Our predictions for newspapers in 2009 and beyond

Cheery news to end the working week with the publication of a report from Enders Analysis into the ad market for the next 5 years.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2008/nov/21/advertising-pressandpublishing

The UK print ad market will be the worst hit of all media sectors in 2009, down 21%, with newspaper display ads down 22% and classifieds down about 19%. Growth will not return to the print ad market until some time after 2013.

Next year digital media revenue growth will crash to just 2.1%, a long way off from previous years of explosive growth.

So, if the soothsayers have read their tea leaves correctly, it's going to be an even tougher couple of years for the newspaper sector than previously feared. We've been tracking the on-going job losses in the sector over the last week or so, with this week seeing Trinity Mirror announce a pay freeze and disappearing bonus double whamming, and the Irish times announcing 60 job losses as the situation worsens across the Irish Sea.

What does it actually mean though? Our predictions for the next 2 years are as follows.......

Costs will continue to be cut, and anything not nailed down will be jettisoned as newspapers pare expenditure to the bone.

Digital is not going to make up for the double digit drops in print ad revenue, and digital teams will also be cut back.

Functions that traditionally have been held in-house will begin to be outsourced throughout 2009.

Agencies who can offer decent revenue opportunities will be best positioned to help build new revenue opportunities from existing audiences.

At least one national newspaper will disappear from newsagents by the end of 2009.

Newspapers with courage and vision, who invest time in proper commercial partnerships with smart agencies will reap the benefits in the short term, there will still be money to be made out of audiences, but the days of sitting back and taking display and classified advertising bookings have gone for good.

Newspapers will survive, as strong brands with loyal audiences can always be profitable, but skilled management is essential.

It's going to be an interesting year.