handle the fallout. In the end, they issued a statement saying that just because allegations were repeated, it didn't mean they were true, and they urged consumers to visit the company website for the real facts.
Who to believe? Like everything in life, apart from a zebra crossing and a grand piano, nothing is black and white, just varying degrees of grey. Interesting for me here is the battle between marketing and PR. One pumping the red and white message across the globe, the other ducking and diving to deal with TV shows like Dispatches. One trying to generate a desired consumer response, one trying to minimise the effect of an undesired consumer response.
Few organisations have a seamless link between PR and Marketing, but in this digital age of rapid and fluid consumer communication, it's only getting more not less important. Synergy between the 2 functions needs to become a focus, but are the disciplines getting closer or not right now? Any evidence out there?
Friday, 16 November 2007
Media reports said the cult members believed the world would end sometime in May next year.
For a full screen version please click on the slideshare icon bottom right
Having read the piece its heartening that services are arriving but it strikes me the mobile VOIP thing is all still alittle clunky, too many stages, too many clicks, some delay etc. That said mobile VOIP has arrived and we can begin to watch our mobile bills come tumbling down - which is no bad thing
Tuesday, 13 November 2007
myfootballclub.com was launched earlier in the year, with the intention of getting people to buy a share in a "yet-to-be-bought" football club for £35 per share. Get enough people signed up, and then the collective could go buy a club. Nothing that radical there, that's what supporters trusts exist to do.
The twist with this though is that there was no club at the outset, but more radically, all share owners would have a say in the running of the club - transfers, team selection and major club decisions. The digital platform would allow all share holders to vote on everything, meaning either chaos or consensus.
Today, with a warchest of £700,000 myfootballclub.com has announced it's buying Ebbsfleet United FC, currently 9th in the top division of non-league football. Managed by former Coventry City centre-back Liam Daish, Ebbsfleet are about to become part of a unique digital - sport - social community experiment. Liam will keep the shareholders updated with all information, coach the players, and then the fans will pick the team.
Success or disaster? This real life Championship Manager will be interesting to follow over the rest of the season. I'm hooked already
Thursday, 8 November 2007
Since jan 07 its gone from 7% of online use to an amazing 22% in july (most recent available figures)
Additionally just look at these numbers;
154m use daily
3bn minutes a day
8bn pages served a day
Google and its 33 partners in the Open Handset Alliance are betting that together they can reshape the mobile phone industry by offering a free (Linux-based) mobile phone operating system and software "stack" dubbed Android.
Will it succeed?
Good question and as always in depends you ask:
On the nay side - Symbian's VP of strategy John Forsyth said Google lacked experience. Making a "mobile OS is a very specialized form of rocket science," Forsyth said. "It's not search rocket science." Forsyth later went on to say that alliances like Google's Open Handset Alliance are formed every few months--"a bit like the common cold. It keeps coming round and then we go back to business." Ouch
To be fair Symbian (smartphone operating system vendor) have a lot (maybe the most) to lose as Google and its (experienced) pals is offering not only an open but also a free operating platform to developers that on the surface at least could move the market on alot.
Microsoft (another smartphone operating system vendor) were also alittle defensive about Google's Android project: "It really sounds like they are getting a whole bunch of people together to build a phone and that's something we've been doing for five years,"
Is Google's approach new? - well no - its reminiscent of Nokia’s efforts over the last few years with its Series 60 software which is open to third party developers. Yankee Group, a US-based research firm, says: “Taken alone, there is nothing fundamentally unique or new about the Alliance. It is reminiscent of other structures such as the Open Mobile Terminal Platform (OMTP) initiative, Mobile Services Architecture (MSA), and several Linux-oriented initiatives. “
Does the collaborative approach reduces the chances of failure? - well no “The telecoms landscape is littered with failed or wobbly alliances and overlapping initiatives,” says Martin Garner, mobile practice leader at Ovum, the specialist telecoms consultancy. “Most of the players in the alliance have plenty of first hand experience in this and, being cynical for a moment, it costs a vendor very little at this stage to join the alliance and say nice things about it.”
Per Lindberg, analyst at Dresdner Kleinwort sums it up best.''The Open Handset Alliance is a dream scenario, where everyone will work together, no one will be greedy and software will be free. It is not going to happen,” “Motorola and Samsung are not really going to start sharing software. But what will happen is that Google’s search, maps, email and other applications will be pre-installed on a lot of phones.”
We agree with you Per - in our view this is a stealth tactic to get Google apps on lots and lots of phones so they can extend their ad serving services to mobile and complete the set.
So Android is not only a good name its an appropriate one as it has the very real potential to be a very real and scary monster!
Smart (but somewhat scary) boys
Wednesday, 7 November 2007
Tuesday, 6 November 2007
On reflection though, this is another sign that the digital world continues to radically change the traditional music business model. The Kylie brand now covers music, underwear, fashion, perfume, touring, CDs, DVDs and downloads - and social networking is a brave but possibly inspired digital extension.
Knowing your audience is crucial to success, and if Kylieworld takes off, not only will Kylie know her audience, but she'll have them in one place, known by name, in a relationship and individually addressable. A marketer's dream.
We'll be signing up, to see how we get treated. And whether we get to wear some sequins and feathers in the office.
Nyhedsavisen hires Metro hawker:
Transfers of sports stars are common but in Denmark the best known free daily hawker recently has been tranfered from Metro to competitor Nyhedsavisen.
Brazilian hawker Jura, famous for his enthusiastic behaviour in Copenhagen and distributing to bikers and pedestrians in the central square moved from the orange/green brand to the blue of Nyhedsavisen
Jura was prominentely used by Metro on the website, in promotion video’s and was even used to train other hawkers.
Nyhedsavisen director Morten Nissen Nielsen told Newspaper Innovation: “It is great news for Nyhedsavisen. We have passed Metro in the big cities in terms of readership, and the recruitment of their no. 1 hawker is just one of those smaller signs, of the changes happening. People who are now getting Nyhedsavisen from Jura call it an upgrade”.
The move is an indication of the increased competition in Denmark. Last readership data showed 24timer, Metro and Nyhedsavisen as the three best read papers in Denmark (see previous post), with newcomers 24timer and Nyhedsavisen seeing sharp increases in readership.
While Nyhedsavisen in third nationwide in readership it was no. 1 in Copenhagen, Aarhus and Odense according to the September TNS research. In those three markets the paper had 388,000 readers - 24timer had 324,000 readers, Metro 304,000 and Urban 279,000. The first paid paper was Politiken with 262,000 readers.
The moves also shows that Nyhedsavisen is - like 24timer - relying on public transport distribution more. When both papers started, they said they would mainly use home delivery. This system, however, means a low number of readers per copy, so public transport is used to increase readership
Friday, 2 November 2007
"When Google went public in August 2004, many were impressed that the stock opened at a premium to the price paid in what was then (and in some respects still is) the unheard of direct auction IPO. Some may have dreamed of greatness for Google stock, but if you’d suggested then that Google would pass through $700 a share (it closed at $108.31 on its first day) you would have been derided as a lunatic. On October 31, Google stock passed through $700 a share, becoming the 5th largest listed company in the United States.
A search engine that started under the name of “BackRub” by two Stanford students in 1996 is now on paper worth more than corporate giants including the global banking conglomerate the Citi Group, Proctor and Gamble and Walmart. Google is worth more than the big three US car makers put together, and then some. We may obsess at times over Google, and there is never any shortage of debate in relation to Google’s many activities, but no matter what your views, this is a remarkable achievement.
Google’s growth to date knows no bounds. The company continues to push into new markets, or even creates new markets where none have existed before hand. From mobile phones, to television and radio advertising, software and online software substitutes, the list goes on. This week they’ve even managed to revolutionize the entire social networking market, and all in the space of a couple of days.
As Google’s march forward continues, could Google ultimately become America’s biggest company? The stock growth rates in the following chart would suggest that the answer is yes:
To become the biggest listed company in America Google doesn’t need to reach the (much derided) figure Henry Blodget made of $2000 a share, to beat Exxon Mobil at todays market price, Google stock needs to hit $1572.50 a share.
That figure may sound insane, but we can look at previous stock milestones to chart how long it may take to get to that figure. Google stock grew from $200 to $700 a share in 30 months. It needs an increase of just short of $900 a share so based on the 30 months it will take 54 months (or 4.5 years) for Google to pass Exxon Mobil based on XOM’s current cap. However if we look at Google’s short term growth we see that GOOG stock hit $500 for the first time on June 1st this year. The $200 leap took 5 months. Presuming a similar growth rate Google will become America’s largest company by approximately October 2009.
Growth rates are rarely static so calculating possible time frames is guesswork at best. Exxon Mobil has seen healthy stock increases over the last 5 years so it is likely that its market cap will increase. And yet Google’s growth rate continues to accelerate as well; it took 23 days for Google’s stock to increase from $600 to $700 a share. Analysts are already talking about $800+
Some will deride the notion that Google may become America’s largest company by the end of this decade, and I don’t completely blame them, however the evidence would suggest that Google is heading in that direction. Google is already arguably the most powerful company in the history of the world, controlling so much of our daily lives; it’s not unreasonable to think that it may become the richest company one day as well."